View
7
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
© Fraunhofer ISE
©Fraunhofer ISE / Photo: Guido Kirsch
INTERNATIONAL MARKET TRENDS IN SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar EnergySystems ISE
Dr. Wolfgang Kramer
Mexico-City, July 30th, 2019
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
2
Global Solar Demand and Supply
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
annual world
energy demand
510 EJ
(~16 TW cont.)
© Fraunhofer ISE
3
Solar Thermal Technologies
Domestic Hot Water Preparationand Space Heating
Solar Heat in Industrial Processes(SHIP)
Solare District HeatingSolar Thermal Cooling
© Fraunhofer ISE
4
Solar Thermal Space Heating and DHW Preparation Components - Collectors
50-150°C
30-80°C
20-30°C
vacuum tube collector DHW and space heating
flat plate collectorDHW and space heating
polymer absorberheating of swimming pools
source: Wagner Solartechnik
source:Ritter XL
source: Roth Werke
© Fraunhofer ISE
5
MarketsWorld Market Solar Thermal
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
6
MarketsWorld Market Solar Thermal (new installed 2017)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
7
MarketsMarkets by Regions 2017 (new installed)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
8
MarketsMarket by countries 2017 (new installed)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
9
MarketsMarket by countries 2018 (growth rates)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2017
© Fraunhofer ISE
10
MarketsMarkets by technologies (new installed in 2017)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
World 2017
Europe 2017
© Fraunhofer ISE
11
MarketsMarkets by technology (new glazed collectors 2017)
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
12
MarketsAnnual Growth Rates of Installed Capacity
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
13
MarketsTop Players Flat Plate Collectors produced in 2017
© Fraunhofer ISE
14
MarketsTop Players Vacuum Tube Collectors produced in 2014
◼ Sunrain, China 5.4 mio m²
◼ Himin, China 2.0 mio m²
◼ Sunshore, China 1.0 mio m²
◼ Linuo Paradigma, China 0.83 mio m²
◼ BTE Solar, China 0.2 mio m²
◼ Supreme Solar, India 0.12 mio m²
◼ Frantor, Mexico 0.09 mio m²
◼ Sangle , China 0.08 mio m²
◼ Sudershan, India 0.06 mio m²
◼ V-Guard, India 0.06 mio m²
Data from: sun&wind energy, 10/2015
© Fraunhofer ISE
15 [1] http://solarheateurope.eu/project/wagner-co-solar-heat-europe-flat-collectors/
[2] http://www.cremur.com/renewables/solar-thermal/product/1529-evacuated-tube-collectors.html
[3] copyright Industrial Solar GmbH
[4] https://www.dlr.de/sf/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-11127/18797_read-43622/
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesCollector Technologies
Types of solar collectors:
◼ Flat Plate FPC
◼ Evacuated Tube ETC
◼ Linear Fresnel LFC
◼ Parabolic Trough PTC
[1] [2]
[3] [4]
© Fraunhofer ISE
16
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesMarket, New installed 2017
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
17
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesMarket, In Operation 03/2019 by Applications
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
18
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesMarket, In Operation 03/2019 by Technology
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
19
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesMarket, In Operation 03/2019 by Countries
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
total number:741total thermal capacity: 567 MWth
© Fraunhofer ISE
20
Existing Projects Examples of Stationary Technologies
[22] Arcon-Sunmark, 2015. http://arcon-sunmark.com/cases/codelco-minera-gaby-chile
[23] http://ship-plants.info/solar-thermal-plants/140-jiangsu-printing-and-dyeing-china?collector_type=4&country=China
Textile Jiangsu Yitong,
ChinaEvacuated Tube
Aperture: 9,000 m2
Application: process pre-heating
Oper. Temp.: 50°C
Commissioning : 2011
© Sunrain Co. Ltd [23]
Copper mine “Gabriela Mistral”, ChileFlat Plate
Aperture: 43,920 m2
Application/End Use:
Process water and electrolyte heating
Oper. Temp.: 50°C
Commissioning : 2015
© Arcon-Sunmark [22]
[5]
© Fraunhofer ISE
21
Existing Projects Examples of Tracking Technologies
[24] http://www.industrial-solar.de/content/en/referenzen/fresnel-kollektor/
[25] http://ship-plants.info/solar-thermal-plants/155-dairy-plant-el-indio-mexico?collector_type=5
Dairy El Indio,
MexicoParabolic Trough
Aperture: 132 m2
Application: Make-up water pre-heating
Oper. Temp.: 95°C
Commissioning : 2012
© Inventive Power S.A. de C.V. [25]
Services MTN Johanesburg, South
AfricaLinear Fresnel
Aperture: 396 m2
Application/End Use: Air conditioning
Oper. Temp.: 180°C
Commissioning : 2014
© Industrial Solar [24]
© Fraunhofer ISE
22
◼ The largest SHIP project: 100MWth, 150000m²
[15] MIT, 2016. Technology Review, Arab Edition. http://technologyreview.me/en/energy/oman-explores-solar-powered-oil-recovery/
[16] https://www.glasspoint.com/
Miraah Solar EOR Pilot Project, Amal, Oman
Petroleum Development Oman
Parabolic Trough in greenhouse
[15]© Petroleum Development Oman.
[16]
[16]
© GlassPoint
© GlassPoint
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesExisting Examples
© Fraunhofer ISE
23
◼ Brewery Göss, Austria: 1064 kWth (1375 m²)
Source: AEE INTEC
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesExisting Examples
© Fraunhofer ISE
24
MarketsCost of Solarthermal Energy 1 EUR cent= 0.21 MXN
© Fraunhofer ISE
25
◼ Learning Curve ST 18% is in line with PV 15,5%
◼ Problem insufficientmarket volume
Source: University of Kassel
learning rates for comaprison from Wikipedia:
Aeronautic 15% Shipbuilding 15-20%
Maschinery 15-25% Ford T-Modell 23%
ST - 18%
PV -15,5%
MarketsCost Reduction of Solarthermal Energy
Accumulated thermal power in GW global for PV, EU for ST
Sp
ecifiq
ue
Syste
m C
ost
in E
UR
/kW
(2
01
5)
© Fraunhofer ISE
26
ST Technology, Market and TrendsConclusions
◼ ST in buildings is a mature Technology
◼ Thermosiphon accounts for 90% of the world market
◼ Predominant application/technology: solar water heating/ thermosiphon, flat plate, vacuum tube
◼ Flat plate and Vacuum tube technology is dominated by chineese companies
◼ Decreasing market since several years, but growth is coming back to some countries
◼ Large variation of generation costs 20 to 200 USD/MWh depending on solar radiation, application, load profile, storage, technology
◼ Continuous cost decrease expected
◼ Promising new applications: Solar Thermal Process Heat, Solar District Heating and PVT
© Fraunhofer ISE
27
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
www.ise.fraunhofer.de@ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
28
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesMarket New Installed
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2019
© Fraunhofer ISE
29
◼ MTN Johannesburg, South Africa
◼ Geometrical features
◼ Length: modular in steps of 4 m
◼ Total width: 7.5 m
◼ Aperture width: 5.5 m
◼ Height: 4 m
◼ Weight: 27 kg/m²
◼ Peak power: 560 W/m²
◼ Max. temp. : 400 °C
MTN Johanesburg, South Africa
Aperture: 396 m2
Application/End Use: Air conditioning
Commissioning : 2014
© Industrial Solar
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesExisting Examples
© Fraunhofer ISE
30
◼ Copper mine “Gabriela Mistral”, Chile
◼ 39.300 m2 FPC
◼ Non pressurized waterstorage (4300 m3)
◼ 85-100% solar fraction
◼ electro winning of copper
◼ electrolyte kept at 50°C
◼ cleaning processes
Source: http://www.arcon.dk/
Solar Heat for Industrial ProcessesExisting Examples
© Fraunhofer ISE
31
Technologies Parabolic Trough
◼ Parabolic mirror focuses only direct sun-light onto an absorber tube
◼ Designed to track the sun along one axis oriented in the north-south or east-west direction.
◼ Reflecting surface normally a curved glass mirror or an aluminium sheet
◼ Water or thermal oil usually used as working fluid
◼ Receptor consists of an absorber tube of an area usually 25 to 35 times smaller than the aperture
Source: gef, UNEP, ome; Technical Study report on SHIP, State of the art in the Mediterranean region
© Fraunhofer ISE
32
Technologies Linear Fresnel
◼ Many nearly flat mirror facets instead of one parabolic mirror
◼ Receiver/Absorber is above mirror rows, which track the sun
◼ High concentration ratio and temperatures up to 400°C
◼ Thermal capacity from 50 kW up to several MW.
◼ Easy to mount on flat roofs as a result of good weight distribution and low wind resistance.
◼ Water/steam or thermal oil usually used as working fluid
◼ High surface coverage
Source: Industrial Solar Gmbh
© Fraunhofer ISE
33
Technologies Dish Technology
◼ Parabolic dish focuses only direct sun-light onto a central receiver (point focus)
Concentrator
Central receiver
Thermal load
Electric load+-
Tracker
◼ Designed to track the sun along two axis
◼ Potential to high (overheated steam) and very high temperatures (chemicalreactions, fusion ofmaterials, etc)
© Fraunhofer ISE
34
Market BarriersLocal markets
◼ Local markets
◼ Technologies of components
◼ Technology of systems
◼ Normative Standards
◼ Cost Structures and levels
◼ Awarness of the customer
© Fraunhofer ISE
35
Market BarriersStandards and Certification
◼ ISO 9806-1,2
◼ EN 12975-1,2
◼ EN 12976-1,2
◼ ASHRAE 93 1986
◼ AS/NZS 2712
◼ DIN EN 12977-3,4
◼ SolarKeymark
(DIN CERTCO for De und CERTIF for Pt)
◼ SRCC
(SRCC for USA)
StandardMark (SAI Global for Australia)
◼ and others
© Fraunhofer ISE
36
Market BarriersReliability/Durability
◼ Proven brands
◼ Prove of performance and durability
◼ Technology acceptance
-10 . . .
-5
-5 ...
0
0 ... 5
5 ... 10
10 ... 1 5
15 ... 20
20 ... 25
25 ... 30
30 ... 35
35 ... 40
40 ... 45
45 ... 50
50 ... 55
55 ... 60
0
200
400
600
0 ... 1010 ... 20
20 ... 30
30 ... 40
40 ... 50
50 ... 60
60 ... 70
70 ... 80
80 ... 90
90 ... 100
RH [%]
T Klebefuge [°C]
h [a]
© Fraunhofer ISE
37
Market BarriersCost Reduction
Competition with other renewables leads to the necesscity of price reduction
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Solar Heating and Cooling Program SHC
TASK 54 Price Reduction of Solarthermal Systems
◼ international joined project platform
◼ topics covered: materials, collector and system technology, production processes, in-direct cost, product complexity analysis tailor-made components with optimized durability
◼ http://task54.iea-shc.org
© Fraunhofer ISE
38
Case Study Hotel Torviscas Canary Islands
Collector Fields - Impressions
source: Wagner Solartechnik
© Fraunhofer ISE
39
source: Viessmann source: Roth Werke
Collector Fields - Impressions
© Fraunhofer ISE
40
Content Heat for Industrial Processes
◼ Heat for Industrial Processes
◼ Solar heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
◼ Sectors, Penetration, Potential, Technologies, Integration
◼ Concentrating Solar uses in SHIP
◼ SHIP framework
◼ Worldwide, In Mexico
◼ SHIP: examples
© Fraunhofer ISE
41
Impact Heat for Industrial Processes
◼ Worldwide 45% of heat is used in Industry [1]
[1] Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 - Pathways to a Clean Energy System, Int. Energy Agency (2012)
Heat generation by region in various sectors (2009) [1]
Heat: 45% in industry
(14% final energy )
© Fraunhofer ISE
42
Sectors & Processes Heat for Industrial Processes
◼ Heat is required at different temperature levels, whose distribution depends on the specific industrial sector [2]
[2] “ECOHEATCOOL – The European Heat Market”, EU IEE co-fund, http://www.euroheat.org/ (2006)
Heat consumption distribution by temperature level in different industrial sectors [2]
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Min
ing a
nd Quarry
ing
Food and T
obacco
Pulp &
pap
er
Chemic
al
Non-Meta
llic M
inera
ls
Basic M
etals
Mac
hinery
Transport
Equipm
ent
Oth
ers
Above 400°C
100 - 400°C
Below 100°C
© Fraunhofer ISE
43
Sectors Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
◼ Suitable industrial processes
◼ Drying and dehydration (Concentration)
◼ Preheating (input or raw material)
◼ Pasteurization and Sterilization
◼ Washing and cleaning
◼ Chemical reactions
◼ Surface treatment
◼ Space heating
◼ Supply of hot water of steam
◼ Main industrial sectors
◼ Chemicals
◼ Food & Beverages
◼ Paper
◼ Fabricated metal
◼ Rubber & Plastic
◼ Machinery & Equipment
◼ Textiles
◼ Wood
© Fraunhofer ISE
44
Penetration Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
◼ Solar thermal applications in industrial sector are increasing. Still < 1% installed solar thermal capacity
[3] W.Weiss, F. Mauthner, Solar Heat Worldwide - Market and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2011, Solar Heating and Cooling
Programme, International Energy Agency, 2013.
Distribution of total installed capacity (glazed water collectors) by application and economic region (end 2011) [3]
© Fraunhofer ISE
45
Potential Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
◼ Its potential is recognized among Solar Heating and Cooling applications
[4] Technology Roadmap - Solar Heating and Cooling, International Energy Agency, 2012.
Roadmap vision for Solar Heating and Cooling [4]
7.2 EJ/a
8.9 EJ/a
1.5 EJ/a
0.4 EJ/a
© Fraunhofer ISE
46
◼ Lower temperature levels are attainable in boiler pre-heating or process level integration layouts
Integration Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
Process level integration
Supply level integration: boiler
pre-heating
© Fraunhofer ISE
47
◼ As steam is often used as heat carrier and industrial end-users are often reluctant on actions interfering with processes, supply level integration layouts are also possible through concentrating technologies
Integration Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP)
Conden-
sate
Solar thermal
System
Steam
Boiler
Feed Water
Feed Water
Tank 103°C
Make-up-
Water 30°C
Condensate
TankConcentrating-Collector
Circulation Pump
Process Steam 250 °C 36 barProcess Steam
Network
Integration
point
Evaporator
Supply level integration: Indirect
Steam Generation
Supply level integration: Direct
Steam Generation
© Fraunhofer ISE
48
Technologies Concentrating Solar uses in SHIP
◼ Classification
TRL level* (in SHIP applications)
1. Basic principles
2. Tech. Concept
3. Exp. Proof
4. Lab. validation
5. Relev. Envir. Val.
6. Relev. Envir. demo
7. Oper. demo
8. System Qualif.
9. System operation
* Source: http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/data/ref/h2020/wp/2014_2015/annexes/h2020-wp1415-annex-g-trl_en.pdf
© Fraunhofer ISE
49
Markets and TrendsWorld Market Solarthermal
◼ Very Inhomogenous
◼ Technology
◼ Prices
◼ Importance of Solar Thermal
© Fraunhofer ISE
50
Back-UP
© Fraunhofer ISE
51
In Mexico SHIP framework
◼ Industrial energy consumption stands for 1.3 EJ (28% of total final energy, in 2009) [1]
◼ 54% in the five most energy-intensive sectors [7]:
◼ iron and steel, Cement, aluminum
◼ chemicals and petrochemicals, pulp and paper
◼ other important sectors [10]:
◼ Agriculture (4,2% GDP 2010)
◼ Automotive (33,3% GDP 2010)
◼ food and beverages, tobacco, mining, textiles, consumer durables
[1] Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 - Pathways to a Clean Energy System, Int. Energy Agency (2012)
[7] Mexico Industry Sectors, Economy Watch (2010) http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/mexico/industry-sector-
industries.html
© Fraunhofer ISE
52
In Mexico SHIP framework
◼ Short (but not inexistent) track record [5]
◼ 6 operating plants
© Fraunhofer ISE
53
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationComponents - Collectors
Flat Plate Collector
absorber sheet
insulation
supply pipe
return pipe
glas cover
meander-tube
source: Wagner Solartechnik
© Fraunhofer ISE
54
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationComponents - Collectors
Direct Flow Vacuumtube collectorHeat transferpipe
Absorber
Vacuumtube
Supplypipe
Returnpipe
Insulation
source: Viessmann Werke GmbH & Co KG
© Fraunhofer ISE
55
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationComponents – Storage, Controller, Hydraulics
ControllerStorage and Hydraulics
© Fraunhofer ISE
56
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationSystems – Pumped DHW
Central Europe (4 person household):
◼ pumped system
◼ 4-6 m² collector area
◼ 300-400 l storage
◼ cost (Germany) approx. 4000-6000 EUR incl. inst.
◼ typical 50-60% solar fraction on DHW = 10-20% total heat demand
© Fraunhofer ISE
57
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationSystems – Combined Space Heating and DHW
◼ pumped system
◼ 10-20 m² collector area
◼ solar fraction 20-40 % of total heat demand
◼ 700-1500 l combi storage tank
◼ market share Germany approx. 50 %
◼ cost (Germany) approx.. 8.000-15.000 EUR incl. installation
E-57E-56
tank in tank storage
© Fraunhofer ISE
58
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationSystems – Combined Space Heating and DHW
storage with externalinstantaneous water heater
(fresh water station)
E-57E-56E-58E-59
storage with internal instantaneous water
heater
© Fraunhofer ISE
59
Solarthermal Heating of Buildings and DHW PreparationSystems – Swimming Pool heating
© Fraunhofer ISE
60
Collector
technology
Annual output
of a typical
factory
(thousand
m²/year)
Production cost
EUR/m²
Jobs per factory
(Jobs p.a.)
Energy
intensity
Industries Synergies
/ potential side-
markets
Co
llect
or
tech
no
logy
Flat Plate collector
(Europe)20-500 70
150-200 (at
50000m² p.a.)Medium Low
Vacuum tube
collector (China) 50-5000Low
SolarthermalData solar collector production
(estimations of Fraunhofer ISE)
© Fraunhofer ISE
61
Markets and Prices/Cost
Spec
ific
colle
cto
rse
llin
gp
rice
Ger
man
y E
UR
/m²
Annual gross thermal yield kWh/m²a
© Fraunhofer ISE
62
Markets and Prices/CostMarket Growth by Region 2014/2015
source: Weiss et al., Solar Heat Worlwide, 2017
© Fraunhofer ISE
63
Solar District HeatingDecentralized Integration of Solar Heat
Gas BoilerCHP
Building
Energy Generation
Solar District
Network
Solar Thermal Systems
National
Power Grid
© Fraunhofer ISE
64
Biomass-
Combined Heat
and Power
Heat Pump
Thermal Solar
Field
35-40000m²
Wind
Power
Elect ricity
Heat
Seasonal
Storage
50-100000m³
Solar District HeatingIntegration of Heat and Power
© Fraunhofer ISE
65
Solar District HeatingMarket, Number of Cumulated Installations
© Fraunhofer ISE
66
System Integration ofSolar Heat, Wind Powerand Biomass
◼ Marstal, Denmark
◼ 33000 m² collector field
◼ 75000 m³ Storage Volume
◼ 23 MWth
◼ 1650 consumers
Foto nur, wenn Freigabe
vorliegt
Quelle: Marstal Fjernvarme/ Kjærgaard Larsen
Solar District HeatingExampels of Installations
© Fraunhofer ISE
67
Decentralized Integration of Solar Heat
◼ Freiburg, Gutleutmatten
◼ 2000 m² collector field
◼ 200 m³ storage volume
◼ 40000 m² living surface
◼ 38 separate solar thermal installations
Solar District HeatingExampels of Installations
© Fraunhofer ISE
68
Solar District HeatingMain Findings
◼ Strongly Growing niche market
◼ Long term economic view
◼ 75% of the world market in Denmark
© Fraunhofer ISE
69
Solar Thermal Space Heating and DHW PreparationApplications
solar DHW10%- 20%
solar combi systems20%-40%
SolarActiveHouses: mainly solar heated50% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 100%
solar fraction of total heat demand of the building
© Fraunhofer ISE
70
Solar Thermal Space Heating and DHW Preparation Systems -Thermosiphon
Asia, Africa, Southern Europe, Latin America:
• Thermosiphon system
• 2-4 m² collector area (FPC or VTC)
• 80-150 l storage tank
• Cheap installation
• 90% of world wide new installed systems
Recommended