View
8
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
28TH LOWELL WAKEFIELD FISHERIES SYMPOSIUM
Responses of Arctic Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change
March 26-29, 2013 Anchorage, Alaska
Photo: Arctic cod under the ice by Elizabeth Siddon
History of Wakefield Symposia • "Taxon-centric" Symposia (17):
• Chionoecetes spp., Dungeness, King Crab, Tanner crab, crab, Herring, sablefish, walleye pollock, rockfish, flatfish, gadids, forage fish, sea lions
• "Discipline-centric" Symposia (7): • Seafood quality, genetics, stock assessment
models, management strategies • Ecosystem-Based Approaches (1998, 2010) • "People-centric" Symposium (2011) • Global change sub-theme (4 Symposia) • "Ecosystem-centric": The Arctic (2013)
Geographic scope
• Circumpolar • Bias towards Pacific (Western) Arctic
Map from University of Texas Perry-Castaneda library
Perspectives
• Pan-Arctic
Perspectives
• Pan-Arctic
• Vertically integrated
Climate
Oceanography
Plankton
Fish
Seabirds & Mar mammals
Humans
Perspectives
• Pan-Arctic
• Vertically integrated
• Interdisciplinary
Major forces shaping the future of the Arctic
• Demographic trends • Natural resource demand • Global Warming • Globalization
From Laurence C. Smith (2010) "The World in 2050"
"THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE – IT'S JUST NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED" William Gibson, quoted in The Economist (December 4, 2003)
Projected 21st Century Surface Temperature Change by MIROC-ESM (Difference in 2080-2099 from 1980-1999)
RCP2.6 Emissions Scenario (low)
RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (high)
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
Courtesy of S. Watanabe (JAMSTEC)
8-9 oC (~15 oF)
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-3-2
-10
12
34
Barrow air temperature anomalies Te
mpe
ratu
re a
nom
aly
(o C)
2002 (Sep 9)
2007 (Sep 16)
2005 (Sep 22)
2012 (Sep 16)
Courtesy of Takashi Kikuchi (JAMSTEC)
Age of Ice • Reduction in ice volume
likely more dramatic than reduction in spatial extent
From: 2012 Arctic Report Card (Perovich et al.)
< 15% ice
1st Year
3rd Year
2nd Year
4th Year
5+Years
Shipping: Northern Sea Route
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2010 2011 2012
Num
ber o
f shi
ps Number of international
cargo ships sailing the Northern Sea Route
Sources New York Times, Oct 7, 2011 Barents Observer, Nov 23, 2012
Map: Arctic Logisitic Information Office (http://www.arctic-lio.com/NSR)
Symposium Goals
"Advance our understanding of present and future responses of arctic marine ecosystems to climate change"
At all trophic levels from plankton to fish, marine mammals, and humans
Symposium Goals
• Explore approaches to "… managing living marine resources in a changing Arctic" and
• "… managing human responses — locally, regionally, and globally — to changing arctic marine ecosystems"
Schedule Tuesday am
pm
Wednesday am
pm
Thursday am
pm
Friday am
evening
evening
pm / evening
• Keynotes • Session 1: Climate/Oceanography • Session 2: Lower Trophic Levels • Poster session / Reception • Session 2 (cont'd) • Session 3: Marine fishes • Panel: Integrated Arctic Management • Session 4: Birds & Mammals • Session 5: Human dimension • Workshop: Conceptual Models • Session 6: Management • Summary & Wrap-up
Changes to schedule • Check the latest schedule for adjustments due to cancellations
• Two talks moved from Thursday to Wednesday • Bodil Bluhm, Tom Kline
• One talk moved from today to Wednesday • J. Wynn
• Speakers: • Please be sure to check your time!
This morning 8:30–8:45 a.m. Welcome by Franz Mueter, University of Alaska Fairbanks 8:45–9:30 a.m. Keynote Address: Marine Mammals and Sea Ice Loss in the Pacific Arctic:
Tracking ecosystem Responses to the “New Normal”���Sue Moore, NOAA Office of Science and Technology
9:30–10:15 a.m. Keynote Address: Arctic Research and Policy Kate Moran, Ocean Networks Canada
10:15–10:45 a.m. Break
Session 1: Environmental changes in the Arctic 10:45–11:15 a.m. Invited Talk: Changing Arctic Seas: A Very Brief Look at Ice, Water,
Marine Life, and People ���Eddy Carmack, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
11:15–11:35 a.m. On the Role of Advection on the Interaction between the Arctic and Subarctic Seas: Comparing the Atlantic and Pacific Sectors Kenneth Drinkwater, Institute of Marine Research, Norway
11:35–11:55 a.m. The Influence of Climate on Circulation, Water Column Properties, and Plankton Community Structure Phyllis Stabeno (Sue Moore), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
11:55 a.m. Lunch
Presentations & manuscripts • We plan to make presentations available on Symposium website (pdf) • Sue Keller will contact you for permission!
• Manuscripts • Deadline: March 29 (this Friday) • If you are interested, but can't meet the deadline, please contact Sue Keller
We are on Twitter!!
Follow the #WakefieldSymposium onTwitter #lwfs
Steering Committee • David Christie (Sea Grant) • Henry Huntington (Pew) • Jim Irvine (DFO, Canada) • Harald Loeng (IMR, Norway) • Libby Logerwell (AFSC, NOAA) • Steve MacLean (NPFMC) • Franz Mueter (UAF) • Lori Quakenbush (ADF&G) • Cheryl Rosa (US Arctic Research Commission) • Cynthia Suchman/Danielle Dickson (NPRB)
• Sue Keller • Adie Callahan • Dave Partee
Sea Grant staff
Recommended