Phil Pepper Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Presentation to 2010 LEARN Conference March 29, 2010

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The Economic outlook for MississippiPhil PepperMississippi Institutions of Higher LearningPresentation to 2010 LEARN ConferenceMarch 29, 2010

12009 Economic StatsMississippiUnited States2009 Populations Estimate (US Census)2,951,996307,006,5502009 Total Personal Income, Billions (US BEA)$88.9$12,015.52009 Unemployment Rate (US BLS)9.6%9.3%2009 Unemployment Rate U-4 (US BLS)10.2%9.7%2008 Workforce Participation Rate, 16 yrs+ (US Census)60.1%66.0%2008 Per Capita Income (US BEA)$30,103$39,1382

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4Mississippi Nonfarm Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics51,160.6 May 001,108.3 Jun 031,085.5 Feb 101,159.0 Jan 0856Mississippi Employment by Major Industry Sector, 1990 - 2010Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

67Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHL.

Average Annual Growth In Real GDP During Periods of U.S. Expansion/Contraction

Trough-To-Peak78Slowing Income Growth in THE USAverage Annual Growth In Real Total Personal IncomeDuring Periods of U.S. Expansion

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Source: U.S. Bureau of the CensusMississippi real value of Residential building permits991010Workforce Participation Rate

Percentage of Population 18-64 in the Workforce

1011MS Consumers Are Not SpendingSource: FDIC111212Sales Tax Transfers TrendsRed Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 June 2009(Preliminary)2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.Transfers to the G.F. -- Growth Over Prior Year

121313Individual Income Tax TrendsRed Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 June 2009(Preliminary)2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year

13Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 June 2009 (Preliminary). 2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.

General fund Trends14Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year1415Growth Over Prior Year: Withholdings and Gross Retail Sales Tax Transfers

March 2010 is preliminary15summaryGrowth in the US and MS will be below the long-term average for the foreseeable futureJob growth in particular will be anemic in MSState revenue growth will be slow with greater frequency of negative yearsRestructuring of State verses Federal government -- politics, politics, politicsEducation, Education, Education

161617QuestionsorComments?

17Chart10.0490.0520.0490.0760.0290.0370.0310.0550.0350.0240.0290.030.0230.024

USMSTrough-to- PeakAverage Annualized Growth

Sheet1USMS1961:1-1969:44.90%5.20%1970:4-1973:44.90%7.60%1975:1-1980:12.90%3.70%1980:3-1981:33.10%5.50%1982:4-1990:33.50%2.40%1991:1-2001:12.90%3.00%2001:4-2007:42.30%2.40%