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HOW MIGHT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES?
Is an ecosystem more than a list of its parts?
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Figure 9.3
9-4
Greenhouse Diagram - Energy Loss
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Carbon Cycle - historical
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Carbon Cycle - current
What should we ask?
Are the data correct? Is the model system complete? Are the links correct? Do we properly understand the dynamic
influences on how materials flow among the parts?
Atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the past 160,000 years from the Vostok ice core (from
Barola et al. 1987)
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Figure 9.1
9-1 Source: Data from Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps Institute of Oceanography.
More Recent changes in CO2
Oceanic Carbon
Dynamic Balance is Central
Climate skeptics: “Most emission of carbon and methane is from natural sources, so human activity cannot be responsible for increases in carbon dioxide.”
What do you think about this claim?
Atmopsheric Carbon vs. Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions (1900- present)
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Temperature/120 yrs ago
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Temperature/1,000 yrs ago
Figure 9.11c
Acknowledging Uncertainty
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Temperature/10,000 yrs ago
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Temperature/900,000 yrs ago
Figure 9.11a
9-11 Source: Data from National Climate Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA, 1998.
The Next Steps
How does climate affect ecosystems?
How do ecosystem responses alter “ecosystem services”?
Issues vary with scale
Global scale Is the carbon cycle responsible for changes in
global climate? How will warming influence major ecosystem
cycles? Landscape scale
What good is “ecosystem X”? How many components (diversity) are needed
to provide ecosystem services?
What are the potential consequences of CO2 enrichment?
Bruce E. Johnson (Z Magazine, 2002)
Lloyd’s of London executive is more worried about global warming than terrorism – why?
What are the major potential changes?
Task: Characterize an ecosystem
Question: how will ANWR respond to global warming?
Identify the materials most important to the overall question [hint: focus on carbon]
Identify the relevant “compartments” Indicate a hypothesis about how these
materials move among compartments Indicate possible important influences on
those exchanges
