Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center Is There a Need for a Water Resources Monitor? With...

Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center

Is There a Need for a Water Resources Monitor?

With ContributionsFrom:

Harry Lins,USGS

Phil Pasteris,USDA/NRCS

Frank Richards,NOAA

U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor

Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003

Current Assessment

Forecast

Long-Term Supply

Reservoir Conditions

Links

Explanation

Water Emergency

Water Warning

Water Advisory

Insufficient

data for assessment

Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.

Water Resources Monitor - Overview

Concept

Questions

Observational/Data Requirements

Approach

Next Steps

A proposed partnership between the USGS, NOAA, USDA and the NDMCIdea hatched in spring 2003 as a potential answer to the debate of 1 vs. 2 DM maps (short- and long-term drought) and as a better tool for the DM authorsA consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map by basin or hydrological unitThe Water Resources Monitor would be updated monthly (?) providing for a general hydro assessment of water resources in the U.S. to compliment the Drought Monitor

Water Monitor Concept

Is there a need for a hydro-oriented companion to the Drought Monitor?

Who’s the audience?

What’s needed to make it happen?

Questions

Observational/Data Requirements

Primary*surface water*reservoir*groundwater

Others*snow*soil moisture*water supply forecasts*PRISM to address elevation

A Possible Approach

Start w/ streamflow dataSupplement as best as possible w/ other dataBase analysis on HUC’sUse GIS/IMS as key toolsMap depicts where impact occurs?Value added from experts/subjective assessment and interpretation of the objective factorsMaintain web site and open listserver like the DM

Water Resources Monitor

U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor

Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003

Current Assessment

Forecast

Long-Term Supply

Reservoir Conditions

Links

Explanation

Water Emergency

Water Warning

Water Advisory

Insufficient

data for assessment

Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.

Water Resources Monitor

U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor

Reflecting streamflow conditions ending Septermber 26, 2003

Current Assessment

Forecast

Long-Term Supply

Reservoir Conditions

Links

1-Day 7-Day

14-Day 28-Day

Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.

Water Resources Monitor

U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor

Current Assessment

Forecast

Long-Term Supply

Reservoir Conditions

Links

Water Resources Monitor

U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor

Current Assessment

Forecast

Long-Term Supply

Reservoir Conditions

Links

Issues

ResourcesNot another “unfunded mandate”Who does it?Lack of adequate observations (current and historical)Can this product better address the fundamental question of significant rains and how they impact short- vs. long-term recoveryBetter approach to account for elevation

The North AmericaDrought Monitor - Overview

History – Background - Objectives

Participants

Procedure

Input Indicators

User Feedback

The North America Drought MonitorPrimary Participants

U.S.NCDC, US Dept. of Agriculture, Climate Prediction Center and National Drought Mitigation Center

CanadaAgriculture and Agrifood Canada

Meteorological Service of Canada

MexicoNational Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN - Servicio Meteorologico Nacional)

Comision Nacional del Agua

Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort

November 2001Meeting of Troika at NCDC to discuss assessment and monitoring of climate extremes across North AmericaDecision to initiate assessment of extremes with most widespread problem – DROUGHT

• Develop monitoring program similar to U.S. Drought Monitor

Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort

April 2002Combined U.S./North America Drought Monitor Workshop at NCDCOne day devoted to discussions on the new drought monitoring program for N. America

December 2002First experimental North America Drought Monitor Map completed

Development of Monthly NADM Map

NCDC receive, process, ingest daily/monthly station data (Tx, Tn, P, SF) from U.S., Canada, Mexico

NCDC compute continental-scale input indicatorsMonthly station SPI, PCTPCP, Palmer Drought Index

NADM Author prepare first draft mapFrom continental-scale indicators & national productsUse USDM from month’s final week for U.S. depictionDraft map sent to each country’s experts for feedbackUsing ArcGIS

NADM Author prepare final map & textReleased on NCDC website by middle of following month

Data for Continental Indicators

MexicoPrecipitation data set development for Mexico (Art Douglas and Miguel Cortez)

• 132 of the highest quality stations from a database of ~1000 stations

• Begin in 1950 or earlier and continue to provide

near-real-time reporting– Some merging of climatically similar stations

– Quality controlled using nearby stations

– Missing months estimated by using % of normal maps

Temperature data set available soon• 65 high quality Observatory stations• Plus 67 additional stations

Data for Continental Indicators

U.S. – Precipitation & Temperature

Climate Division Database• 344 climate divisions in contiguous US with

data from 1895 through the previous month– Using climate division data as surrogate

stations– Centroid of climate division

15 stations added along US/Mexico border

ASOS data for Alaska (planned)• Climate division data begins in 1931 but is not

available until 3 to 4 months after the end of

the month

Data for Continental Indicators

Canada – Precipitation & TemperatureDatabase of ~800 stations, many (~200-300) with near-real-time reportingMost stations in southern CanadaHomogeneity adjustments to daily data applied by Pasha Groisman before monthly totals calculated

• Rainfall: 1. Adjustment for the instrument and observation practice changes in the 1970s (peak of changes in 1977); 2. Small wind undercatch scale correction (factor 1.02)

• Snowfall: 1. Reduction of snow ruler to snow gauge measurements (everywhere); at 540 stations where the switch from ruler to gauge was made in 1960s this affects the homogeneity of time series. 2. Constant wind undercatch scale correction (factor 10/9).

NADM Input Indicators

Continental-Scale Indices & IndicatorsStandardized Precipitation Index

Palmer Drought Index (available soon)

Percent of Normal Precipitation

SSM/I Wetness

Satellite Vegetation Health Index

OtherStreamflow

Dugout Levels*

*Canada only

Continental-Scale IndicatorsStandardizing Period: 1951-2001 (for PCTPCP, SPI, PDI)

Guidance for drought category boundaries across international borders

Continental-Scale Indicators

SSM/I WetnessSoil wetness in top layers

1988-present period of record

Satellite Vegetation Health Index

Continental-Scale Indicators

Station Network Density in Canada Coarse

Results in Unreliable Contours

ProducingDot Maps for

North America, Contour Maps

for U.S.-Mexico

* Denser Network of Stations Needed for Contours in Canada

North America Drought Monitor

StrengthsContinental-scale depiction of drought

Consistent across international borders

Pool resources, increase communication

Future GoalsMove U.S. from climate divisions to station network

Increase spatial density of stations across North America

NADM Web Site

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html

NADM Web Sitehttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html

USDM Web Sitehttp://drought.unl.edu/dm/

NADM WorkshopJune 25-27, 2003, Asheville, NC, USA

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2003/NADM-workshop/nadm-workshop03avl.html