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Making Nature Useless���Relative Dematerialization & Absolute Peaks���
������
Iddo Wernick���Program for the Human Environment���
���Resources For the Future���
Washington DC���November 5, 2014���
���Report on work done with Jesse Ausubel, Alan Curry���
and Paul Waggoner���phe.rockefeller.edu
Can improving efficiency and changing consumer preferences overwhelm���
rising population and affluence��� to reduce the tons of material ���
that Americans use? The World?
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Resource Concerns 1. National Security 2. Commerce 3. Environmental Quality
1952
1972 1999 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Resource Efficiency US Potato yield, production, & area harvested:
1950-2010
Data source: USDA 2013
0
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1970
= 1
Area harvested
Production
Yield
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Sources: FAO (2014); World Bank (2014)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Inde
x 1961 = 1
Industrial Roundwood Paper and Paperboard Wood Fuel Wood-‐Based Panels Sawnwood
Global Forest Products Intensity of Use ���(Cubic Meters/$ GDP)
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Measures of Commodity Use
• Relative o Intensity of Use (IOU) measured as kg/$GDP o Falling IOU ==> “Dematerialization“
• Absolute o Absolute use (ABS) measured as kg, kWh, Ha,
liters…
o Falling ABS ==> “Peak”
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
100
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1940
Plastics
Aluminum
Potash
Phosphate
Paper
Timber
Steel
Lead
Copper
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-1970
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0.1
1
10
100
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1940
Plastics
Aluminum
Potash
Phosphate
Paper
Timber
Steel
Lead
Copper
1970
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0.1
1
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
IOU
/IOU
1970
Plastics
Paper
Potash
Phosphate
Timber
Lead
Aluminum
Copper
Steel
1970
IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
1970
ABS of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
1
2
3
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Plastics
Paper
Timber
Phosphate
Potash
Lead
Aluminum
Steel
Copper
Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
1990
Study on the use of 100 commodities in USA 1900 - 2010.
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Group 1 ABS IOU
Group 2 ABS IOU
Group 3 ABS IOU
Behavior from 1970-2010 gives us 3 distinct groups
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Data source: USGS 2013, Johnston and Williamson 2013
Group 1 (36/100)
∆ IOU < 0 &
∆ ABS < 0
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Asbestos Iodine
Thorium Mercury
Cadmium Sodium Sulfate
Pig Iron Arsenic
Iron Ore Lithium
Clays Thallium
Fluorspar Cotton
Vermiculite Bauxite & Alumina
Iron & Steel Slag Pumice & Pumicite
Magnesium Compounds Manganese
Tin Strontium
Silicon Chromium
Iron & Steel Scrap Rare Earths
Bismuth Talc & Pyrophyllite
Zinc Antimony Soda Ash
Mica Steel
Selenium Copper
Sand & Grave (Const.)
Annual Change 1970-2010
ABS IOU
0
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Chromium
Fluorspar
Pig Iron
Iron Ore
Sodium Sulfate
Cadmium
Thorium
Asbestos
ABS for 8 Group 1 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. Wernick & Ausubel 2014
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Boron* Water
Cropland Aluminum*
Lime Lead*
Cement Sand & Gravel (Industrial)
Beef Natural Gas
Magnesium Metal Fish
Timber Titanium Dioxide
Sulfur Zirconium Minerals
Phosphate Rock Potatoes
Salt Diatomite
Potash Vanadium* Petroleum
Graphite (Natural) Perlite
Beryllium* Feldspar Nickel*
Pork Cobalt*
Nitrogen (Ammonia) NRO
Stone (Crushed) Abrasives (Natural)
Gypsum Paper & Board
Wheat Uranium Bromine
Silver Tungsten*
Barite Coal Gold
Platinum-Group Metals* Germanium*
NRO (Oil & Gas) Molybdenum*
Titanium Metal* Hafnium* Electricity Tantalum*
Corn
Annual Change 1970-2010
ABS
IOU
Group 2 (53/100)
∆ IOU < 0 & ∆ ABS > 0
0
1
2
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS/AB
S 1970
Electricity
Non-Renewable Organics
Nickel
Nitrogen
Cement
Petroleum
Beef
Water
ABS for 8 Group 2 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Group 2 Agricultural Inputs & Outputs
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1900 1935 1970 2005
ABS
/ABS
1970
Corn
Soybeans
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Cropland
Water
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
mill
ion
bush
els
Alcohol
Exports
Feed
Food*
Source: USDA Economic Research Service 2013
US uses of corn
Fed to Animals
Fed to Autos
Fed to Americans
* Includes production of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), glucose and dextrose, starch, alcohol for beverages and manufacturing, seed, cereals and other products
Fed abroad
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
1940 1960 1980 2000
Water ABS Water IOU
US water withdrawals: Flat since ~1975
Data source: USGS 2009, Johnston and Williamson, 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0.1
1
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
ABS
/ABS
1970
Diamond (Industrial)
Gallium*
Rhenium*
Indium*
Garnet (Industrial)
Niobium*
Chicken
Helium
ABS for 8 Group 3 Commodities: US
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]
Commodities Asia
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
ROK Japan India China
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Aluminum use in 4 Asian nations
Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey
Petroleum use in 4 Asian nations
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
ROK Japan India China
Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey Wernick & Ausubel 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Kilo
gram
s pe
r ca
pita
Per Capita
Petroleum - USA
Data sources: USDOE Energy Information Administration 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Summary • Novel consistent measure of
– Resource demand
– Demand on nature
• 3 Groups (USA)
– 36/100 Commodities that ‘Peaked’ – 53/100 Commodities that have ‘Dematerialized’ relatively and
show signs of falling absolute consumption – 11/100 Commodities used in small quantities that improve overall
system efficiency
• Asian countries at different stages of development show similar patterns leading to eventual saturation
Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Thank you for your aQenRon
Program for the Human Environment
The Rockefeller University phe.rockefeller.edu
Data Sources • British Geological Survey, World Mineral Statistics, 1950-1955, 1960-1965 1970-74, 1980-1984, 1986-1990,
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/worldArchive.html
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2014) FAOSTAT. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/F/*/E Accessed January, 2014.
• Johnston L. and Williamson S.H. 2013. Website. Available at MeasuringWorth, URL: http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/ Accessed October 3, 2013
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2012a. Data for cropland was obtained from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Major_Land_Uses/Summary_tables/summary_table_3_cropland_used_for_crops_19102012.xls
• USDA. 2012b. Data for Leading meat (boneless weight): total availability from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Food_Availabily_Per_Capita_Data_System/Food_Availability/mtpcc.xls
• USDA Economic Research Service 2013, http://www.ers.usda.gov/ (accessed 2/2/14).
• USDOE Energy Information Administration. 2013. Data for Fuels and Electricity use obtained from http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/xls/stb0801.xls Data prior to 1949 from Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Table S 45.
• USGS National Minerals Information Center. 2013. U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140 (Supersedes Open-File Report 01-006) Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities in the United States. National Minerals Information Center. Available at: http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data
• USGS 2014, International Minerals Statistics and Information, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/asia.html
• USGS 2009, Kenny, J.F., Barber, N.L., Hutson, S.S., Linsey, K.S., Lovelace, J.K., and Maupin, M.A., 2009, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2005: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1344, 52 p.
• Wernick, I.K., Herman, R., Govind, S. and Ausubel J.H. 1997. Materialization and dmaterialization: Measures and trends. Pp. 135-156 in Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Ausubel, J.H. and Langford H.D., eds. http://phe.rockefeller.edu/Daedalus/Demat/
• World Bank (2014) World Bank data. Available at http://data.worldbank.org. Accessed January, 2014.
Note: “Plastics” data in slides 7 - 10correspond to a category defined by the USGS National Minerals Information Center as Non Renewable Organics (Oil & Gas products). In Wernick et al. (1997) the IOU data for plastics begin in 1943, and represent production data only. Sources: Modern Plastics 37 (5) (1960); data on US production of plastics resin, personal communication with Joel Broyhill, statistics department, Society of the Plastics Industry, Washington, D.C., 20 August 1993. Wernick & Ausubel 2014
Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Wernick & Ausubel 2014
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