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P H D C A N D I D A T E
OANA IACOB
Natural flood management as a climate change adaptation option
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013 Dundee
Outline
Introduction to ecosystem services
Climate change threat
What is natural flood management?
Tarland study catchment
Hydrological modelling
Land use scenarios
Climate change scenarios
Hydrological modelling tool
Conclusions
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Introduction to ecosystem services
Humans have always depended on nature for environmental assets like clean water, nutrient cycling and soil formation.
These have been called by different names through human history, but are presently gaining global attention as ‘ecosystem services’.
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Ecosystem services
Humans have changed ecosystems to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel.
This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth.
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
UK NEA (2011): Relative importance of, and trends in theimpact of direct drivers on UK ecosystem services
Sea levels are rising
Glaciers are retreating
Rainfall patterns are changing
Increased frequency of extreme events
Climate change~ 1 in 22 of all residential properties & 1 in 13 of all non-residential properties at risk of flooding
The average annual damages ~ £720 million to £850 million
Engineered schemes or natural flood management?
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
What is Natural Flood Management?
NFM involves the restoration or utilisation of ‘natural’ land cover and channel-floodplain features within catchments through
storing water
increasing soil infiltration
slowing water
reducing water flow connectivity
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Location within the catchment for NFM techniques
WWF Scotland, 2011
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
fisheries
carbon sequestration
oxygen production
biodiversity
recreation
water quality
flood protection
water supply
climate regulation
Representation of expected Engineered (Eng) and NFM strategies behaviour in no climate change conditions and with climate change (Iacob et al., 2013)
c)
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Dee catchment, Tarland subbasin
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
• Centrally situated tributary of the River Dee in north east of Scotland• Approximately 77 km2
• The upper and lower Tarland includes the village of Tarland (600 people) and Aboyne ( 2200 people)
Tarland subbasin
Issues identified:
1. Flooding
2. Low flows
3. Loss of habitats
4. Poor water quality
5. Loss of biodiversity
Soil map Tarland Land use map Tarland
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
DEM and river network Tarland
Modelling land use and climate scenarios
Land use scenarios
Climate change
scenarios
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Land use scenarios are being developed to explore spatial issues and scale issues but also assessing the impacts of different policy driven land use scenarios and identify their impacts on NFM options performance
WaSiM-ETH
Hydrological response
Land use scenarios
Brown et. all, 2012
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Climate change scenarios
Climate Change Projections are available for Scotland at a 25 km grid size and 12 km grid size
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
WaSiM-ETH model
Fully distributed, physically based model for estimating climate change impacts
The model has a good flexibility in separating surface runoff from interflow allowing a good reproduction of flood events.
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
Schulla , 2012
Conclusions
Climate change poses new challenges that need new approaches for flood risk management
Natural flood management has the potential to deliver ‘low regret’ solutions
Time lags must be considered in
flood vulnerable communities
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
QUESTIONS
Thank you!
11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013
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