INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Nov 2011 COP 17 Durban Gaëtan Siew UIA P President GLOBALTRENDS...

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

Nov 2011

COP 17COP 17DurbanDurban

Gaëtan Siew UIA P President

GLOBALGLOBAL TRENDSTRENDS

“It is not a matter of predicting the future, but of being prepared for it”Pericles (500-429 BC) Greek politician and commander

A World of Global ImbalancesContrasted TerritoriesRegionalisationPower and Complexity of NetworksNew PartnershipsGlobal Governance

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

A World of Contrasts

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

Sao Paulo, Brazil

•North – Old and Fragile•South – Young and Poor•South 90% < 25 years old

Jodhpur, India

Rich/poorKnowledgeDigital fracture

•Brain drain/Mobility•Competing Cities

•7,0 billions population•6,2 billions mobiles•5,5 billions radios•4,5 billions tv•2,6 billion computers•0,6 b Facebook

A World of Contrasts

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

Sao Paulo, Brazil

Jodhpur, India

Rich/poorKnowledgeDigital fracture

Digital fracture

•7,0 billions population•6,2 billions mobiles•5,5 billions radios•4,5 billions tv•2,6 billion computers•0,6 b Facebook

An Urban World

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

The World•2007 : > 50% urban population•Monster or sustainable cities ?• + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050•500 000 slum dwellers /month•Heritage at risk

Sao Paulo, Brazil

An Urban World

Population m•Tokyo 35.2•Jakarta 22,0•Bombay 21,2•Delhi 21,0•Manila 20,8•New York 20,6•Sao Paulo 20,2•Seoul 19,9•Mexico 18,7•Shanghai 18.4•Cairo 17,3

GUP b €•Tokyo 1 191 •New York 1 133•Los Angeles 639•Paris 460•Chicago 460•Londres 452•Osaka-Kobe 341•Mexico 315•Philadelphia 312•Washington 299

A World of refuge blocks

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

RegionalisationOwn values betrayal

•By Language•By Culture•By Trade•By Geopolitics

A World of Global Issues and Crisis

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Climate ChangeCultural DiversityEconomic CrisisFood crisisLand ownership

CO2 Emissions tons/p•Qatar 48.3•Bahrein 27.0•Emirates 25.9•Koweit 25.7•Luxembourg 23.6

Climate refugeesBangladesh Abandoned city

Texas, USA

Global Trends

Technology: death of distance ?Technology: death of distance ?Health and PandemiasHealth and PandemiasIncreasing MobilityIncreasing MobilityEnvironment DeclineEnvironment DeclineIdentity v/s GlobalisatioIdentity v/s Globalisation

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

Lessons ?

INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS

Succ

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New ModelNew Model•Old Model adjusting ?•End of Era ?•New model of opportunities ?