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Jack Henry & AssociatesPresented April 10, 2008
Jonathan GohDan Xu
Agenda
I. Company OverviewII. Accounting AnalysisIII. Industry Analysis & Economic OutlookIV. Competitors V. Portfolio Fit & ValuationVI. Recommendation
Company OverviewBusiness Overview
Revenue Breakdown
Major Holders
Company Overview Jack Henry Banking
Banking solutions for business information and financial transactions
Expanded within the De-Novo and Mid-Tier Market Supports 15% of Mid-Tier Banks Assets from $1 billion to $30 billion
Capitalized on emerging shift from in-house to out-sourced solutions
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Company Overview Symitar
Acquired by Jack Henry & Assoc. in 2000 Provides core processing solutions for credit
unions of all sizes 6 Corporate Credit Unions 36 of 123 Credit Unions with assets over $1billion
Market Leader in Core Processing Platforms for Credit Unions Leader in Credit Unions with assets over $25 million
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Company Overview ProfitStars
Risk Mitigation and Control Solutions Fraud Detection and Prevention Enterprise Risk Management Identity Management and Control Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Solutions
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Revenue Streams
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Revenue Breakdown
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Revenue Breakdown
Source: Jack Henry and Associates, 2007 Annual Report
Management – Executive Committee John Prim – CEO, Director
Previously served as the President and COO Tony Wormington – President/COO
Key strengths in operational management and research Kevin Williams, CPA– CFO, Treasurer
Appointed as CFO in 2001 Joined as controller in 1998
Management Assessment No incumbent founding members Combination of operational and technological
expertise Maintained very strong financial health historically
Source: OneSource Business Browser, Reuters
Management – Board of Directors Michael Henry – Chairman
Son of late founder; director since 1986 Former CEO, SVP and Head of Research
Wesley Brown, since 2005 MD of St. Charles Capital, LLC (Denver, CO)
Craig Curry, since 2004 CEO of Central Bank (Lebanon, MO)
James Ellis, since 1985 Managing Partner of Ellis/Rosier Financial Services
Matthew Flanigan, since 2007 SVP and CFO of a Missourri based manufacturing
company
Source: OneSource Business Browser, Reuters
Management – Board of Directors Jerry Hall, since inception
Co-Founder of JKHY, former CEO John Prim, since 2004
Current CEO Marla Shepard, since 2007
President and CEO of First Future Credit Union (San Diego)
Board of Directors Assessment 5 out of 8 Independent directors Diverse experience in consumer banking and
operations Renewal of Directors in recent years
Source: OneSource Business Browser, Reuters
Major Shareholders
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Breakdown Proportion
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners
10%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners
84%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares
235
Major Direct Shareholders Shares
Michael E. Henry 1,233,447
Jerry D. Hall 1,138,308
John W. Henry 1,004,727
Tony L. Wormington 510,075
James J. Ellis 300,000
Accounting Analysis
Earnings Quality Analysis
DuPont Analysis
Cash Flow Analysis
Summary of Accounting Analysis
Earnings Quality Analysis
Big Picture:Revenue, Assets, Net Income & Stockholder’s Equity have increased steadily in past three years.
Diluted EPS & Dividends declared per share have increased steadily in past three years.
Assets
•Assets grows steadily•Large and growing cash position
Liabilities & Equity
•No debt•Significant Increase in Free Cash Flow in 2006 over 2005, and in 2007, it decreased a little bit, but still acceptable
Income Statement
•Steady gains•Profits are generated from Continuing Operations•No non-recurring profits
DuPont Analysis
• Ratios are steadily increasing
• Asset Turnover is not increasing from2005, but not volatile
Cash Flow Profile
All numbers are in thousands * Data not availableSource: Forbes.com
• Positive CFO• Negative CFI• Negative CFF in
2006 and 2007
2005, JKHY acquired Tangent Analytics, LLC, (“Tangent”), RPM Intelligence, LLC, with payments $4,000and $6,241 in cash before any earn-out , respectively
Cash Flow Analysis
2005 2006 2007 1st quarter 2008
2nd quarter 2008
CFO + + + + +
CFI - - - - -
CFF + - - - -
StrongGrowing
2nd Quarter Earnings Review EPS GAAP of $0.32
Inline with Consensus Estimate
Earnings Guidance Strong growth in Support and Services
Outsourcing In-house maintenance ATM/Debit card processing
Improved Cost control
Back Log Measure of future business and revenue Current Quarter increase of 1% Increased 7% from a year ago
Share Repurchase Program Under authorization of the Board of Directors, the company may
repurchase shares with available cash and short term borrowings
On June 30, 2006, there were 2,766 shares in the treasury stock and the company had authority to repurchase up to 2,225 shares
On August 25, 2006, the Board approved an authorization for an additional 5,000 shares
During fiscal 2007, the Company repurchased 4,335 shares for $98,413
At June 30, 2007, there were 7,101 shares in treasury stock and the Company had the authority to repurchase up to 2,890 additional shares
On Feb 4th, the Board of Directors authorized another 5,000 shares bringing the total authorization to 15,000 shares
Summary of Accounting Analysis
• High-quality earnings can be characterized as repeatable, controllable and bankable
• Strong Cash Flow• Large and Growing Cash Position• Virtually no debt• Conservatively Capitalize• Minimal off-balance sheet commitments
Industry Analysis&
Economic Outlook
JKHY & Industry Past Performance
Industry Analysis Industry: Application Software ( GICS Industry Classification
45103010) JKHY is in an industry with a healthy number1 of competitors,
and looking at its sales, it is one of the smaller players Industry peers tend to fall in or around the small-cap growth
area Most stocks in the industry have seen steadily growing revenue
and earnings over the past three years
Company Outlook: The economy will finally improve in seeable future, possibly in 2009-20122, which should lead a rise in technology and information spending by banks and credit unions.
Even in the unlikely event of continuing economic downturn, JKHY’s ability to make profits from recurring continuing business operations can provide a cushion of support
1. Morningstar.com 2. Valueline.com
Economic Outlook Tighter consumer spending
More cash in savings and loans and credit unions Reversion to traditional lending standards
Potential slowdown in the Financial Services sector Tightening costs and consolidation amongst banks Shift from licensing software to outsourcing EFTs still show strong potential growth
Jack Henry’s Position in the Economy Well positioned in an economic slowdown
Good business mix Low Financial Leverage
Competitors
Past performance comparison
SWOT analysis
1. Numbers from Morningstar2. All the numbers are up to 4-1-2008 5. 5yr ROA and 5yr Average Net margin use fiscal year-end. TTM=trailing 12 months.
5. Numbers from Morningstar6.Industry Average is equal-weighted7.All the numbers are up to 4-1-2008
Past Performance Comparison
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Weakness & Threats Jack Henry competes with larger firms that have significantly
more resources to invest in upgrading their systems Consolidation in the banking industry is shrinking Jack
Henry's customer base, and the surviving banks are larger, potentially giving them greater bargaining power
Margins in Jack Henry's service and support segment are much lower than in its licensing segment. As service and support are accounting for an increasing portion of total revenue, this shift will pressure margins.
Ongoing declines in the price of computer hardware are driving down revenue and margins in Jack Henry's hardware segment
Substantial switching costs mean Jack Henry rarely loses customers, it also makes it difficult to take business from competitors and increase the top line.
Strength & Opportunity Banks are very reluctant to switch their core processing provider, creating a
wide economic moat for the company's business. Customers typically sign five- to seven-year contracts with Jack Henry, and attrition is very low--only about 3% annually--with the bulk of customer losses the result of customers being acquired by another bank
The breadth of Jack Henry's product portfolio and its focus on serving small banks leaves it well-positioned
Margins in the service and support segment, which accounts for 72% of revenue and 60% of gross profit, are much lower but still healthy is recurring and very stable because of low customer attrition
Banks' increasing preference toward purchasing integrated suites of products as opposed to buying products individually should increase cross-selling opportunities for core processors, such as Jack Henry1
Regulatory changes2 are forcing smaller banks to upgrade their systems, driving demand for Jack Henry's products
Unlike other core processors, Jack Henry has an unlevered balance sheet, giving it greater flexibility to pursue attractive acquisition opportunities as they arise
Below average Business risk Good history of dividends payment, unlike most peers in the industry
1. Morningstar2. Morningstar
Valuation &
Portfolio Fit
Projected Free Cash Flows
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Net income 49,397 62,315 75,501 89,923 104,681 112,767 129,920 153,599 180,842 200,685 219,951
% Change YOY 26% 21% 19% 16% 8% 15% 18% 18% 11% 10%
+
Depreciation 24,025 26,790 29,795 33,442 36,427 36,448 41,580 47,901 54,627 63,137 74,786
+
Amortization 6,169 6,750 9,116 10,332 14,527 15,078 17,561 20,512 23,716 27,496 31,904
Change in Net Working Capital (1,098) 10,040 (39,433) (1,287) 28,935 (1,470) (2,064) (7,706) 7,662 12,160
Capital Expenditures 45,958 49,141 58,046 45,396 34,202 43,075 49,140 56,610 64,559 74,616 88,384
FCFF 33,633 47,812 46,326 127,734 122,720 92,284 141,391 167,465 202,332 209,038 250,418
Terminal Value 3,692,074
PV of FCFF 82,307 112,471 118,811 128,028 117,972 126,045
NPV(TV) 1,858,370
Sustainable Growth Rate 5%
Cost of Capital and Firm ValuationRisk Free Rate (10 Yr T-Bond) 3.51% W(Equity) 98.85%
Beta 1.47 W(Debt) 1.15%
Return on Market 9.47% W(Preferred) 0.00%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 12.25% Total 100%
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) 3.45%
Effective Tax Rate 36.14%
After Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) 1.30%
WACC 12.12%
Firm Valuation
Value of Operations 2,544,005
Non-Operating Assets (Cash, etc) 209,055
Non-Equity Claims (Long Term Debt) 343
Stock Price 29.14
10% 32.06
-10% 26.23
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis (WACC and SGR)
#REF! 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50%10.00% 32.26 34.21 36.50 39.20 42.44 46.40 51.34 57.7111.00% 27.90 29.32 30.94 32.81 34.99 37.57 40.67 44.4512.00% 24.52 25.58 26.78 28.14 29.69 31.47 33.56 36.0313.00% 21.82 22.64 23.55 24.57 25.72 27.01 28.50 30.2114.00% 19.63 20.27 20.98 21.77 22.64 23.61 24.71 25.9515.00% 17.80 18.32 18.89 19.50 20.18 20.93 21.77 22.7016.00% 16.27 16.69 17.14 17.64 18.18 18.77 19.42 20.14
Market DataJack Henry and Associates Nasdaq
Current P/E (ttm) 21.60 Current P/E (ttm) 27.20
Forward P/E (1yr) 17.53 Forward P/E (1/yr) 20.30
Current EPS (ttm) $1.19 S&P 500
Last Close $25.70 Current P/E (ttm) 19.94
Implied Earnings
$1.47 Forward P/E (1/yr) 13.81
Earnings Growth
24% Industry
52 Week Range 22.22 - 29.24
Current P/E (ttm) 20.80
Historical P/E (4 yrs)
23.00
Current Portfolio Fit
Based on the close price at April 2, 2008
Jack Henry and Associates Overview
Company
Management B
Operations A
Financial Health A
Industry
Positioning A
Dividend Yield A
Return on Equity A
Economy
Leverage A
Business Mix A
Jack Henry and Associates Overview Current Price : $ 25.47 1
DCF price: $29.14 Fair Opinion: $26.23 - $32.06 Recommendation: HOLD
1. Closing price on April 7th 2008.
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