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North American Modelling Futures
Rick Donnelly
Modelling Tomorrow’s World | 23 November 2016
Mo
del
ing
par
adig
ms
2G
act
ivit
y-b
ased
mo
del
3G activity-based models
Imp
lem
enta
tio
ns
Evolution of practice
Incr
easi
ng
det
ail
(Changing) Oregon analytical requirements
Maj
or
infl
uen
ces
Convergence?
Context first
Forecasting versus replication
Beh
avio
ura
ld
ata
Dat
a-d
rive
n m
od
el
New forecasting approach
Next?
• Invest in wetware
• Transparent big data
• Drop reductionist mindset
• Model less, forecast more
• Multi-scale and hybrid solutions
• Embrace uncertainty
Worth reading
• C04 Traveler response to pricing and congestion
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/shrp2/SHRP2prepubC04.pdf
• Activity-based modelling primer
http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/170963.aspx
• Zürich meets New York
http://bit.ly/2f1zvKQ
• Josie Kressner’s ITM16 presentation
https://transportfoundry.com/blog/
Rick Donnelly ([email protected])