NOAA Climate Goal/Climate Program Arctic Workshop Meeting February 2-3, 2005 John Jensen National...

NOAA Climate Goal/Climate Program

Arctic Workshop Meeting February 2-3, 2005

John JensenNational Climatic Data Center

Alaskan Climate Reference Network (AK CRN)

Climate Goal Contribution AK CRN Target Performance Measures f(29 stations)

• Surface air temperature: 99% of inter-annual explained variability• Precipitation: 98% of inter-annual explained variability

Proposed AK CRN funding (FY 07-11) supports 29 CRN stations.

Two CRN stations operating in Alaska (Fairbanks and Pt. Barrow).

Possibly four stations installed in FY 05-06 (U.S. GCOS funding) • St. Paul Island Denali Nat’l Park,, Sitka area, and Katovik• Toolik Lake and Tok (if funding permits)

AK CRN Stations (Tentative Proposed Locations)

Denali Nat’l Park

SitKa

Katovik

Toolik Lake

Tok

St. Paul Island

Improve Arctic Climate Observations Climate Reference Network at Key Alaskan sites

FairbanksFairbanksNOAA/NESDIS (FCDAS)NOAA/NESDIS (FCDAS)

Adjusted for biases

As observed

Precipitation - Fairbanks, AK

Aspirated Radiation ShieldsTemperature sensors operating

Polar Bear curiosity/play thing @ Pt. Barrow, AK

T1

T2 T3

Alaskan Coastal Climatologies

Alaskan Coastal Climatologies

Overview

Why Climatologies?• Changes in Sea Level and Extent of Seasonal Sea Ice • Coastal Erosion and Flooding• Impacts on environment, economic activities, and human activities• Plan for and proactively mitigate (when possible) impact on socio-economic activities.

Initial Issue and Focus: Scientific Integration • Short term forecasts to long term trends and potential impacts• Requires use of multiple models and analyses• Requires a variety of spatial and temporal observations• Requires detailed information about the natural and human environments

Alaskan Coastal Climatologies

Climate Goal Contribution

Objective: Provide historical information and future scenarios regarding wave and storm surge run-up along Alaskan coastlines.

Initial Focus: Develop climatologies addressing near shore retreat of sea ice, permafrost loss, and sea level rise and related impacts on coastal erosion due to increased coastal wave and storm surge action.

Alaskan Coastal Climatologies

Proposed Plan of Action

FY 05-06• NWS sponsored AK Regional Users Needs Assessment & Technical Workshop

Based on workshop, assess the state of the science in coastal wind/wave climatology data, integration, and hind cast modeling capabilities.

• Assemble supporting climatological data bases for AK coastline, coastal sea level, coastal sea ice, near-shore winds and sea waves.

• Develop QC procedures for AK coastal climatological data.

• Integrate data bases (as required) and perform trend analyses.

• Evaluate potential near-shore hind-cast wind and wave models for Alaskan shoreline U. S. Army Corps of Engineers in Alaska N. C. State University recent modeling of Alaskan coasts (briefed at ’05 AMS) U. S. Navy and NOAA wave models

• Select the wind and wave model study region and complete the climatology information resource development methodology.

Alaskan Coastal Climatologies

Proposed Plan of Action (continued)

FY 07-08• Test results of the hind cast modeling for potential use in near shore wind/wave modeling and forecasting.• Design/conduct demonstration project for selected study region (s).• Deliver prototype data and user tailored applications/information.• Identify other decision support products and services.• Complete development and produce AK coastal wind/wave climatologies & maps to include sea level, near shore sea ice, and permafrost conditions.• Provide user web-based access to AK climatologies and associated maps.

FY 09 and Beyond • Expand routine operational processes for use in future AK Coastal Climatologies.• Monitor current conditions and improve predictions and projections for use by policy makers and developing mitigation plans.