Insights about Adaptation, Public Finance and Referenda ... · 5/18/2017  · Ex: Post Workshop 2,...

NASA Heat Map Scenario

2100

CJ Reynolds

Hannah Torres Ph.D.

Broward County Climate Change Task Force

May 18, 2017

Insights about Adaptation, Public Finance and Referenda from the METROPOLE Research Project

What We’ll Cover

• The METROPOLE project

• Highlights and insights about acceptability of public finance mechanisms and infrastructure/adaptation options

• What this means for local government – planning, engagement & communications

METROPOLE was created to understand

potential barriers to adaptation

How values and perceptions shape

decision making about

what adaptation needs to be done, and when,

and how do we want pay for it?

METROPOLEAn Integrated Framework to Analyze Local

Decision Making and Adaptive Capacity to Large-Scale Environmental Change

PROJECT FUNDERS

The Team

Brazil CO-I Dr. Jose Marengo (CEMADEN)

Dr. Lucí Hidalgo Nunes, Dr. Roberto Greco, Fabiano de A. Moreira (IG/UNICAMP)

Dr. Luiz Aragão , Dr. Sin Chan Chou, Lincoln Alves (INPE)

Dr. Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza (IG/SMA)

Dr. Joseph Harari (IO/USP)

Eduardo Kimoto Hosokawa, Ernesto Tabuchi(Municipal de Santos)

Graziella Soares Ribeiro Rodrigues (Fundação Santo André)

UK CO-I Dr. Mark Pelling (Kings College London)

Dr. Shona Paterson (Future Earth Coasts)

Kristen Guida (London Climate Change Partnership)

USA PROJECT PI Dr. Frank Muller-Karger (USF)

CJ Reynolds, Dr. Karen Langbehn, Hannah Torres (USF)

CO-I Dr. Sam Merrill, JT Lockman, Alex Gray (GEI Consultants)

Dr. Jack Kartez, (New England Environmental Finance Center)

Alex Magee (American Planning Association-Florida)

Santos, BRAZILBroward County, FL US

Selsey, UK

The Partners

COAST Vulnerability Assessments &

Scenarios

Interviews with Decision-Makers

The Process

Understand values, perceptions & conditions that influence adaptation planning and institutional

capacity

Pre/Post Workshop Surveys

Two Interactive Workshops per

Community7

The Participants

Local officials, government staff, organization & neighborhood

leaders, technical experts

Demographics: College ed., HH income above median (US/BR), mix of political affiliations, gender, age 21-65

BRUS

Attendees US UK BR

Workshop 1 50 22 36

Workshop 2 20 11 21

UK

Now 25 Years10 Years 100 Years

Never Unsure

Survey Findings -- Adaptation Priorities

Time Options

12-16 Prototypical

Adaptation Options

• Same top 5 in each country – land use policy, green

• Super majority: Local Gov. should Act NOW or 10 Years

• “Green to Gray” adaptation action time continuum

• Major engineering projects – push to future

• Voluntary buy-outs – lowest priority

Public Finance PerspectivesPolitical Affiliation, Gender and Age

Survey – Different Finance Mechanism Acceptability Scale 1 to 5

Create low-interest loan program for flood proofing and elevating

residences

Develop special district assessment on properties in areas designated

highly vulnerable

Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance public infrastructure

improvements

Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based on property taxes

Add flood resiliency surcharge on monthly water utility bill (ex: stormwater

drain improvements)

Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½ cent or 1 cent per dollar)

Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1

MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%

Not

%

Somewhat

%

Moderately

%

Highly

%

Totally

Mean

Score

Create low-interest loan program for flood

proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75

Develop special district assessment on

properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48

Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance

public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35

Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based

on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08

Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly

water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain

improvements)

31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75

Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½

cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50

Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1

MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%

Not

%

Somewhat

%

Moderately

%

Highly

%

Totally

Mean

Score

Create low-interest loan program for flood

proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75

Develop special district assessment on

properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48

Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance

public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35

Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based

on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08

Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly

water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain

improvements)

31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75

Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½

cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50

Public Finance - Broward Workshop 1

MechanismsAcceptability Scale 1-5 (n=48)%

Not

%

Somewhat

%

Moderately

%

Highly

%

Totally

Mean

Score

Create low-interest loan program for flood

proofing and elevating residences4.2 10.4 20.8 35.4 29.1 3.75

Develop special district assessment on

properties in areas designated highly vulnerable10.4 12.5 29.2 18.8 29.2 3.48

Issue a bond (long-term borrowing) to finance

public infrastructure improvements8.3 25.0 20.8 14.6 31.3 3.35

Create a new county-wide resiliency fund based

on property taxes18.8 12.5 31.3 16.7 20.8 3.08

Add a flood resiliency surcharge on monthly

water utility bill (ex: specific to storm water drain

improvements)

31.2 20.8 10.4 16.7 20.8 2.75

Raise local sales tax slightly (options in FL are ½

cent or 1 cent per dollar)33.3 22.9 18.8 10.4 14.6 2.50

More

Acceptable

Less

Acceptable

US UK BR

Special district assessment Special district assessment Special district assessment

Low-interest loans for flood

proofing/elevationTown-wide defense fund Issue bonds

Issue bonds Public-private partnershipLow-interest loans for flood

proofing/elevation

County-wide resilience fund

based on property taxes

Low-interest loans for flood

proofing

County-wide resilience

fund based on property

taxes

Surcharge on water bill

Raise sales tax

Issue bonds

Surcharge on water bill

Raise sales tax

(Returning Participants)

All Countries Post-Workshop 2Finance Mechanism Acceptability

Finance Mechanism Acceptability by Political Affiliation (U.S.)Consensus: Higher ratings for targeted fees, lower ratings for community-

wide mechanisms (e.g. sales tax, utility surcharge)

• Low Interest Loans and Long-Term Bonds rated #1 and #2, respectively,

by Republicans, Democrats and Independents

• Special District Assessments: Tied #1 for Independents, ranked #3 for

Democrats

However – mechanism scores vary by party:

• Democrats 2.8 to 4.2

• Independents 2.3 to 3.6

• Republicans 2.2 to 3.2

Finance by Gender and Age (U.S.)

Interesting findings

• More age 65+ chose TOTALLY acceptable

than expected

• More women (21-34, 35-54, 65+) rated all

mechanisms TOTALLY acceptable, than

men in same age groups

• Age group 55-64 was different

• More men chose TOTALLY for all mechanisms

• More women chose NOT

Specific Mechanisms

Two notable differences

• Sales tax

• More men in 21-34, 35-54, 65+ rated NOT acceptable

• 52% men v. 12% of women chose NOT acceptable

• Again – 55-64 group is different: 60% women and 0% men chose NOT

acceptable

• Property tax

• All ages – twice as many women rated NOT acceptable than men (26%

v. 12% men)

Broward Referendum Question

“If a referendum was put on 2016 ballot to create a Community

Resiliency Bond (a long-term loan) that would generate $100

million by 2036 to support multiple adaptation projects, how likely

would you be to vote for it?”

• 48% “Would Vote for It”

• 21% “Very Likely”

• 8% “Moderately Likely” and 13% “Somewhat Likely”

• 10 % “Would Not Vote for It”

What Does this Mean for Local Government –Planning, Engagement and Communications

Discretionary Sales Tax for Infrastructure Referenda in Florida(Reviewed Public Land Trust report, Florida Department of Revenue History of Local Sales Tax and Current Rates report, Jan. 2017)

• 24 of 67 counties have half-penny or 1 cent sales tax for infrastructure.

• Median term is 10 years (3-15 year range.)

• Six counties (Indian River, Lake, Marion, Putnam, Santa Rosa and Wakulla) were re-approved in 2016 – extended 3, 5,10 and 15 years.

• Brevard and Palm Beach counties' citizens approved NEW half-penny and 1 cent infrastructure tax for 10 years.

Study Highlights

When it comes to adaptation, people in coastal communities want

• government to plan/take action – now / 10 years

• nature-based solutions, green technologies and policies to avoid more risk and costs in vulnerable areas

• major infrastructure / engineering solutions – when necessary

• costs, taxes and fees that are FAIR (i.e. specific to risk & user) are more acceptable than “general fees”

Ex: Post Workshop 2, Selsey priority sea wall increased

Workshops increased awareness of local risks, future conditions and financial

needs and policy limits/need for change

Inspired community and civic action in Brazil and UK – because it was new

Other Study Outcomes

Insights for Planning• Timeframes – influenced by roles, social norms and cognitive factors –

inability to visualize future beyond 10-15 years, "future discounting."

• Fairness – risk, use, benefits and “who pays” – inherent human concern.

• Nature-based, green technology and land-use policies appeal to

everyone – co-benefits and resonate with different values.

• Programs to support “common sense” engineering and finance policies.

Empower (or require) individuals and businesses to implement improvements

and link benefits and financial responsibility.

• Big infrastructure – Uncertainty about scale, incomplete risks/costs, and

concerns about quality of life.

Planning & Engagement Outreach

Communications needs

• Education about financial tools and needs.

• Adaption solutions and length of effectiveness.

• Perceptions of fairness and define social & economic benefits of

improvements of general fees.

• Everything in context of timeframes -- 3, 5 and 10 years

• Create good visuals to show

• Prospective impacts, improvements and future positive outcomes

• Budgets, budget gaps and future investments

• Use digital tools and social media to communicate and engage

Engage your Community – especially Millennials

• 79 million in the US, (18-33 in 2017)

• 34% bachelor’s or advanced degree

• Want to co-create and collaborate

• Dominant in social media, but seek experiences

• Receptive to cultural and social change

Thank you

cjreynolds@usf.edu

hrtorres@mail.usf.edu

METROPOLE Researchers Jack Kartez, Sam Merrill

Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanisms: New Frontiers For Familiar Tools,

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

http://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol3/iss2/4/

METROPOLE Project Site

http://metropole.marine.usf.edu/