Global Climate Change: Detection and Attribution

Global Climate Change: Detection and Attribution

Finish Idealized Global Circulation Model and Global ClimatesIs the Current Climate Changing? If so, on what evidence?Why?

For Next Class: Read Chapter 2 (pp. 66-81) and watch King CornExam I on Feb 10! Review Sheet is Posted.

2017 Peru Summer Study Abroad: Climate Change, Glaciers, and Water Resources

June 29 to July 13, 2017GHY 3140: Andean Mountain Geography (3 hrs) GHY 3530: Climate and Tropical Glaciers (3 hrs)

This 15-day intensive program introduces students to climate change impacts in the Andes through direct field experience and research activities, readings, discussions, and meetings with guest speakers. Field excursions to Machu Picchu and other locations in the Sacred Valley and a 6-day trek in the Cordillera Vilcanota (with strenuous ascents to over 17,000 ft) will provide an outstanding setting for the study of Andean human-environment interactions and the impacts of climate variability and change on tropical glaciers, ecosystems, water resources, and human populations.

Program Leader: Dr. Baker PerryInterested? Contact Dr. Perry (perrylb@appstate.edu) to apply or for more information.

Climate Change Detection

Is the Earth’s Current Climate Changing?

If so, what evidence can you provide?

(We will discuss the question of attribution in a few minutes.)

NASA GISS Surface Temperature Anomalies

Figure SPM.1bObserved change in surface temperature 1901-2012

All Figures © IPCC 2013

© AMS 24

Trends in Mean Annual Temperature

Observed Variations in the Cryosphere

Credit: Baker Perry, Appalachian State University

Laguna Glaciar, Cordillera Real, Bolivia1999 2016

Chacaltaya Glacier Disappeared in 2009

2003

2016

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6496429.stm

IPCC AR5

Indicators of Climate Change

IPCC 2013

Overview of Observed Change Indicators

IPCC 2013

Climate Change AttributionWhy is the climate changing?

What are the Anthropogenic Influences on Climate?

Greenhouse gases

Aerosols – suspended particulates

Land use/land cover change

Global Mean Energy Balance

IPCC AR4 FAQ 1.1 Figure 1

+3.0 w m-2

Relevant Natural Forcings?

Solar Irradiance

Volcanoes

Changes in Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulation

No denying that anthropogenic

warming is playing a role:

Question is how much?