28TH LOWELL WAKEFIELD FISHERIES SYMPOSIUM

Responses of Arctic Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change

March 26-29, 2013 Anchorage, Alaska

Photo: Arctic cod under the ice by Elizabeth Siddon

History of Wakefield Symposia • "Taxon-centric" Symposia (17):

• Chionoecetes spp., Dungeness, King Crab, Tanner crab, crab, Herring, sablefish, walleye pollock, rockfish, flatfish, gadids, forage fish, sea lions

• "Discipline-centric" Symposia (7): • Seafood quality, genetics, stock assessment

models, management strategies • Ecosystem-Based Approaches (1998, 2010) • "People-centric" Symposium (2011) • Global change sub-theme (4 Symposia) • "Ecosystem-centric": The Arctic (2013)

Geographic scope

• Circumpolar • Bias towards Pacific (Western) Arctic

Map from University of Texas Perry-Castaneda library

Perspectives

• Pan-Arctic

Perspectives

• Pan-Arctic

• Vertically integrated

Climate

Oceanography

Plankton

Fish

Seabirds & Mar mammals

Humans

Perspectives

• Pan-Arctic

• Vertically integrated

• Interdisciplinary

Major forces shaping the future of the Arctic

• Demographic trends • Natural resource demand • Global Warming • Globalization

From Laurence C. Smith (2010) "The World in 2050"

"THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE – IT'S JUST NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED" William Gibson, quoted in The Economist (December 4, 2003)

Projected 21st Century Surface Temperature Change by MIROC-ESM (Difference in 2080-2099 from 1980-1999)

RCP2.6 Emissions Scenario (low)

RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (high)

RCP4.5

RCP6.0

Courtesy of S. Watanabe (JAMSTEC)

8-9 oC (~15 oF)

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-3-2

-10

12

34

Barrow air temperature anomalies Te

mpe

ratu

re a

nom

aly

(o C)

2002 (Sep 9)

2007 (Sep 16)

2005 (Sep 22)

2012 (Sep 16)

Courtesy of Takashi Kikuchi (JAMSTEC)

Age of Ice • Reduction in ice volume

likely more dramatic than reduction in spatial extent

From: 2012 Arctic Report Card (Perovich et al.)

< 15% ice

1st Year

3rd Year

2nd Year

4th Year

5+Years

Shipping: Northern Sea Route

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012

Num

ber o

f shi

ps Number of international

cargo ships sailing the Northern Sea Route

Sources New York Times, Oct 7, 2011 Barents Observer, Nov 23, 2012

Map: Arctic Logisitic Information Office (http://www.arctic-lio.com/NSR)

Symposium Goals

"Advance our understanding of present and future responses of arctic marine ecosystems to climate change"

At all trophic levels from plankton to fish, marine mammals, and humans

Symposium Goals

•  Explore approaches to "… managing living marine resources in a changing Arctic" and

•  "… managing human responses — locally, regionally, and globally — to changing arctic marine ecosystems"

Schedule Tuesday am

pm

Wednesday am

pm

Thursday am

pm

Friday am

evening

evening

pm / evening

• Keynotes • Session 1: Climate/Oceanography • Session 2: Lower Trophic Levels • Poster session / Reception • Session 2 (cont'd) • Session 3: Marine fishes • Panel: Integrated Arctic Management • Session 4: Birds & Mammals • Session 5: Human dimension • Workshop: Conceptual Models • Session 6: Management • Summary & Wrap-up

Changes to schedule •  Check the latest schedule for adjustments due to cancellations

•  Two talks moved from Thursday to Wednesday • Bodil Bluhm, Tom Kline

•  One talk moved from today to Wednesday • J. Wynn

•  Speakers: • Please be sure to check your time!

This morning 8:30–8:45 a.m.   Welcome by Franz Mueter, University of Alaska Fairbanks  8:45–9:30 a.m.   Keynote Address: Marine Mammals and Sea Ice Loss in the Pacific Arctic:

Tracking ecosystem Responses to the “New Normal”���Sue Moore, NOAA Office of Science and Technology  

9:30–10:15 a.m.   Keynote Address: Arctic Research and Policy        Kate Moran, Ocean Networks Canada  

10:15–10:45 a.m.   Break  

Session 1: Environmental changes in the Arctic  10:45–11:15 a.m.   Invited Talk: Changing Arctic Seas: A Very Brief Look at Ice, Water,

Marine Life, and People ���Eddy Carmack, Fisheries and Oceans Canada  

11:15–11:35 a.m.   On the Role of Advection on the Interaction between the Arctic and Subarctic Seas: Comparing the Atlantic and Pacific Sectors  Kenneth Drinkwater, Institute of Marine Research, Norway  

11:35–11:55 a.m.   The Influence of Climate on Circulation, Water Column Properties, and Plankton Community Structure  Phyllis Stabeno (Sue Moore), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory  

11:55 a.m.   Lunch  

Presentations & manuscripts • We plan to make presentations available on Symposium website (pdf) • Sue Keller will contact you for permission!

• Manuscripts • Deadline: March 29 (this Friday) •  If you are interested, but can't meet the deadline, please contact Sue Keller

We are on Twitter!!

Follow the #WakefieldSymposium onTwitter #lwfs

Steering Committee • David Christie (Sea Grant) • Henry Huntington (Pew) •  Jim Irvine (DFO, Canada) • Harald Loeng (IMR, Norway) •  Libby Logerwell (AFSC, NOAA) • Steve MacLean (NPFMC) •  Franz Mueter (UAF) •  Lori Quakenbush (ADF&G) • Cheryl Rosa (US Arctic Research Commission) • Cynthia Suchman/Danielle Dickson (NPRB)

• Sue Keller • Adie Callahan • Dave Partee

Sea Grant staff