Introduction to scenarios - globio.info. Introduction to scenarios and... · PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013 2 What is a scenario?

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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By Tonnie Tekelenburg

Introduction to scenarios and policy options


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What is a scenario?

Scenarios are credible, challenging, and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that can be told in both words and numbers.

Scenarios are plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.

Scenarios are not forecasts, projections, or predictions.

Scenarios

• Have the ability to address complex issues in an integrated manner. • Have the ability to deal with surprises, system changes, alternatives. • Are an excellent tool for communication • Possibilities for participation are large.

Archetypes of scenario analysis

Advocacy, vision building

Strategic orientation

Policy contrasting


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without

with

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4

3

1

2

Advocacy, vision building

Question: What are the positive changes we are going to fight for?

Scenario type: Reference case and fully developed alternative scenario= with – without alternatives = ‘Good’ versus ‘bad’


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Strategic orientation Question:

For what alternative worlds do we need to prepare ourselves?

Scenarios: Sets of one to four rich, contrasting futures. Mix of storylines and data.


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Global environment outlook 3 Outlook 2002-2030


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The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the

currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries.

In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve

specific social and environmental goals.

The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict,

brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail.

Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to

the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions


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Solidarity/Pro-active

Sustainability sound

Self-interest/Reactive

Economic efficiency

Regional

Global

Global

Markets

/

Market First

Global

Sustainability

/

Policy First

Continental

Barriers

/

Conflict first

Regional

Sustainability

/

Small is beautiful


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Three scenarios in the EU


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Drought Desert formation

Flooding

Convulsive change

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Big is Beautiful

Knowledge is King

Information Technology dominates

Inventions

Final analysis of actors, sectors and factors and underlying pressures


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Climate

Water

Land use change

Population, Migration

Environmental education

Regional Policies

Agrarian Policies

Deserti- fication

National scenarios – essential elements Your scenario could have information on: Factors: Sectors: Actors:

Economic development Agriculture Government

Population growth Tourism Businesses

Technology Energy NGOs

Environmental Policies Water

Scientists Forestry

Institutions etc.

State of environment

(Biodiversity!)


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Assumed preferences per scenario


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A1 A2 B1 B2

Competitiveness EU agriculture ••• • •• ○

Self sufficiency potential ○ •• ○ •••

Food quality and safety • • •• •••

Competitive prices of food products ••• •• • ○

Viability of the countryside ○ •• • •••

Biodiversity ○ ••• •••

Landscape values ○ •• • •••

Greenhouse gas mitigation ○ ○ ••• •

Reduction of nutrient and pesticide loads ○ ○ •• •••

Wealth convergence between EU regions • ○ ••• ••

Wealth convergence world wide • ○ ••• •

Control expenditure and bureaucracy ••• •• • •


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Comparison land use 2030


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A1- 2030

A2- 2030 B2- 2030

B1- 2030

Sum land abandonment

Policy comparison from one baseline scenario Question: what policy variant is most effective, cost-

efficient, fast, acceptable, …..

Scenario type: Baseline with comparison policy variants (one button)


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OECD - Baseline scenario assumptions (2050) Moderate growth:

– 1.5 x global population – 2.5 x global energy use – 3 x income per person

Long-term trends in labour productivity, labour supply, trade Current policies, no new policies gradual slowing

somewhat conservative Sectoral shifts Kyoto measures included (1,8 º)

Optimistic growth in food productivity => limits further forest conversion

Continue clear felling forestry


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Global Biodiversity Outlook: Policy Options Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss

by 2010 (-> 2050)? At the global, regional and biome levels? At what cost?


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biodiversity

time

Options?

baseline

2000

Comparison policy options


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Trade off between policy options: Climate mitigation (global)


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Biodiversity gain climate mitigation


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Biodiversity loss by climate mitigation


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Assignment: brainstorm session What policy options are available to reduce terrestrial

biodiversity loss ?

What are best practices?

Rank the options in effectiveness


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Note: Include options that lead to a reduced land claim or lower land use intensity, a change in production methods & consumption patterns

Documents

Introduction to scenarios - globio.info. Introduction to scenarios and... · PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013 2 What is a scenario?