Omställning mot Hållbar Utveckling - vår tids stora ledarskapsutmaning Göran Carstedt...

Omställning mot Hållbar Utveckling

- vår tids stora ledarskapsutmaning

Göran Carstedt

Stadsbyggnadsdagarna, Mars 25 2009

Ledarskap

Meningsfullt

Lärorikt

Värt människors fulla engagemang

Ledarskap

Lösa vår tids utmaningar

Skapa tillsammans

”I think there are good reasons for suggesting that the modern age has ended.

Today, many things indicate that we are going through a transitional period, when it seems that something is on the way out and something else is painfully being born.

It is as if something were crumbling, decaying andexhausting itself – while something else, stillindistinct, were arising from the rubble.”

Vaclav Havel, Philadelphia 1994

The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed

New Rules of the GameGC 1992

IT

Information Technology

Interaction Technology

GC 1997

The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed

New Rules of the Game

New demographics – ageing babyboomers

GC 1992

A Graying Planet ( Retirees per 100 workers 1975-2025)

USA 16 29

France 21 36

Japan 12 49

China 8 30

Brazil 7 15 GC 2005

The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed

New Rules of the Game

New demographics – ageing babyboomers

New economics – prices down, capital abundant

New lifestyles – global and localNew psychology – people anxious

GC 1992

GC 97

Old Logic New Logic

Things Ideas, knowledge

GC 97

Things Ideas, knowledge

Old Logic New Logic

NewtonianOrg. as machine

HierarchiesStructure

BossAction

TeachingCapital growthInfo technologyMarket share

Conquer Nature

QuantumOrg. as communities

NetworksProcess

FacilitatorInteractionLearning

People growthInteraction technology

Mind shareHarmony with Nature

Att se Världen med Nya Ögon

Från ett liv som mestadels organiserats åt oss

GC 90

Från ett liv som mestadels organiserats åt oss

En värld där vi alla måste skapa vår egen framtid

GC 90

Framtiden

… inte förutbestämd

Skall skapas…

GC 2000

Hur skall vi Organisera oss?

Co-create

Att skapa tillsammans

Vem skulle saknas ossom vi inte fanns?

En Meningsfull Uppgift

Vi skall möjliggöra att …

• Kunder …

• Medarbetare …

• Samhället ….

• Aktieägarna ….

”He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how.”

(Nietzsche)

What is our company good for ?

GC 1992

What is good for our company ?

or

En Meningsfull Uppgift

En av mänsklighetensstarkaste drivkrafter

Dagens Ledarskapsutmaningar

• Energi/klimatfrågan

• Organisationsfrågan

• …

• …

SUPERTRAMP

Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change

Past 400 000 years from ”the Vostok Ice Core”Past 400 000 years from ”the Vostok Ice Core” Year 2100 ”base case” 700 ppm

X

X

2004 375 ppm

Global temperature and CO2 change

Planet earth and population

”We need a new way of thinking to solve the problems caused by the old way of thinking.”

Albert Einstein

Living systems follow cycles

Industrial-age systems do not

Source: Peter Senge & Göran Carstedt, MIT Sloan Management Review, 2001

The new thinking is about

• Creating desired futures• Back casting from sustainability principles• Cross border collaborations• Changing the rules of the game• Shifting attention and measurements to

– Optimizing wholes – not parts– What is important – not what is measurable– Long term consequences – not only short

term resultsGC 2005

The challenge

Global GHG emissions

• Must be reduced 50-85% by 2050

• To limit global warming to +2°C

Source: IPCC (2007)

GHG Emissions – how are we doing?

Global emissions 1970-2004: +70%

1990-2004: + 25%

Business as usual 2000-2030: +25-90%

Source: IPCC

GHG Emissions 1990-2004

Change Total

Europe 15 -0.6% 4.2 bln tCO2eq

Japan +6.5% 1.3 bln tCO2eq

USA +16% 7.1 bln tCO2eq

Australia +25% 0.5 bln tCO2eq

Source: UNFCCC, 2006

Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012:

Germany -18.7%

UK -15.7%

Sweden -7.4%

Italy +12.1%

Ireland +25.4%

Spain +52.3%

GHG Emissions Europe: 1990-2005

Source: EEA (2007)

Emissions – targets & commitments

EU27: 20% 2020 (1990)

Germany: 36% 2020 (1990)

UK: 26% 2020 (1990)

France: 25% 2020 (1990)

Sweden: 30% 2020 (1990)

Japan 6% 2012 (1990)

CO2 Emissions per Person

India 1 (ton per year)

China 5

Sweden 7

Germany 10

USA/Canada 20

World 4 (can absorb 1,5)

Från ord till handling

Några exempel

Lee Scott, Wal M

art

The environment is as Katrina – in slow motion

“Environmental problems are our problems…

There are not two worlds out there - a Wal Mart world and some other world…”

Lee Scott, Wal-Mart

Göran Carstedt 2007

What if we used our size and resources…

“…To make this country and earth an even better place for all of us – customers, coworkers, our children, generations unborn.

What would that mean? Could we do it?”

Lee Scott, Wal-Mart

Göran Carstedt 2007

Our environmental goals at Wal-Mart are from now simple

and straightforward

• To be supplied 100 % by renewable energy

• To create zero waste

• To sell products that sustain our resources and environment

Göran Carstedt 2007

We will not be measured by our aspirations…

“…We will be measured by our actions.”

Lee Scott, Wal-Mart

Göran Carstedt 2007

IKEA goes renewable!

• Reduce energy consumption in 350 buildings by 25% against 2005 level

• Remaining 75% energy = 100% renewable

1st Deadline• 2009: 60% of buildings to use renewables and

be 15% more energy efficient• 2009: all home delivery trucks to use clean fuels

Göran Carstedt 2007

Levels of Commitment

• Defensive- It is not our fault

• Compliant- We’ll do only what we have to

• Managerial- It’s the business

• Strategic- It gives us a competitive edge

• Civil- We need to make sure that everybody does it

Göran Carstedt 2007

Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI)

”practical and measurable steps to reduce greenhouse

gas emissions”

Concentrated Solar Power

40 member cities and 13 affiliates

Göran Carstedt 2007

Clinton Climate Initiative- C40

• Retrofitting buildings

• Waste to Energy

• Transportation

• Seaports/Airports

• CO2 Footprint

Idrottsanläggningar 25-35%

• Ishallar, badhus och idrottshallar förbrukar 1 Twh per år– Lika mycket som Umeå ca. 112 000 invånare

• Investeringar på SEK 50 miljoner– Omedelbart minska 15% energianvändning

= SEK 100 mln per år i 10 år– Driftider för ventilation & belysning, anpassning av

luftflöden, kylmaskiner

(Energimyndigheten)

Angelica Castro Rodriguez, Transmilenio Company, Bogota, C40 Transport Workshop, London Dec 2007

Göran Carstedt 2007

The science is there

It is time to stop debating it and start dealing with it

M Bloomberg, Mayor New York, 2006

Göran Carstedt 2007

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

New York City’s Greenhouse Gas EmissionsCitywide emissions

+27%

-30%

30 % reductions target for 2030

2005 Level

Business as Usual forecast

for 2030

MIL

LIO

NS

OF

eC

O2 T

ON

S P

ER

YE

AR

Source: PLANYC – A GREENER, GREATER NEW YORK Göran Carstedt 2007

Innovation för ett Hållbart Samhälle

• Nya produkter• Nya processer• Nya affärsmodeller• Nya samarbeten• Nytt sätt att tänka

GC 2005

Green Jobs: Towards Decent work in a Sustainable, Low-

Carbon World

- UNEP, Sept 2008

The Appollo Alliance (NGOs, companies, United Auto Workers)

• Five million new American jobs would be created by investing a total of $500 billion over the next ten years in cleantech and renewables.

• Cut emissions by 30% by 2025 by which date a quarter of the country’s power needs would be met by renewables.

Dec, 08

“My presidency will mark a new chapter in American leadership on

climate change.Vigorously re-engage in

international climate negotiations, and enact a US-wide GHG cap and trade system with annual emissions

reduction targets.”- Barack Obama

Nike, Starbucks, Sun Microsystem, Timberland, and Levi Strauss

launched Business for Innovative Climate and Energy Policy to lobby for “swift and aggressive” climate

change legislation.

Nov, 08

UK- Climate Change Act (Dec 2008)

• First government to legally commit to reduce GHG by 80% by 2050 (Endorsed by the opposition)

• Three five-year carbon budgets with statutory targets and audits (sep. committee)

• Targets- interim/final, sector/technology, EU/UK, emission/offset

• Secretary of state for Energy and Climate Change (Ed Milliband)

• Estimated cost of 1-2% of GDP by 2050

Förändringskraft

Göran Carstedt 2007

”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they

aren’t stupid and they are not corrupt.

They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized

for yesterday’s.”

- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008

What if we don’t have an environmental problem, school,

health care, or a business problem…

…but an institutional problem?

GC 2001

What if…

our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we

are now meeting?

GC 2001

What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living

communities?

GC 2001

What if…

change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about

reconceiving?

GC 2001

GC 1997

What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind

being changed?

What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ?

GC 2001

Optimistor

Pessimist?

The Industrial Revolution- transformed our society

• no master plan

• no starting/end point

• not led by anyone

• not an initiative of any political, governmental or religious body

GC 2000

Industrial Revolutionen• The product of millions of small beginnings

• A process of making things better • Outpouring of human creativity

Changing Perceptions- among the many people

GC 2000

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