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PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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By Tonnie Tekelenburg
Introduction to scenarios and policy options
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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What is a scenario?
Scenarios are credible, challenging, and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that can be told in both words and numbers.
Scenarios are plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.
Scenarios are not forecasts, projections, or predictions.
Scenarios
• Have the ability to address complex issues in an integrated manner. • Have the ability to deal with surprises, system changes, alternatives. • Are an excellent tool for communication • Possibilities for participation are large.
Archetypes of scenario analysis
Advocacy, vision building
Strategic orientation
Policy contrasting
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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without
with
1
4
3
1
2
Advocacy, vision building
Question: What are the positive changes we are going to fight for?
Scenario type: Reference case and fully developed alternative scenario= with – without alternatives = ‘Good’ versus ‘bad’
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Strategic orientation Question:
For what alternative worlds do we need to prepare ourselves?
Scenarios: Sets of one to four rich, contrasting futures. Mix of storylines and data.
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Global environment outlook 3 Outlook 2002-2030
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the
currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries.
In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve
specific social and environmental goals.
The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict,
brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail.
Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to
the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Solidarity/Pro-active
Sustainability sound
Self-interest/Reactive
Economic efficiency
Regional
Global
Global
Markets
/
Market First
Global
Sustainability
/
Policy First
Continental
Barriers
/
Conflict first
Regional
Sustainability
/
Small is beautiful
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Three scenarios in the EU
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Drought Desert formation
Flooding
Convulsive change
+
+
Big is Beautiful
Knowledge is King
Information Technology dominates
Inventions
Final analysis of actors, sectors and factors and underlying pressures
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Climate
Water
Land use change
Population, Migration
Environmental education
Regional Policies
Agrarian Policies
Deserti- fication
National scenarios – essential elements Your scenario could have information on: Factors: Sectors: Actors:
Economic development Agriculture Government
Population growth Tourism Businesses
Technology Energy NGOs
Environmental Policies Water
Scientists Forestry
Institutions etc.
State of environment
(Biodiversity!)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Assumed preferences per scenario
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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A1 A2 B1 B2
Competitiveness EU agriculture ••• • •• ○
Self sufficiency potential ○ •• ○ •••
Food quality and safety • • •• •••
Competitive prices of food products ••• •• • ○
Viability of the countryside ○ •• • •••
Biodiversity ○ ••• •••
Landscape values ○ •• • •••
Greenhouse gas mitigation ○ ○ ••• •
Reduction of nutrient and pesticide loads ○ ○ •• •••
Wealth convergence between EU regions • ○ ••• ••
Wealth convergence world wide • ○ ••• •
Control expenditure and bureaucracy ••• •• • •
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Comparison land use 2030
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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A1- 2030
A2- 2030 B2- 2030
B1- 2030
Sum land abandonment
Policy comparison from one baseline scenario Question: what policy variant is most effective, cost-
efficient, fast, acceptable, …..
Scenario type: Baseline with comparison policy variants (one button)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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OECD - Baseline scenario assumptions (2050) Moderate growth:
– 1.5 x global population – 2.5 x global energy use – 3 x income per person
Long-term trends in labour productivity, labour supply, trade Current policies, no new policies gradual slowing
somewhat conservative Sectoral shifts Kyoto measures included (1,8 º)
Optimistic growth in food productivity => limits further forest conversion
Continue clear felling forestry
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Global Biodiversity Outlook: Policy Options Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss
by 2010 (-> 2050)? At the global, regional and biome levels? At what cost?
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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biodiversity
time
Options?
baseline
2000
Comparison policy options
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Trade off between policy options: Climate mitigation (global)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Biodiversity gain climate mitigation
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Biodiversity loss by climate mitigation
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Assignment: brainstorm session What policy options are available to reduce terrestrial
biodiversity loss ?
What are best practices?
Rank the options in effectiveness
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Note: Include options that lead to a reduced land claim or lower land use intensity, a change in production methods & consumption patterns
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