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Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center
Is There a Need for a Water Resources Monitor?
With ContributionsFrom:
Harry Lins,USGS
Phil Pasteris,USDA/NRCS
Frank Richards,NOAA
U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor
Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003
Current Assessment
Forecast
Long-Term Supply
Reservoir Conditions
Links
Explanation
Water Emergency
Water Warning
Water Advisory
Insufficient
data for assessment
Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
Water Resources Monitor - Overview
Concept
Questions
Observational/Data Requirements
Approach
Next Steps
A proposed partnership between the USGS, NOAA, USDA and the NDMCIdea hatched in spring 2003 as a potential answer to the debate of 1 vs. 2 DM maps (short- and long-term drought) and as a better tool for the DM authorsA consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map by basin or hydrological unitThe Water Resources Monitor would be updated monthly (?) providing for a general hydro assessment of water resources in the U.S. to compliment the Drought Monitor
Water Monitor Concept
Is there a need for a hydro-oriented companion to the Drought Monitor?
Who’s the audience?
What’s needed to make it happen?
Questions
Observational/Data Requirements
Primary*surface water*reservoir*groundwater
Others*snow*soil moisture*water supply forecasts*PRISM to address elevation
A Possible Approach
Start w/ streamflow dataSupplement as best as possible w/ other dataBase analysis on HUC’sUse GIS/IMS as key toolsMap depicts where impact occurs?Value added from experts/subjective assessment and interpretation of the objective factorsMaintain web site and open listserver like the DM
Water Resources Monitor
U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor
Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003
Current Assessment
Forecast
Long-Term Supply
Reservoir Conditions
Links
Explanation
Water Emergency
Water Warning
Water Advisory
Insufficient
data for assessment
Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
Water Resources Monitor
U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor
Reflecting streamflow conditions ending Septermber 26, 2003
Current Assessment
Forecast
Long-Term Supply
Reservoir Conditions
Links
1-Day 7-Day
14-Day 28-Day
Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
Water Resources Monitor
U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor
Current Assessment
Forecast
Long-Term Supply
Reservoir Conditions
Links
Water Resources Monitor
U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor
Current Assessment
Forecast
Long-Term Supply
Reservoir Conditions
Links
Issues
ResourcesNot another “unfunded mandate”Who does it?Lack of adequate observations (current and historical)Can this product better address the fundamental question of significant rains and how they impact short- vs. long-term recoveryBetter approach to account for elevation
The North AmericaDrought Monitor - Overview
History – Background - Objectives
Participants
Procedure
Input Indicators
User Feedback
The North America Drought MonitorPrimary Participants
U.S.NCDC, US Dept. of Agriculture, Climate Prediction Center and National Drought Mitigation Center
CanadaAgriculture and Agrifood Canada
Meteorological Service of Canada
MexicoNational Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN - Servicio Meteorologico Nacional)
Comision Nacional del Agua
Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort
November 2001Meeting of Troika at NCDC to discuss assessment and monitoring of climate extremes across North AmericaDecision to initiate assessment of extremes with most widespread problem – DROUGHT
• Develop monitoring program similar to U.S. Drought Monitor
Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort
April 2002Combined U.S./North America Drought Monitor Workshop at NCDCOne day devoted to discussions on the new drought monitoring program for N. America
December 2002First experimental North America Drought Monitor Map completed
Development of Monthly NADM Map
NCDC receive, process, ingest daily/monthly station data (Tx, Tn, P, SF) from U.S., Canada, Mexico
NCDC compute continental-scale input indicatorsMonthly station SPI, PCTPCP, Palmer Drought Index
NADM Author prepare first draft mapFrom continental-scale indicators & national productsUse USDM from month’s final week for U.S. depictionDraft map sent to each country’s experts for feedbackUsing ArcGIS
NADM Author prepare final map & textReleased on NCDC website by middle of following month
Data for Continental Indicators
MexicoPrecipitation data set development for Mexico (Art Douglas and Miguel Cortez)
• 132 of the highest quality stations from a database of ~1000 stations
• Begin in 1950 or earlier and continue to provide
near-real-time reporting– Some merging of climatically similar stations
– Quality controlled using nearby stations
– Missing months estimated by using % of normal maps
Temperature data set available soon• 65 high quality Observatory stations• Plus 67 additional stations
Data for Continental Indicators
U.S. – Precipitation & Temperature
Climate Division Database• 344 climate divisions in contiguous US with
data from 1895 through the previous month– Using climate division data as surrogate
stations– Centroid of climate division
15 stations added along US/Mexico border
ASOS data for Alaska (planned)• Climate division data begins in 1931 but is not
available until 3 to 4 months after the end of
the month
Data for Continental Indicators
Canada – Precipitation & TemperatureDatabase of ~800 stations, many (~200-300) with near-real-time reportingMost stations in southern CanadaHomogeneity adjustments to daily data applied by Pasha Groisman before monthly totals calculated
• Rainfall: 1. Adjustment for the instrument and observation practice changes in the 1970s (peak of changes in 1977); 2. Small wind undercatch scale correction (factor 1.02)
• Snowfall: 1. Reduction of snow ruler to snow gauge measurements (everywhere); at 540 stations where the switch from ruler to gauge was made in 1960s this affects the homogeneity of time series. 2. Constant wind undercatch scale correction (factor 10/9).
NADM Input Indicators
Continental-Scale Indices & IndicatorsStandardized Precipitation Index
Palmer Drought Index (available soon)
Percent of Normal Precipitation
SSM/I Wetness
Satellite Vegetation Health Index
OtherStreamflow
Dugout Levels*
*Canada only
Continental-Scale IndicatorsStandardizing Period: 1951-2001 (for PCTPCP, SPI, PDI)
Guidance for drought category boundaries across international borders
Continental-Scale Indicators
SSM/I WetnessSoil wetness in top layers
1988-present period of record
Satellite Vegetation Health Index
Continental-Scale Indicators
Station Network Density in Canada Coarse
Results in Unreliable Contours
ProducingDot Maps for
North America, Contour Maps
for U.S.-Mexico
* Denser Network of Stations Needed for Contours in Canada
North America Drought Monitor
StrengthsContinental-scale depiction of drought
Consistent across international borders
Pool resources, increase communication
Future GoalsMove U.S. from climate divisions to station network
Increase spatial density of stations across North America
NADM Web Site
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html
NADM Web Sitehttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html
USDM Web Sitehttp://drought.unl.edu/dm/
NADM WorkshopJune 25-27, 2003, Asheville, NC, USA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2003/NADM-workshop/nadm-workshop03avl.html