Met Briefing, 20140225

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Met Briefing, 20140225•Sounding moderately dry to 38kft, some saturated layers at 10kft, so out of “tropical” regime for now. Weather through tomorrow dominated by approaching shear line, major concern will be winds from strong pressure gradient north of us.•Tropical closed circulation near 6N, 153E continues to try to organize. Satellite presentation is a little better organized than 2 days ago. Last 3 progs are consistent in evolution of the system. •Rain chances increase on Thursday and Friday as the tropical system begins to move west at 5-10N. Models put the system south of us at 9N on Thursday night. We are at the edge of tropical air, with increased CAPE.•After Friday, models begin to diverge, with some indicating the system will be near us on Sunday.

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Current conditions – few clouds, NE Gusts to 19 knots.CAPE minimalCPT at 188.5K, expect little to warming trend in CPT through (depends on TC development), with altitude at about 53kft.

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Still fairly dry over us, with moistening from tropical disturbance to the east.

4Convection still marginally organized, but deep, systems south of 10N are to 53kft,North of 10 are to 45kft. Some trend for overall convection to head east..

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TO tomorrow morning. Surface winds will be lower than 1000mb winds, but will be a concern. Trade wind disturbances will come through, so will experience periods of ool ceilings. TO winds: 055 gusts to 20 knots, occasional periods of 1500’ broken clouds, otherwise ceilings above 5kft.

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Landing situation. (10 PM). As shear line approaches, chances of low ceilings increase. Winds look to be down the runway with gusts to > 25 knots. This will be period of greatest concern. Winds during the day will be even higher, decreasing a tad by landing. Some rain showers.

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WED - THU

7-DAY

ENE

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TO forecast sounding. Thin moist layer, expect scattered/few at 1500 conditions

Landing: Thicker moist layer, though RH at 700 probably too high. Have a higher probability of a 1500-2000 foot ceiling.

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TO Thursday. Winds at TO 070 at 25 knots, cloud cover increasing, rain chances increasing to scattered showers.

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Landing conditions: Increased rain chances, winds about the same as TO, increased rain chances and increased chances of low ceilings.

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TO Friday: Winds are increasingly from the east instead of NE, weaker than Thursday. Gusts 15-20 knots from the east. Cloud cover about the same as Thursday, or worse.

12Landing, Friday: East winds, gusting to 20 knots, same cloud cover conditions as TO.