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Omställning mot Hållbar Utveckling
- vår tids stora ledarskapsutmaning
Göran Carstedt
Stadsbyggnadsdagarna, Mars 25 2009
Ledarskap
Meningsfullt
Lärorikt
Värt människors fulla engagemang
Ledarskap
Lösa vår tids utmaningar
Skapa tillsammans
”I think there are good reasons for suggesting that the modern age has ended.
Today, many things indicate that we are going through a transitional period, when it seems that something is on the way out and something else is painfully being born.
It is as if something were crumbling, decaying andexhausting itself – while something else, stillindistinct, were arising from the rubble.”
Vaclav Havel, Philadelphia 1994
The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed
New Rules of the GameGC 1992
IT
Information Technology
Interaction Technology
GC 1997
The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed
New Rules of the Game
New demographics – ageing babyboomers
GC 1992
A Graying Planet ( Retirees per 100 workers 1975-2025)
USA 16 29
France 21 36
Japan 12 49
China 8 30
Brazil 7 15 GC 2005
The New WorldThe electronic revolution – borderless, speed
New Rules of the Game
New demographics – ageing babyboomers
New economics – prices down, capital abundant
New lifestyles – global and localNew psychology – people anxious
GC 1992
GC 97
Old Logic New Logic
Things Ideas, knowledge
GC 97
Things Ideas, knowledge
Old Logic New Logic
NewtonianOrg. as machine
HierarchiesStructure
BossAction
TeachingCapital growthInfo technologyMarket share
Conquer Nature
QuantumOrg. as communities
NetworksProcess
FacilitatorInteractionLearning
People growthInteraction technology
Mind shareHarmony with Nature
Att se Världen med Nya Ögon
Från ett liv som mestadels organiserats åt oss
GC 90
Från ett liv som mestadels organiserats åt oss
En värld där vi alla måste skapa vår egen framtid
GC 90
Framtiden
… inte förutbestämd
Skall skapas…
GC 2000
Hur skall vi Organisera oss?
Co-create
Att skapa tillsammans
Vem skulle saknas ossom vi inte fanns?
En Meningsfull Uppgift
Vi skall möjliggöra att …
• Kunder …
• Medarbetare …
• Samhället ….
• Aktieägarna ….
”He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how.”
(Nietzsche)
What is our company good for ?
GC 1992
What is good for our company ?
or
En Meningsfull Uppgift
En av mänsklighetensstarkaste drivkrafter
Dagens Ledarskapsutmaningar
• Energi/klimatfrågan
• Organisationsfrågan
• …
• …
SUPERTRAMP
Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
Past 400 000 years from ”the Vostok Ice Core”Past 400 000 years from ”the Vostok Ice Core” Year 2100 ”base case” 700 ppm
X
X
2004 375 ppm
Global temperature and CO2 change
Planet earth and population
”We need a new way of thinking to solve the problems caused by the old way of thinking.”
Albert Einstein
Living systems follow cycles
Industrial-age systems do not
Source: Peter Senge & Göran Carstedt, MIT Sloan Management Review, 2001
The new thinking is about
• Creating desired futures• Back casting from sustainability principles• Cross border collaborations• Changing the rules of the game• Shifting attention and measurements to
– Optimizing wholes – not parts– What is important – not what is measurable– Long term consequences – not only short
term resultsGC 2005
The challenge
Global GHG emissions
• Must be reduced 50-85% by 2050
• To limit global warming to +2°C
Source: IPCC (2007)
GHG Emissions – how are we doing?
Global emissions 1970-2004: +70%
1990-2004: + 25%
Business as usual 2000-2030: +25-90%
Source: IPCC
GHG Emissions 1990-2004
Change Total
Europe 15 -0.6% 4.2 bln tCO2eq
Japan +6.5% 1.3 bln tCO2eq
USA +16% 7.1 bln tCO2eq
Australia +25% 0.5 bln tCO2eq
Source: UNFCCC, 2006
Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012:
Germany -18.7%
UK -15.7%
Sweden -7.4%
Italy +12.1%
Ireland +25.4%
Spain +52.3%
GHG Emissions Europe: 1990-2005
Source: EEA (2007)
Emissions – targets & commitments
EU27: 20% 2020 (1990)
Germany: 36% 2020 (1990)
UK: 26% 2020 (1990)
France: 25% 2020 (1990)
Sweden: 30% 2020 (1990)
Japan 6% 2012 (1990)
CO2 Emissions per Person
India 1 (ton per year)
China 5
Sweden 7
Germany 10
USA/Canada 20
World 4 (can absorb 1,5)
Från ord till handling
Några exempel
Lee Scott, Wal M
art
The environment is as Katrina – in slow motion
“Environmental problems are our problems…
There are not two worlds out there - a Wal Mart world and some other world…”
Lee Scott, Wal-Mart
Göran Carstedt 2007
What if we used our size and resources…
“…To make this country and earth an even better place for all of us – customers, coworkers, our children, generations unborn.
What would that mean? Could we do it?”
Lee Scott, Wal-Mart
Göran Carstedt 2007
Our environmental goals at Wal-Mart are from now simple
and straightforward
• To be supplied 100 % by renewable energy
• To create zero waste
• To sell products that sustain our resources and environment
Göran Carstedt 2007
We will not be measured by our aspirations…
“…We will be measured by our actions.”
Lee Scott, Wal-Mart
Göran Carstedt 2007
IKEA goes renewable!
• Reduce energy consumption in 350 buildings by 25% against 2005 level
• Remaining 75% energy = 100% renewable
1st Deadline• 2009: 60% of buildings to use renewables and
be 15% more energy efficient• 2009: all home delivery trucks to use clean fuels
Göran Carstedt 2007
Levels of Commitment
• Defensive- It is not our fault
• Compliant- We’ll do only what we have to
• Managerial- It’s the business
• Strategic- It gives us a competitive edge
• Civil- We need to make sure that everybody does it
Göran Carstedt 2007
Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI)
”practical and measurable steps to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions”
Concentrated Solar Power
40 member cities and 13 affiliates
Göran Carstedt 2007
Clinton Climate Initiative- C40
• Retrofitting buildings
• Waste to Energy
• Transportation
• Seaports/Airports
• CO2 Footprint
Idrottsanläggningar 25-35%
• Ishallar, badhus och idrottshallar förbrukar 1 Twh per år– Lika mycket som Umeå ca. 112 000 invånare
• Investeringar på SEK 50 miljoner– Omedelbart minska 15% energianvändning
= SEK 100 mln per år i 10 år– Driftider för ventilation & belysning, anpassning av
luftflöden, kylmaskiner
(Energimyndigheten)
Angelica Castro Rodriguez, Transmilenio Company, Bogota, C40 Transport Workshop, London Dec 2007
Göran Carstedt 2007
The science is there
It is time to stop debating it and start dealing with it
M Bloomberg, Mayor New York, 2006
Göran Carstedt 2007
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
New York City’s Greenhouse Gas EmissionsCitywide emissions
+27%
-30%
30 % reductions target for 2030
2005 Level
Business as Usual forecast
for 2030
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
eC
O2 T
ON
S P
ER
YE
AR
Source: PLANYC – A GREENER, GREATER NEW YORK Göran Carstedt 2007
Innovation för ett Hållbart Samhälle
• Nya produkter• Nya processer• Nya affärsmodeller• Nya samarbeten• Nytt sätt att tänka
GC 2005
Green Jobs: Towards Decent work in a Sustainable, Low-
Carbon World
- UNEP, Sept 2008
The Appollo Alliance (NGOs, companies, United Auto Workers)
• Five million new American jobs would be created by investing a total of $500 billion over the next ten years in cleantech and renewables.
• Cut emissions by 30% by 2025 by which date a quarter of the country’s power needs would be met by renewables.
Dec, 08
“My presidency will mark a new chapter in American leadership on
climate change.Vigorously re-engage in
international climate negotiations, and enact a US-wide GHG cap and trade system with annual emissions
reduction targets.”- Barack Obama
Nike, Starbucks, Sun Microsystem, Timberland, and Levi Strauss
launched Business for Innovative Climate and Energy Policy to lobby for “swift and aggressive” climate
change legislation.
Nov, 08
UK- Climate Change Act (Dec 2008)
• First government to legally commit to reduce GHG by 80% by 2050 (Endorsed by the opposition)
• Three five-year carbon budgets with statutory targets and audits (sep. committee)
• Targets- interim/final, sector/technology, EU/UK, emission/offset
• Secretary of state for Energy and Climate Change (Ed Milliband)
• Estimated cost of 1-2% of GDP by 2050
Förändringskraft
Göran Carstedt 2007
”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they
aren’t stupid and they are not corrupt.
They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized
for yesterday’s.”
- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008
What if we don’t have an environmental problem, school,
health care, or a business problem…
…but an institutional problem?
GC 2001
What if…
our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we
are now meeting?
GC 2001
What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living
communities?
GC 2001
What if…
change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about
reconceiving?
GC 2001
GC 1997
What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind
being changed?
What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ?
GC 2001
Optimistor
Pessimist?
The Industrial Revolution- transformed our society
• no master plan
• no starting/end point
• not led by anyone
• not an initiative of any political, governmental or religious body
GC 2000
Industrial Revolutionen• The product of millions of small beginnings
• A process of making things better • Outpouring of human creativity
Changing Perceptions- among the many people
GC 2000
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