Impact Of Ocean Observations on Hurricane Irene Intensity Forecasts

IMPACT OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS ON HURRICANE IRENE INTENSITY FORECASTS

S. Glenn, O. Schofield, J. Kohut, H. Roarty, J. Kerfoot, M. Oliver, H. Seim, G. Seroka,

L. Palamara, L. Bowers, R. Dunk, M. Crowley,

W. Boicourt, W. Brown, L. Atkinson

Total inches of rainfall

0 32

Aug 20-29

•  First tropical storm to threaten New York City since Hurricane Gloria in 1985

•  Flooding records broken in 26 rivers •  Caused at least 56 deaths •  Damage nearly $8 billion

Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Irene in the News: •  Track accurately forecast days in advance. •  Intensity was over-predicted.

U..

Cape  Cod  

Cape  Ha)eras  

NJ  

MA  CT  

VA  

DE  

NY  

NC  

RI  

MD  

PA  10  States  

MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSOCIATION COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM

1000  km    Cape  to  Cape  

Gliders   Forecasts  L-­‐Band   X-­‐Band  CODAR  

Regional Association – 2004

Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System – 2007

39.5N 73W Surface Current Time Series Total Current Near-Inertial Current

Wave & Wind Direction Time Series

Hurricane Irene

Eye Passes over NJ mid-day on Aug 28

39.5N 73W Surface Current Time Series Total Current Near-Inertial Current

Wave & Wind Direction Time Series

Hurricane Irene

Eye Passes over NJ mid-day on Aug 28

Hurricane Irene Surface Current Wavelet Analysis

Direct Wind Forcing Inertial Response

Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sep 01 Frontside Eye Backside Inertial Inertial Inertial

Operational Global SST Products

Real-Time Global (RTG) Smooth Data in Space

Short Term Prediction Research & Transition Center (SPoRT) Smooth Data in Time

MARACOOS  SST  Product  for  Offshore  Wind  

MARACOOSRegional SST = Coldest Dark Pixel Composite of Local AVHRR + SPoRT + RTG

Real Time Global SST Regional

Coldest Pixel SST

SST Difference

Global SST

Regional SST

Post-Hurricane Irene Sea Surface Temperatures

But when did the 6C - 8C Cooling occur?

Two Gliders Deployed by MARACOOS

in Hurricane Irene

RU16 •  Deployed for EPA. •  Map bottom dissolved oxygen. •  Provided data on mixing during storm.

RU23 •  Deployed for MARACOOS. •  Map subsurface T/S structure for fisheries. •  Damaged early - drifter •  Recovered by fisherman •  Provided data on inertial currents during storm.

14 33

29

105

60

salinity

% oxygen

temperature 55

55

0

0

55

dept

h de

pth

dept

h

8/12 9/07 date

26 0 Hurricane Irene Hurricane Irene

Temp. Vert. Vel. Temp. Vert. Vel. Temp. Vert. Vel.

RU16 Temp. Section

Upcast Downcast

For Each 2-hour Segment: 1) Calculate the Average Temperature Profile 2) Calculate the Vertical Velocity Standard Deviation Profile and Smooth Vertically.

Pre-Irene During Irene Post-Irene

Temp S.D. w’

Time History of Mixing During Irene: Profiles of the Standard Deviation Vertical Velocity Profile

Time Progresses from Red to Blue

Eddy viscosity

Linear

Linear * Exponential Decay

Hurricane Irene Currents: Glider Depth Average, CODAR Surface Layer and Calculated Bottom Layer

Glider RU16

Thermocline Depth

Surface Temp

Max S.D. w’

Max S.D. w’ Depth

Glider, CODAR & Calculated Bottom Currents

NDBC Waves Bottom Orbital Velocity

NDBC Winds

MARACOOS Network Observations: Hurricane Irene

35

45

55

65

75

85 W

ind

Spee

d (k

ts)

Date

Maximum Sustained Wind Speed (10m)

NHC Best Track

NHC Forecast

RU-WRF Atmospheric Forecast Model

NHC  Best  Track  

Even  coupled  models  (e.g.  HWRF)  overpredicted  Irene

Hurricane Irene SST Sensitivity Hindcast

Maximum Wind Speed Skill Score

Official Forecast

Warm SST Hindcast

Warm SST + OML Model

Hindcast

Cold SST Hindcast

RMS Error (knots) 9.43 7.13 7.09 3.61

Global Warm SST Regional Cold SST

Wind Speed Error Date/Time  (UTC)    

NHC  Forecast    

Warm  (RTG    only)    

Warm  (RTG  only,  OML  Model)  

Cold  “Update”  (AVHRR)    

27/1200   5   -­‐17.22   -­‐17.23   -­‐6.17  27/1800   10   4.1   4.2   5.88  28/0000   10   1.39   -­‐2.14   3.96  28/0600   5   -­‐1.2   -­‐1.04   -­‐1.21  28/1200   15   2.39   4.79   0.5  28/1800   15   4.97   3.51   -­‐2.67  29/0000   15   3.62   1.93   -­‐0.89  29/0600   10   10.48   9.84   4.52  

Sum  of  Squares   800   457   452   118  RMSE   9.43   7.13   7.09   3.61  

Hurricane Irene Conclusions: •  U.S. IOOS interactive observatory network closes a gap in storm science.

•  Surface layer cooling and deepening occurs rapidly when potential for mixing between surface and bottom boundary layers is greatest.

•  Cooler sea surface temperatures reduce hurricane forecast intensities.

•  U.S. IOOS is helping (HFIP) produce better hurricane forecasts now.

Hurricane Irene demonstrates the value of U.S. IOOS as designed: •  A multi-agency supported NOPP-style partnership activity. •  Make Observations > Advance the Science > Improve the Forecasts. •  Support societal needs.