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ILO training 8 December
Introduction to Climate Change, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and the
Climate Change negotiations
Ivo BesselinkUNDP Asia-Pacific Resource Centre
BangkokIvo.besselink@undp.org
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Contents
Green jobs in the context of climate change:
• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations
3
Contents
Green jobs in the context of climate change:
• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations
4
Emission of Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gases (GHG):• CO2 (carbon dioxide)• CH4 (methane)• N2O (Nitrous oxide)• Etc.
CO2
CH4
CO2
CO2
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CO2 concentration scenarios
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The Greenhouse Effect
N2O
CH4
CO2
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Global Warming
Rise in temperature
• Global average temperatures already increased by 0,7°C• Predictions that the global temperature will rise by about 1.4 to 5.8°C by the year 2100
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Climate Change and some of its effects
Droughts
Storms
Decline of winter
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Reading the Signs
.
� Global mean temperature has increased 0.74 oC during 1906-2005 and projected to be 1.8 to 5.4 oC by 2100;
� Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since 1961 and 3.1 mm/year since 1993. Likely to rise one metre by next century but with 5 or 10 times that in the following centuries;
� Glacier in tropical and temperate is retreating fast – Gangotri has retreated more than 76 metres from 1996 to 1999
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Pictures of the Netherlands nowadays
Land and houses lower than sea level, protected by dikes
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Picture of the Netherlands in the future?
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Projected changes (%) in run-off, 21st century.
White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree
(IPCC SYR)
Key impacts stem from reduced water availability.
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Impacts by sector (IPCC WGII TS 2007)
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Contents
Green jobs in the context of climate change:
• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations
15
A bit of History
Rio Earth Summit (1992)
Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD)
United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD)
United Nations Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Parties to the biodiversity treaty undertake to conserve species, transfer technology, and share in a fair way the benefits arising from the commercial use of genetic resources
Parties to the desertification agreement carry out national, sub-regional, and regional action programmes and seek to address causes of land degradation ranging from international trade patterns to unsustainable land management.
The Convention has the goal of preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system.
Join Liaison Group (JLG) (2001)
‘Synergies’
Secretariat (Montreal)
Secretariat (Bonn)
Secretariat (Bonn)
Montreal Protocol under Vienna Convention for the Protection of
the Ozone Layer?
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Convention objective:
Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system
• Allow ecosystems toadapt naturallyto climate change;
• Ensure food production is not threatened; and
• Enable economic development toproceed sustainably
within timeframe sufficient to
No hard, binding targets: “encouragement of industrialized countries to reduce GHG emissions”
UNFCCC ratified by 194 Parties: including Thailand, USA, etc.
UNFCCC (1992)
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“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs)
• Adopt policiesand measures withaim of reducing GHGemissions to 1990 levels
• EITs have “flexibility”in commitments
Annex I
Industrialised countries
• Provide financialresources to enabledeveloping countries tomeet the costs ofimplementing measures
• Promote technology transfer to EITs andnon-Annex I Parties
Annex II
Developing countries
• No quantitative obligations
• Least Developed Countries given special consideration
Non-Annex I
E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc.EIT: Romania, Latvia, etc.
E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc.
E.g. India, China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, etc.
Three groups under Convention/KP
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UNFCCC bodies
United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992)
Conference of the Parties (COP)
-prime authority of the Convention •association of all member countries (“Parties")•meets annually for a period of two weeks•evaluates the status of climate change and the effectiveness of the treaty•examines the activities of member countries (national communications and emissions inventories)•considers new scientific findings•tries to capitalize on experience as efforts to address climate change
-prime authority of the Convention
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological
Advice (SBSTA)
Subsidiary Body for Implementation
(SBI)
-counsels the COP on matters of climate, environment, technology, and method. - Meets twice a year
-helps review how Convention is being applied, e.g. analyzing the national communications. -deals with financial and administrative matters (also GEF). -meets twice a year.
Consultative Group of Experts on
National Communications
from “non-Annex I Parties” (CGE)
-helps developing countries prepare national reports on climate change issues
Least Developed Country Expert Group (LEG)
Expert Group on Technology
Transfer (EGTT)
- Advises LDCs on establishing programmes for adapting to cc
-seeks to spur the sharing of technology with less-advanced nations
Sec.
Sec.
Sec.Sec.
Sec.
Sec.
Bureau of the COP
-process management
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Other Stakeholders
-UNFCCC Secretariat (Sec.) staffed by international civil servants supports the Convention and its supporting bodies. It makes practical arrangements for meetings, compiles and distributes statistics and information, and assists member countries in meeting their commitments under the Convention.
Partner agencies:-Global Environment Facility (GEF): which has existed since 1991 to fund projects in developing countries that will have global environmental benefits. The job of channeling grants and loans to poor countries to help them address climate change, as called for by the Convention, has been delegated to the GEF because of its established expertise.
-Observers: groups and agencies allowed to attend and even speak at international meetings, but not to participate in decision-making. E.g. intergovernmental agencies (UNDP, ILO, OPEC) (>50), non-government agencies (business interests, academic and research institutes, WWF, Oxfam, etc.) (>600) .
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IPCC
� the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ): provides services to the Convention, although it is not part of it, through publishing comprehensive reviews every five years of the status of climate change and climate-change science, along with special reports and technical papers on request.
� Established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988
� The leading scientific body for assessment of climate change
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UNFCCC bodiesUnited Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992)
Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol (CMP)
-prime authority of the Protocol
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA)
Subsidiary Body for Implementation
(SBI)
Sec.
Sec.Sec.
Kyoto Protocol (1997)
And….. 3 more!-CDM Executive Board- Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee
(JISC)-Compliance
Committee (CC)Sec.
KP ratified by 192 Parties: including Thailand, but not USA (!)
Bureau of the CMP
First ‘baby’ of UNFCCC
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1990, 1992: FAR0.3 oC ↑
1995: SAR
2001: TAR1.4-5.8oC ↑
2007: AR41.1-6.4oC ↑
2014: AR5
1992: Framework Convention on CCnegotiated
1994: Convention enters into force
1997: Kyoto Protocol negotiated
2001: Marrakesh Accords* Kyoto Protocol “rules”* Adaptation on table
2005: Kyoto Protocol enters into forceKP Working Group established
2007: Bali Road Map
2009: COP-15 Copenhagen
2010 today: COP -16 in Cancun
Science (IPCC) Politics (UNFCCC Conference of Parties)
2323
Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate change impacts
Global Climate Change
Mitigation : reduce emissions, reduce magnitude of CC(e.g.less CO2)
Adaptationreduce vulnerability to CC impacts; reduce losses
What are we talking about?
Mitigation:Carbon sinks : forests and land use changes (CO2 sequestration)
linkages
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GH
G E
mis
sio
ns
t/y f
or
Dev
elo
ped
Co
un
try
19
90
20
12
20
08
GHG Emissions or “BUSINESS
AS USUAL” Average
reduction:
1990 levels
-5.2 %
Year
Kyoto Protocol
Binding GHG emission targets for Annex I Parties (37 industrialized countries & economies in transition) for 6 gases
Countries which accepted commitments, expressed as allowed emissions or assigned amount units (AAUs)
Trading of units: ‘carbon markets’First Commitment
period
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Commitments
Why? commitment to limit GHG emissioncommitment to limit GHG emission
Who?
GHG?
How much?
37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries)
37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries)
6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6
6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6
5.2% below 1990 level of emission5.2% below 1990 level of emission
When? 2008-20122008-2012
Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and
waste
Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and
wasteSectors?
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Kyoto Protocol
• Under the KP, Annex I countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.
– EU at least 80% national measures– Japan no limit
Energy saving
Etc.
CH4
Methane capture
Carbon sequestration
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3 market based mechanisms
• To assist in reaching the objectives of KP, three market based mechanisms created, Parties can use:• Emission Trading (ET) => trading of allowances (AAUs) between
developed countries• Joint Implementation (JI) => project based, developed c. invests in
project in another developed c. and receives credits (ERUs)• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) => project based, CDM credits
generated from emission reduction projects or from afforestation/ reforestation projects in developing country. Acquisition by developed c. (Certified Emission Reduction, CERs)
• Taking advantage of difference in marginal abatement costs across different emission sources
• “Emissions don’t need a visa to travel”
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Why Clean Development Mechanism?
• Most cost effective measures for the abatement of GHG emissions: cheapest place to do so
• E.g. With $ 1.000 you can reduce 10 ton CO 2 in UK
• But with $ 1.000 you can reduce 100 ton CO 2 in Nepal
CO2
CO2
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Flexible mechanisms KP
30
95
AAU 2008 - 2012
140
ET
JI
CDM
100
t C2
1990
Emission Reduction Accounting
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CDM Flows
Developed country
(Annex I)
Developing country
(Non-Annex I)
Flow $$and clean technologies
Flow of emission reductions
Projects reducing GHG emissions
CH4
Accounting of ER => approved methodologies
To validate projects => accredited audit companies (DOEs)
To verify emission reductions => accredited DOEs
To approve projects => check by experts (RIT)
To approve issuance => check by experts (RIT)
Designated National Authority
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Adaptation
• Financial support for adaptation:– Bilaterals– Adaptation fund (AF)– Special Climate Change Fund (GEF)– Least Developed Countries Fund (GEF)
• Various projects underway to reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to climate change
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Contents
Green jobs in the context of climate change:
• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations
34
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon:
• We have read the science. Global warming is real and we are a prime cause. We have heard the warnings. Unless we act now, we face serious consequences.
• Largely lost in the debate is the good news. We can do something – more easily and at far less cost than most of us imagine (if wait too long, costs 20% of GDP)
• Climate change will have a more immediate effect on many of the poorest people in the world, including those least able to recover from climate stresses like droughts, floods and changing conditions for crops and livestock
• Climate change will exacerbate existing economic, political and humanitarian stresses
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Reductions
- To stabilize GHG concentrations in atmosphere and prevent catastrophic climate change (UNDP HD report 2007/2008):
- 50% reductions in GHG emissions by 2050 based on 1990 levels
- Developed countries, 80% reductions in 2050- Developing countries, 20% reduction in 2050
- Those most at risk from climate change live in countries that have contributed the least to the atmospheric build-up of CO2 and other GHG. But these most affected are also the least able to cope.
- Both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to help solve this problem.
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The Road to Copenhagen/Cancun/………
Convention “track” Kyoto Protocol “track”
COP CMP
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Status of the negotiations?
Progress in 2010
• Parties continue on draft texts from 2009• Elements of the Copenhagen Accord have been incorporated, but text
remains heavily bracketed• Overarching political disagreement on mitigation pledges continues• Recognition that Cancun will not produce a comprehensive, complete deal• Negotiations increasingly seen as an iterative process, with an evolving
institutional framework
Focus for Cancun
• Deliver a package of COP decisions (not legally-binding) to capture progress and begin process of setting up new mechanisms
• Finance, technology, REDD+ and adaptation all focus areas for progress. • Fast Start Finance, GF, and Interim REDD+ Partnership all feed in
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From Tianjin to Cancun
General consensus on• New Fund• Technology Mechanism• Adaptation Framework• REDD+ Interim Partnership
Disagreement on• Developing countries mitigation
actions, and the measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) of them
• Developed country targets and Kyoto Protocol second commitment period
Disagreement on MRV threatens US, Japan, Russia, Australia blocking of the package
What’s in the package of decisions?
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Finance
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Finance (existing)
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Finance (new)?
42
Keystone Issues for Finance
Major Points to Note:
• Funding will be less and less project-based• Transition to national planning and strategies as guiding documents for
programmatic fund disbursement (e.g. NAMAs)
• Direct Access a major feature• Multilateral system increasingly asked to provide facilities, mechanisms,
and technical assistance, rather than project implementation
• Donors agree that the majority future funding will flow via the new fund, but that it will not be a silver bullet
• National coordination therefore becomes essential for governments to access, coordinate, sequence and combine climate finance
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