ILO intro CC IBE · 2014. 6. 9. · Title: ILO intro CC_IBE Author: chet Created Date: 12/15/2010 8:40:04 AM

ILO training 8 December

Introduction to Climate Change, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and the

Climate Change negotiations

Ivo BesselinkUNDP Asia-Pacific Resource Centre

[email protected]

2

Contents

Green jobs in the context of climate change:

• Introduction in Climate Change

• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM

• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations

3

Contents





4

Emission of Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse Gases (GHG):• CO2 (carbon dioxide)• CH4 (methane)• N2O (Nitrous oxide)• Etc.

CO2

CH4

CO2

CO2

5

CO2 concentration scenarios

6

The Greenhouse Effect

N2O

CH4

CO2

7

Global Warming

Rise in temperature

• Global average temperatures already increased by 0,7°C• Predictions that the global temperature will rise by about 1.4 to 5.8°C by the year 2100

8

Climate Change and some of its effects

Droughts

Storms

Decline of winter

9

Reading the Signs

.

� Global mean temperature has increased 0.74 oC during 1906-2005 and projected to be 1.8 to 5.4 oC by 2100;

� Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since 1961 and 3.1 mm/year since 1993. Likely to rise one metre by next century but with 5 or 10 times that in the following centuries;

� Glacier in tropical and temperate is retreating fast – Gangotri has retreated more than 76 metres from 1996 to 1999

10

Pictures of the Netherlands nowadays

Land and houses lower than sea level, protected by dikes

11

Picture of the Netherlands in the future?

12

Projected changes (%) in run-off, 21st century.

White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree

(IPCC SYR)

Key impacts stem from reduced water availability.

13

Impacts by sector (IPCC WGII TS 2007)

14

Contents





15

A bit of History

Rio Earth Summit (1992)

Convention on Biological Diversity

(CBD)

United Nations Convention to Combat

Desertification (UNCCD)

United Nations Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC)

Parties to the biodiversity treaty undertake to conserve species, transfer technology, and share in a fair way the benefits arising from the commercial use of genetic resources

Parties to the desertification agreement carry out national, sub-regional, and regional action programmes and seek to address causes of land degradation ranging from international trade patterns to unsustainable land management.

The Convention has the goal of preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system.

Join Liaison Group (JLG) (2001)

‘Synergies’

Secretariat (Montreal)

Secretariat (Bonn)

Secretariat (Bonn)

Montreal Protocol under Vienna Convention for the Protection of

the Ozone Layer?

16

Convention objective:

Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system

• Allow ecosystems toadapt naturallyto climate change;

• Ensure food production is not threatened; and

• Enable economic development toproceed sustainably

within timeframe sufficient to

No hard, binding targets: “encouragement of industrialized countries to reduce GHG emissions”

UNFCCC ratified by 194 Parties: including Thailand, USA, etc.

UNFCCC (1992)

17

“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”

Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs)

• Adopt policiesand measures withaim of reducing GHGemissions to 1990 levels

• EITs have “flexibility”in commitments

Annex I

Industrialised countries

• Provide financialresources to enabledeveloping countries tomeet the costs ofimplementing measures

• Promote technology transfer to EITs andnon-Annex I Parties

Annex II

Developing countries

• No quantitative obligations

• Least Developed Countries given special consideration

Non-Annex I

E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc.EIT: Romania, Latvia, etc.

E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc.

E.g. India, China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, etc.

Three groups under Convention/KP

18

UNFCCC bodies

United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992)

Conference of the Parties (COP)

-prime authority of the Convention •association of all member countries (“Parties")•meets annually for a period of two weeks•evaluates the status of climate change and the effectiveness of the treaty•examines the activities of member countries (national communications and emissions inventories)•considers new scientific findings•tries to capitalize on experience as efforts to address climate change

-prime authority of the Convention

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological

Advice (SBSTA)

Subsidiary Body for Implementation

(SBI)

-counsels the COP on matters of climate, environment, technology, and method. - Meets twice a year

-helps review how Convention is being applied, e.g. analyzing the national communications. -deals with financial and administrative matters (also GEF). -meets twice a year.

Consultative Group of Experts on

National Communications

from “non-Annex I Parties” (CGE)

-helps developing countries prepare national reports on climate change issues

Least Developed Country Expert Group (LEG)

Expert Group on Technology

Transfer (EGTT)

- Advises LDCs on establishing programmes for adapting to cc

-seeks to spur the sharing of technology with less-advanced nations

Sec.

Sec.

Sec.Sec.

Sec.

Sec.

Bureau of the COP

-process management

19

Other Stakeholders

-UNFCCC Secretariat (Sec.) staffed by international civil servants supports the Convention and its supporting bodies. It makes practical arrangements for meetings, compiles and distributes statistics and information, and assists member countries in meeting their commitments under the Convention.

Partner agencies:-Global Environment Facility (GEF): which has existed since 1991 to fund projects in developing countries that will have global environmental benefits. The job of channeling grants and loans to poor countries to help them address climate change, as called for by the Convention, has been delegated to the GEF because of its established expertise.

-Observers: groups and agencies allowed to attend and even speak at international meetings, but not to participate in decision-making. E.g. intergovernmental agencies (UNDP, ILO, OPEC) (>50), non-government agencies (business interests, academic and research institutes, WWF, Oxfam, etc.) (>600) .

20

IPCC

� the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ): provides services to the Convention, although it is not part of it, through publishing comprehensive reviews every five years of the status of climate change and climate-change science, along with special reports and technical papers on request.

� Established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988

� The leading scientific body for assessment of climate change

21

UNFCCC bodiesUnited Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992)

Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto

Protocol (CMP)

-prime authority of the Protocol

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and

Technological Advice (SBSTA)

Subsidiary Body for Implementation

(SBI)

Sec.

Sec.Sec.

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

And….. 3 more!-CDM Executive Board- Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee

(JISC)-Compliance

Committee (CC)Sec.

KP ratified by 192 Parties: including Thailand, but not USA (!)

Bureau of the CMP

First ‘baby’ of UNFCCC

22

1990, 1992: FAR0.3 oC ↑

1995: SAR

2001: TAR1.4-5.8oC ↑

2007: AR41.1-6.4oC ↑

2014: AR5

1992: Framework Convention on CCnegotiated

1994: Convention enters into force

1997: Kyoto Protocol negotiated

2001: Marrakesh Accords* Kyoto Protocol “rules”* Adaptation on table

2005: Kyoto Protocol enters into forceKP Working Group established

2007: Bali Road Map

2009: COP-15 Copenhagen

2010 today: COP -16 in Cancun

Science (IPCC) Politics (UNFCCC Conference of Parties)

2323

Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change impacts

Global Climate Change

Mitigation : reduce emissions, reduce magnitude of CC(e.g.less CO2)

Adaptationreduce vulnerability to CC impacts; reduce losses

What are we talking about?

Mitigation:Carbon sinks : forests and land use changes (CO2 sequestration)

linkages

24

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

t/y f

or

Dev

elo

ped

Co

un

try

19

90

20

12

20

08

GHG Emissions or “BUSINESS

AS USUAL” Average

reduction:

1990 levels

-5.2 %

Year

Kyoto Protocol

Binding GHG emission targets for Annex I Parties (37 industrialized countries & economies in transition) for 6 gases

Countries which accepted commitments, expressed as allowed emissions or assigned amount units (AAUs)

Trading of units: ‘carbon markets’First Commitment

period

25

Commitments

Why? commitment to limit GHG emissioncommitment to limit GHG emission

Who?

GHG?

How much?

37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries)

37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries)

6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

5.2% below 1990 level of emission5.2% below 1990 level of emission

When? 2008-20122008-2012

Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and

waste

Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and

wasteSectors?

26

Kyoto Protocol

• Under the KP, Annex I countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.

– EU at least 80% national measures– Japan no limit

Energy saving

Etc.

CH4

Methane capture

Carbon sequestration

27

3 market based mechanisms

• To assist in reaching the objectives of KP, three market based mechanisms created, Parties can use:• Emission Trading (ET) => trading of allowances (AAUs) between

developed countries• Joint Implementation (JI) => project based, developed c. invests in

project in another developed c. and receives credits (ERUs)• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) => project based, CDM credits

generated from emission reduction projects or from afforestation/ reforestation projects in developing country. Acquisition by developed c. (Certified Emission Reduction, CERs)

• Taking advantage of difference in marginal abatement costs across different emission sources

• “Emissions don’t need a visa to travel”

28

Why Clean Development Mechanism?

• Most cost effective measures for the abatement of GHG emissions: cheapest place to do so

• E.g. With $ 1.000 you can reduce 10 ton CO 2 in UK

• But with $ 1.000 you can reduce 100 ton CO 2 in Nepal

CO2

CO2

29

Flexible mechanisms KP

30

95

AAU 2008 - 2012

140

ET

JI

CDM

100

t C2

1990

Emission Reduction Accounting

31

CDM Flows

Developed country

(Annex I)

Developing country

(Non-Annex I)

Flow $$and clean technologies

Flow of emission reductions

Projects reducing GHG emissions

CH4

Accounting of ER => approved methodologies

To validate projects => accredited audit companies (DOEs)

To verify emission reductions => accredited DOEs

To approve projects => check by experts (RIT)

To approve issuance => check by experts (RIT)

Designated National Authority

32

Adaptation

• Financial support for adaptation:– Bilaterals– Adaptation fund (AF)– Special Climate Change Fund (GEF)– Least Developed Countries Fund (GEF)

• Various projects underway to reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to climate change

33

Contents





34

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon:

• We have read the science. Global warming is real and we are a prime cause. We have heard the warnings. Unless we act now, we face serious consequences.

• Largely lost in the debate is the good news. We can do something – more easily and at far less cost than most of us imagine (if wait too long, costs 20% of GDP)

• Climate change will have a more immediate effect on many of the poorest people in the world, including those least able to recover from climate stresses like droughts, floods and changing conditions for crops and livestock

• Climate change will exacerbate existing economic, political and humanitarian stresses

35

Reductions

- To stabilize GHG concentrations in atmosphere and prevent catastrophic climate change (UNDP HD report 2007/2008):

- 50% reductions in GHG emissions by 2050 based on 1990 levels

- Developed countries, 80% reductions in 2050- Developing countries, 20% reduction in 2050

- Those most at risk from climate change live in countries that have contributed the least to the atmospheric build-up of CO2 and other GHG. But these most affected are also the least able to cope.

- Both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to help solve this problem.

36

The Road to Copenhagen/Cancun/………

Convention “track” Kyoto Protocol “track”

COP CMP

37

Status of the negotiations?

Progress in 2010

• Parties continue on draft texts from 2009• Elements of the Copenhagen Accord have been incorporated, but text

remains heavily bracketed• Overarching political disagreement on mitigation pledges continues• Recognition that Cancun will not produce a comprehensive, complete deal• Negotiations increasingly seen as an iterative process, with an evolving

institutional framework

Focus for Cancun

• Deliver a package of COP decisions (not legally-binding) to capture progress and begin process of setting up new mechanisms

• Finance, technology, REDD+ and adaptation all focus areas for progress. • Fast Start Finance, GF, and Interim REDD+ Partnership all feed in

38

From Tianjin to Cancun

General consensus on• New Fund• Technology Mechanism• Adaptation Framework• REDD+ Interim Partnership

Disagreement on• Developing countries mitigation

actions, and the measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) of them

• Developed country targets and Kyoto Protocol second commitment period

Disagreement on MRV threatens US, Japan, Russia, Australia blocking of the package

What’s in the package of decisions?

39

Finance

40

Finance (existing)

41

Finance (new)?

42

Keystone Issues for Finance

Major Points to Note:

• Funding will be less and less project-based• Transition to national planning and strategies as guiding documents for

programmatic fund disbursement (e.g. NAMAs)

• Direct Access a major feature• Multilateral system increasingly asked to provide facilities, mechanisms,

and technical assistance, rather than project implementation

• Donors agree that the majority future funding will flow via the new fund, but that it will not be a silver bullet

• National coordination therefore becomes essential for governments to access, coordinate, sequence and combine climate finance

Documents

ILO intro CC IBE · 2014. 6. 9. · Title: ILO intro CC_IBE Author: chet Created Date: 12/15/2010 8:40:04 AM