NSF/EPRI WorkshopNSF/EPRI Workshopon on Economics, Economics,

Electric Power and Electric Power and Adaptive SystemsAdaptive Systems

Arlington, VirginiaMarch 28-29, 2002

Massoud Amin, D.Sc.Area Manager, Infrastructure Security

Lead, Mathematics & Information Sciences

Context: Today’s power system• Infrastructure expansion has not kept

up with demand:

– Last 25-year annual growth of 2.1% nationally, would result in a 50% increase by 2020;

– Today’s projected 3% annually, a 50% increase by 2014; in urban areas in less than 10 yrs…

• Generation and transmission capacity margins are shrinking

• Customer interface technology (meter) has changed little in a century

• Many distribution systems have not been updated with current technology• Proliferation of distributed resources-- Little DR is connected to the grid

NSF/EPRI Workshop on Economics, Electric Power and Adaptive Systems

EconomicsEfficiencyIncentives

Private Good

Electric PowerReliability

Public Good

Rules being modified: evolving development of rules and designs

No “Standard/Permanent” Market Design

Adaptive Systemsself-healing

Context: R&D Expenditures*

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

Eng &

Mgt

Serv.

Compu

ters

Drugs

& M

eds

Comm Eq

t

Office M

ach.

Instru

ments

Electro

nics

Health

Care

Measu

remen

t

Amusem

ent

Tele

Com

Print

ing

Petrole

um

Non-F

Metals

Leath

er

Depos

its

Air Tran

s

Ferro

us M

etHote

lsFo

od

Agricu

lture

Motor F

reigh

tMini

ng

Water T

rans

Food

Store

s

Restau

rants

Insura

nce

Elect

Gas &

Sanit

Bldg M

ateria

ls RR

Top 10 Industries Bottom 20 Industries

Electric, Gas and Sanitation Services

*R&D expenditures as % of net sales

Context: Generation Capacity Margin in North America

0.0 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Cap

acity

mar

gin

Source: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001

Context: U.S. Actual and Planned Capacity Additions 1998 – 2007

8 ,836

5 5 0

New England

New Capacityin MW

10,001 and Above5,001 to 10,0001,001 to 5,0000 to 1,0000 to 1,000Total = 305,304

10,103 4 ,197

12 ,886

2 0 , 0 3 4

1 ,017

18 ,494

11 ,938

7 7 0

2 5 , 9 2 1

9 ,056

4 ,370

8 ,089

3 ,410

7 ,465 1 ,509

3 ,931

1 0 , 3 6 2

660

5 ,404

2 4 5

1 ,572

4 ,847

14 ,677

1 2 , 0 3 7

4 ,882

1 ,330

14 ,124

4 ,762 3 ,549

37 ,827

7 ,886

2 ,824

5 ,934

4 ,947

14,780

80

Context: Transmission Additions in The U.S.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1988-98 1999-09

ElectricityDemand

TransmissionCapacityExpansion

Transmission Capacity vs. Demand

220

240

260

280

300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Mile

s/G

W D

eman

d

Peak Demand

Capacity

Peak

Context: Generation Additions in Western U.S.

Source: Western Governors’ Association

Western Region: Existing and Planned Transmission

• Existing as of 1/1/00

• Planned: 0.23% per year, even though load growth is projected to be over 1.8% per year

Western State Crises: “Interim” conclusions

• Ultimately, the present crisis reflects an accumulation of problems

• The immediate causes of failure result from deregulation that ignored economic fundamentals

• Significant investment in R&D, transmission, generation, and conservation resources are needed

• The “Law of Unintended Consequences” should be considered in crafting any solution

Ref: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001

Western States Power Crises Longer-term Objectives:Transforming the electricity infrastructure

• Greater fuel diversity-- regional and national priorities

• Risk-assessment of long-term U.S. reliance-- analysis of the value of risk management through fuel diversity

• Cost of outages

• Introduce time-varying prices and competitive market dynamics for all customers

• Create a planning process and in-silico testing of power market designs

• Model market efficiencies, environmental constraints and renewables

Source: Western States Power Crises White Paper, EPRI, Summer 2001

Longer-term Objectives (Cont.):Transforming the electricity infrastructure

• Transmission network expansion and RTOs– E.g., would an RTO, compliment a competitive wholesale

power market and result in a sustainable and robust hybrid system?

• Comprehensive architecture for power supply and delivery infrastructure that anticipates the rapidly escalating demands of our digital society

• Incentives for technology innovation and accountability for R&D

• Significant investment in Education, R&D, transmission, generation, and conservation resources are needed

• The “Law of Unintended Consequences” should be considered in crafting any solution

NSF/DOE/EPRI Workshop on “Future Research Directions for Complex Interactive Electric Networks”, Washington D.C., Nov. 2000.

• Several pertinent research directions were identified in the four main technical thrust areas:

• Power System Economics

• Real-time Wide Area Sensing, Communications, and Control of Large Scale Networks

• Distributed Generation, Fuel Cells, and New Technology

• Prescriptive and Predictive Model Development

• More details on each of the four areas are available at: http://ecpe.ee.iastate.edu/powerworkshop/.

Technology Challenge for Powering a Secure Digital Society

Cost in $/kW-hrElectricity Reliability

(in “9”s)

1900 1950 2000

Year

109876543210

(3 ms/yr)

(30 ms/yr)

(0.3 sec/yr)

(3 sec/yr)

(30 sec/yr)

(5 min/yr)

(1 hr/yr)

(9 hr/yr)

(3-4 day/yr)

(1 mo/yr) Lights

Computers

Motors

“Digital Society”“Digital Society”(ISPs)(ISPs)

Stand-aloneSteam Generation

Interconnected Central Station Generation

Grid plus Diesel, UPS, etc.

Ultimate Power System?

? How do we make the leap to the next generation?

Power interruptions & inadequate power quality cause economic losses to our nation conservatively estimated to be over $119 Billion/year.

20102010

20252025

20152015

Improve Power Delivery Reliability

Customer-ManagedService Networks

Accelerate EconomicGrowth and Productivity

Resolve Energy/ Carbon Conflict

Manage Global Sustainability

11

22

33

44

55

20052005

20032003

Larger Picture:Larger Picture:Electricity Technology RoadmapElectricity Technology Roadmap

Distributed power generation

Wide-area power flow controls

Advanced power electronics (FACTS)

Superconducting transmission (AC and DC)

Advanced polymer insulation

Energy storage

Power DeliveryPower Delivery

Limit-Breaking Technologies

Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap

Roadmap Tree for Power Delivery Technologies

Legend: Destination Milestone1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Superconducting Cables

FACTS

Wide Bandgap

Semiconductors Hierarchical Control

WAMS

Advanced Underground Construction

HTS Devices

On-Line Analysis

1 2

5 6

8

16 17

19

2021

Market Management Tools

Physical Grid Control

7

High Performance Polymeric Cables9 10

11 12 13 14

15

Massive Bulk Power Trading

18

22

Interstate UndergroundTransmission

GlobalMarket

3 4

Limit-Breaking Technologies

Productivity andProductivity and ElectrotechnologiesElectrotechnologies

Nanotechnologies

Advanced sensors and controls

Advanced materials

Information technology

Biotechnology

Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap

Energy/Carbon and Global Energy/Carbon and Global SustainabilitySustainability

Clean coal technologies

Carbon sequestration

Advanced nuclear power

Distributed renewable power systems

Electricity/hydrogen

Limit-Breaking Technologies

Source: Electricity Technology Roadmap

Infrastructure Security: Emerging Issues

• Aftermath of the 9/11 tragedies• Impact: Our security, quality of life, national and int’l economy • Response: IS Team-- Charter : “Identify, evaluate and develop

the technologies and actions needed to prevent, deter and/or minimize any disruption to the nation’s electricity service”

• System Wide Vulnerability and Defense• Grid Security• Cyber and Communication Threats• Distribution Systems and Disaster Mitigation and Recovery• Threats to the Generation System• Threats to Energy Markets

• Reports: Electricity Infrastructure Security Assessment– Two volumes-- Vol 1: out to 18 months; Vol 2: 18 months to 5 years

Contacts: Dr. Massoud Amin & Dr. Karl Stahlkopf

Infrastructure Security: The Threat

• Electric power systems constitute the fundamental infrastructure of modern society and therefore an inviting target for three kinds of terrorist attacks:

• Attacks upon the system– Power system itself is primary

target with ripple effect throughout society

• Attacks by the system– Population is the actual target,

using parts of the power system as a weapon

• Attack through the system– Utility networks provide the

conduit for attacks on broad range of targets

EPRI’s Electricity Infrastructure Security Assessment• Purpose

– To provide a preliminary assessment by EPRI of potential terrorist threats to the electricity system, along with some suggested countermeasures

• Emphasis– How advanced technologies can be used to protect

critical infrastructures– Physical security issues are left to individual utilities

• Next Step: Launch a 24-month program to address near-term industry security issues– Infrastructure Security Initiative (ISI):– Stakeholders forum and ISI launch scheduled for April 23-

24, 2002 in Phoenix, Arizona.

Coordination Among EPRI’s Programs to Resolve Electricity Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

System vulnerabilities

Infrastructure Security Initiative (ISI)•Short-term response to terrorist threat:oStrategic Spare Parts InventoryoVulnerability assessment studiesoRed team mock attacks

•Goal: Identify grid vulnerabilities and counter-measures to new threats

CEIDS – Self-Healing Grid Program•Long-term technology development effort to optimize system performance and robustness• Focus on recovery and restoration functions, including re-connection of islands in the grid• Goal: Create a new self-healing grid that anticipates potential problems and reduces recovery time

Reliability Initiative

PRA technology

Target 86 – Enterprise Information Security

Power Infrastructure Protection scoping

study results

Industry experience

Other EPRI Base Programs

Algorithms and methodologies

Observations

•• Tactical response is adequate, but strategic Tactical response is adequate, but strategic response is lackingresponse is lacking

•• There is no centralized industry security There is no centralized industry security coordination and assurance capabilitycoordination and assurance capability

•• A supportive public policy umbrella is A supportive public policy umbrella is neededneeded

•• The public doesnThe public doesn’’t appreciate the latent t appreciate the latent threat to the power systemthreat to the power system

Discussion Questions

•• What level of threat is the industry What level of threat is the industry responsible for, and what does government responsible for, and what does government need to address?need to address?

•• Will marketWill market--based priorities support a based priorities support a strategically secure power system?strategically secure power system?

•• What system architecture is most What system architecture is most conducive to maintaining security?conducive to maintaining security?

A vision for the future: Integrated Network Control (INC)

• Increase the control, capacity, and reliability of power delivery systems

• Develop end-use technologies with greater tolerance for disturbances

• Provide consumers with access to new electricity-related services

• Enable consumers to manage and use energy more efficiently

Accelerate development of technologies needed by power system offuture. Emphasis on self-healing grid technologies, including wide-area

monitoring and control.

Power system with fully Integrated Network Control (INC)

• Data gathered from all parts of the system and analyzed in real time

• Resources dispatched on a regional basis to keep up with load changes

• Power flow controlled instantaneously using power electronic devices

• Consumers fully integrated into electricity markets by electronic meters with two-way communications

Enable more flexible system operations to meet changing customerneeds; coordinate all major power system functions on a regional basis

Creating the Infrastructure for the Digital Society

End-Use

Devices

PowerQuality

Interface

DistributedResourcesTransmission Distribution

AssureGrid

Adequacy

DevelopAdvancedDistributedResources

DevelopCodes

andStandards

Develop EnhancedInterfaceDevices

Make End-Use Devices

Compatible and Less Sensitive

Power Quality Events

ElectromagneticCompatibility

Problems

IssuesSolutions

Power System Power Quality Communications Devices andAppliances

GridInterface

• Five NinesReliability

• Nine NinesAvailability

• CompatibleCommunicationsArchitecture

• Seamless Wire-Wireless-WebConnectivity

• ElectromagneticCompatibility

• Inter-ApplianceProtocol

UPS

ActiveFilter

Grid Interface

The Infrastructurefor a Digital Society

The Energy Web:

“The best minds in electricity R&D have a plan: Every node in the power network of the future will be awake, responsive, adaptive, price-smart, eco-sensitive, real-time, flexible, humming - and interconnected with everything else.”

-- Wired Magazine, July 2001http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.07/juice.html

…bigger picture: “not to sell light bulbs, but to create a network of technologies and services that provide

illumination…”

NSF/EPRI Workshop on Economics, Electric Power and Adaptive Systems

EconomicsEfficiencyIncentives

Private Good

Electric PowerReliability

Public Good

Rules being modified: evolving development of rules and designs

No “Standard/Permanent” Market Design

Adaptive Systemsself-healing