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NSF/EPRI WorkshopNSF/EPRI Workshopon on Economics, Economics,
Electric Power and Electric Power and Adaptive SystemsAdaptive Systems
Arlington, VirginiaMarch 28-29, 2002
Massoud Amin, D.Sc.Area Manager, Infrastructure Security
Lead, Mathematics & Information Sciences
Context: Today’s power system• Infrastructure expansion has not kept
up with demand:
– Last 25-year annual growth of 2.1% nationally, would result in a 50% increase by 2020;
– Today’s projected 3% annually, a 50% increase by 2014; in urban areas in less than 10 yrs…
• Generation and transmission capacity margins are shrinking
• Customer interface technology (meter) has changed little in a century
• Many distribution systems have not been updated with current technology• Proliferation of distributed resources-- Little DR is connected to the grid
NSF/EPRI Workshop on Economics, Electric Power and Adaptive Systems
EconomicsEfficiencyIncentives
Private Good
Electric PowerReliability
Public Good
Rules being modified: evolving development of rules and designs
No “Standard/Permanent” Market Design
Adaptive Systemsself-healing
Context: R&D Expenditures*
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
Eng &
Mgt
Serv.
Compu
ters
Drugs
& M
eds
Comm Eq
t
Office M
ach.
Instru
ments
Electro
nics
Health
Care
Measu
remen
t
Amusem
ent
Tele
Com
ing
Petrole
um
Non-F
Metals
Leath
er
Depos
its
Air Tran
s
Ferro
us M
etHote
lsFo
od
Agricu
lture
Motor F
reigh
tMini
ng
Water T
rans
Food
Store
s
Restau
rants
Insura
nce
Elect
Gas &
Sanit
Bldg M
ateria
ls RR
Top 10 Industries Bottom 20 Industries
Electric, Gas and Sanitation Services
*R&D expenditures as % of net sales
Context: Generation Capacity Margin in North America
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
Cap
acity
mar
gin
Source: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001
Context: U.S. Actual and Planned Capacity Additions 1998 – 2007
8 ,836
5 5 0
New England
New Capacityin MW
10,001 and Above5,001 to 10,0001,001 to 5,0000 to 1,0000 to 1,000Total = 305,304
10,103 4 ,197
12 ,886
2 0 , 0 3 4
1 ,017
18 ,494
11 ,938
7 7 0
2 5 , 9 2 1
9 ,056
4 ,370
8 ,089
3 ,410
7 ,465 1 ,509
3 ,931
1 0 , 3 6 2
660
5 ,404
2 4 5
1 ,572
4 ,847
14 ,677
1 2 , 0 3 7
4 ,882
1 ,330
14 ,124
4 ,762 3 ,549
37 ,827
7 ,886
2 ,824
5 ,934
4 ,947
14,780
80
Context: Transmission Additions in The U.S.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1988-98 1999-09
ElectricityDemand
TransmissionCapacityExpansion
Transmission Capacity vs. Demand
220
240
260
280
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Mile
s/G
W D
eman
d
Peak Demand
Capacity
Peak
Context: Generation Additions in Western U.S.
Source: Western Governors’ Association
Western Region: Existing and Planned Transmission
• Existing as of 1/1/00
• Planned: 0.23% per year, even though load growth is projected to be over 1.8% per year
Western State Crises: “Interim” conclusions
• Ultimately, the present crisis reflects an accumulation of problems
• The immediate causes of failure result from deregulation that ignored economic fundamentals
• Significant investment in R&D, transmission, generation, and conservation resources are needed
• The “Law of Unintended Consequences” should be considered in crafting any solution
Ref: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001
Western States Power Crises Longer-term Objectives:Transforming the electricity infrastructure
• Greater fuel diversity-- regional and national priorities
• Risk-assessment of long-term U.S. reliance-- analysis of the value of risk management through fuel diversity
• Cost of outages
• Introduce time-varying prices and competitive market dynamics for all customers
• Create a planning process and in-silico testing of power market designs
• Model market efficiencies, environmental constraints and renewables
Source: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001
Longer-term Objectives (Cont.):Transforming the electricity infrastructure
• Transmission network expansion and RTOs– E.g., would an RTO, compliment a competitive wholesale
power market and result in a sustainable and robust hybrid system?
• Comprehensive architecture for power supply and delivery infrastructure that anticipates the rapidly escalating demands of our digital society
• Incentives for technology innovation and accountability for R&D
• Significant investment in Education, R&D, transmission, generation, and conservation resources are needed
• The “Law of Unintended Consequences” should be considered in crafting any solution
NSF/DOE/EPRI Workshop on “Future Research Directions for Complex Interactive Electric Networks”, Washington D.C., Nov. 2000.
• Several pertinent research directions were identified in the four main technical thrust areas:
• Power System Economics
• Real-time Wide Area Sensing, Communications, and Control of Large Scale Networks
• Distributed Generation, Fuel Cells, and New Technology
• Prescriptive and Predictive Model Development
• More details on each of the four areas are available at: http://ecpe.ee.iastate.edu/powerworkshop/.
Technology Challenge for Powering a Secure Digital Society
Cost in $/kW-hrElectricity Reliability
(in “9”s)
1900 1950 2000
Year
109876543210
(3 ms/yr)
(30 ms/yr)
(0.3 sec/yr)
(3 sec/yr)
(30 sec/yr)
(5 min/yr)
(1 hr/yr)
(9 hr/yr)
(3-4 day/yr)
(1 mo/yr) Lights
Computers
Motors
“Digital Society”“Digital Society”(ISPs)(ISPs)
Stand-aloneSteam Generation
Interconnected Central Station Generation
Grid plus Diesel, UPS, etc.
Ultimate Power System?
? How do we make the leap to the next generation?
Power interruptions & inadequate power quality cause economic losses to our nation conservatively estimated to be over $119 Billion/year.
20102010
20252025
20152015
Improve Power Delivery Reliability
Customer-ManagedService Networks
Accelerate EconomicGrowth and Productivity
Resolve Energy/ Carbon Conflict
Manage Global Sustainability
11
22
33
44
55
20052005
20032003
Larger Picture:Larger Picture:Electricity Technology RoadmapElectricity Technology Roadmap
Distributed power generation
Wide-area power flow controls
Advanced power electronics (FACTS)
Superconducting transmission (AC and DC)
Advanced polymer insulation
Energy storage
Power DeliveryPower Delivery
Limit-Breaking Technologies
Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap
Roadmap Tree for Power Delivery Technologies
Legend: Destination Milestone1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Superconducting Cables
FACTS
Wide Bandgap
Semiconductors Hierarchical Control
WAMS
Advanced Underground Construction
HTS Devices
On-Line Analysis
1 2
5 6
8
16 17
19
2021
Market Management Tools
Physical Grid Control
7
High Performance Polymeric Cables9 10
11 12 13 14
15
Massive Bulk Power Trading
18
22
Interstate UndergroundTransmission
GlobalMarket
3 4
Limit-Breaking Technologies
Productivity andProductivity and ElectrotechnologiesElectrotechnologies
Nanotechnologies
Advanced sensors and controls
Advanced materials
Information technology
Biotechnology
Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap
Energy/Carbon and Global Energy/Carbon and Global SustainabilitySustainability
Clean coal technologies
Carbon sequestration
Advanced nuclear power
Distributed renewable power systems
Electricity/hydrogen
Limit-Breaking Technologies
Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap
Infrastructure Security: Emerging Issues
• Aftermath of the 9/11 tragedies• Impact: Our security, quality of life, national and int’l economy • Response: IS Team-- Charter : “Identify, evaluate and develop
the technologies and actions needed to prevent, deter and/or minimize any disruption to the nation’s electricity service”
• System Wide Vulnerability and Defense• Grid Security• Cyber and Communication Threats• Distribution Systems and Disaster Mitigation and Recovery• Threats to the Generation System• Threats to Energy Markets
• Reports: Electricity Infrastructure Security Assessment– Two volumes-- Vol 1: out to 18 months; Vol 2: 18 months to 5 years
Contacts: Dr. Massoud Amin & Dr. Karl Stahlkopf
Infrastructure Security: The Threat
• Electric power systems constitute the fundamental infrastructure of modern society and therefore an inviting target for three kinds of terrorist attacks:
• Attacks upon the system– Power system itself is primary
target with ripple effect throughout society
• Attacks by the system– Population is the actual target,
using parts of the power system as a weapon
• Attack through the system– Utility networks provide the
conduit for attacks on broad range of targets
EPRI’s Electricity Infrastructure Security Assessment• Purpose
– To provide a preliminary assessment by EPRI of potential terrorist threats to the electricity system, along with some suggested countermeasures
• Emphasis– How advanced technologies can be used to protect
critical infrastructures– Physical security issues are left to individual utilities
• Next Step: Launch a 24-month program to address near-term industry security issues– Infrastructure Security Initiative (ISI):– Stakeholders forum and ISI launch scheduled for April 23-
24, 2002 in Phoenix, Arizona.
Coordination Among EPRI’s Programs to Resolve Electricity Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
System vulnerabilities
Infrastructure Security Initiative (ISI)•Short-term response to terrorist threat:oStrategic Spare Parts InventoryoVulnerability assessment studiesoRed team mock attacks
•Goal: Identify grid vulnerabilities and counter-measures to new threats
CEIDS – Self-Healing Grid Program•Long-term technology development effort to optimize system performance and robustness• Focus on recovery and restoration functions, including re-connection of islands in the grid• Goal: Create a new self-healing grid that anticipates potential problems and reduces recovery time
Reliability Initiative
PRA technology
Target 86 – Enterprise Information Security
Power Infrastructure Protection scoping
study results
Industry experience
Other EPRI Base Programs
Algorithms and methodologies
Observations
•• Tactical response is adequate, but strategic Tactical response is adequate, but strategic response is lackingresponse is lacking
•• There is no centralized industry security There is no centralized industry security coordination and assurance capabilitycoordination and assurance capability
•• A supportive public policy umbrella is A supportive public policy umbrella is neededneeded
•• The public doesnThe public doesn’’t appreciate the latent t appreciate the latent threat to the power systemthreat to the power system
Discussion Questions
•• What level of threat is the industry What level of threat is the industry responsible for, and what does government responsible for, and what does government need to address?need to address?
•• Will marketWill market--based priorities support a based priorities support a strategically secure power system?strategically secure power system?
•• What system architecture is most What system architecture is most conducive to maintaining security?conducive to maintaining security?
A vision for the future: Integrated Network Control (INC)
• Increase the control, capacity, and reliability of power delivery systems
• Develop end-use technologies with greater tolerance for disturbances
• Provide consumers with access to new electricity-related services
• Enable consumers to manage and use energy more efficiently
Accelerate development of technologies needed by power system offuture. Emphasis on self-healing grid technologies, including wide-area
monitoring and control.
Power system with fully Integrated Network Control (INC)
• Data gathered from all parts of the system and analyzed in real time
• Resources dispatched on a regional basis to keep up with load changes
• Power flow controlled instantaneously using power electronic devices
• Consumers fully integrated into electricity markets by electronic meters with two-way communications
Enable more flexible system operations to meet changing customerneeds; coordinate all major power system functions on a regional basis
Creating the Infrastructure for the Digital Society
End-Use
Devices
PowerQuality
Interface
DistributedResourcesTransmission Distribution
AssureGrid
Adequacy
DevelopAdvancedDistributedResources
DevelopCodes
andStandards
Develop EnhancedInterfaceDevices
Make End-Use Devices
Compatible and Less Sensitive
Power Quality Events
ElectromagneticCompatibility
Problems
IssuesSolutions
Power System Power Quality Communications Devices andAppliances
GridInterface
• Five NinesReliability
• Nine NinesAvailability
• CompatibleCommunicationsArchitecture
• Seamless Wire-Wireless-WebConnectivity
• ElectromagneticCompatibility
• Inter-ApplianceProtocol
UPS
ActiveFilter
Grid Interface
The Infrastructurefor a Digital Society
The Energy Web:
“The best minds in electricity R&D have a plan: Every node in the power network of the future will be awake, responsive, adaptive, price-smart, eco-sensitive, real-time, flexible, humming - and interconnected with everything else.”
-- Wired Magazine, July 2001http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.07/juice.html
…bigger picture: “not to sell light bulbs, but to create a network of technologies and services that provide
illumination…”
NSF/EPRI Workshop on Economics, Electric Power and Adaptive Systems
EconomicsEfficiencyIncentives
Private Good
Electric PowerReliability
Public Good
Rules being modified: evolving development of rules and designs
No “Standard/Permanent” Market Design
Adaptive Systemsself-healing
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