Is an ecosystem more than a list of its parts?

HOW MIGHT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES?

Is an ecosystem more than a list of its parts?

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Figure 9.3

9-4

Greenhouse Diagram - Energy Loss

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Carbon Cycle - historical

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Carbon Cycle - current

What should we ask?

Are the data correct? Is the model system complete? Are the links correct? Do we properly understand the dynamic

influences on how materials flow among the parts?

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the past 160,000 years from the Vostok ice core (from

Barola et al. 1987)

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Figure 9.1

9-1 Source: Data from Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps Institute of Oceanography.

More Recent changes in CO2

Oceanic Carbon

Dynamic Balance is Central

Climate skeptics: “Most emission of carbon and methane is from natural sources, so human activity cannot be responsible for increases in carbon dioxide.”

What do you think about this claim?

Atmopsheric Carbon vs. Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions (1900- present)

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Temperature/120 yrs ago

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Temperature/1,000 yrs ago

Figure 9.11c

Acknowledging Uncertainty

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Temperature/10,000 yrs ago

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Temperature/900,000 yrs ago

Figure 9.11a

9-11 Source: Data from National Climate Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA, 1998.

The Next Steps

How does climate affect ecosystems?

How do ecosystem responses alter “ecosystem services”?

Issues vary with scale

Global scale Is the carbon cycle responsible for changes in

global climate? How will warming influence major ecosystem

cycles? Landscape scale

What good is “ecosystem X”? How many components (diversity) are needed

to provide ecosystem services?

What are the potential consequences of CO2 enrichment?

Bruce E. Johnson (Z Magazine, 2002)

Lloyd’s of London executive is more worried about global warming than terrorism – why?

What are the major potential changes?

Task: Characterize an ecosystem

Question: how will ANWR respond to global warming?

Identify the materials most important to the overall question [hint: focus on carbon]

Identify the relevant “compartments” Indicate a hypothesis about how these

materials move among compartments Indicate possible important influences on

those exchanges