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North American Modelling Futures

Rick Donnelly

Modelling Tomorrow’s World | 23 November 2016

Mo

del

ing

par

adig

ms

2G

act

ivit

y-b

ased

mo

del

3G activity-based models

Imp

lem

enta

tio

ns

Evolution of practice

Incr

easi

ng

det

ail

(Changing) Oregon analytical requirements

Maj

or

infl

uen

ces

Convergence?

Context first

Forecasting versus replication

Beh

avio

ura

ld

ata

Dat

a-d

rive

n m

od

el

New forecasting approach

Next?

• Invest in wetware

• Transparent big data

• Drop reductionist mindset

• Model less, forecast more

• Multi-scale and hybrid solutions

• Embrace uncertainty

Worth reading

• C04 Traveler response to pricing and congestion

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/shrp2/SHRP2prepubC04.pdf

• Activity-based modelling primer

http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/170963.aspx

• Zürich meets New York

http://bit.ly/2f1zvKQ

• Josie Kressner’s ITM16 presentation

https://transportfoundry.com/blog/

Rick Donnelly (donnellyr@pbworld.com)