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Analysis.Answers.
Analysis. Answers
Beacon Economics, LLC!
The Economic Outlook Focus on the State and Nation
April 2016
Analysis.Answers.
WordoftheDay
Miserabilism
Morrissey LouisCK WallStreet
Thephilosophyofpessimism–or–Tryingreallyhardtoconvinceeveryonethatthings
arereallybadwhen,inreality,theyaren’t.
Analysis.Answers.
TheWrongQuestion
3
Analysis.Answers.
TheRightAnswer• USEconomyS;llMovingAlong
– 2015:BeDerthanitlooked– Labormarketsstrong– Forgettheturmoil:thereisnobubble– Housings;llinrecoverymode– Creditexpandingonmanylevels– Commoditypricesaredown– Californiaisleading,notlaggingthena;on
• Issues?Sure…– StateandLocalBudgetss;llstressed– Thedrought– Globaleconomy—par;cularlyAsia– BadFinancialRegula;ons– LocalHousingshortage– Pensions/En;tlements– GrowingInequality/Poli;calGridlock
4
Analysis.Answers.
2015:Betterthatitlooks
5
2013 2014 2015 GDP 1.50 2.40 2.40 Final Demand 1.24 2.53 2.86
Consumption 1.16 1.84 2.09 Goods 0.71 0.75 0.83 Services 0.45 1.09 1.26 Investment 0.70 0.87 0.82 Structures 0.04 0.23 -0.05 Equipment 0.19 0.34 0.18 Intellectual property 0.15 0.20 0.23 Residential 0.27 0.05 0.28 Change inventories 0.06 0.05 0.18 Net exports 0.20 -0.18 -0.64 Exports 0.38 0.46 0.15 Imports -0.18 -0.63 -0.79 Government -0.58 -0.11 0.13 Federal -0.46 -0.18 -0.02 State and local -0.12 0.07 0.15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2013I II III
IV
2014I II III
IV
2015I II III
IV
2016I
Grossdomes=cproduct
Analysis.Answers.
ConsumerSpending
6
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
AnnualAutoLightTruckSales
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jul-1
3
Feb-14
Sep-14
Apr-15
Nov-15
RealConsumerSpending(Feb,Y-o-YGrowth)
Goods Services
Analysis.Answers.
EmploymentGrowth
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-12
Jul-1
2
Jan-13
Jul-1
3
Jan-14
Jul-1
4
Jan-15
Jul-1
5
Jan-16
ChangeinPayrolls
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Y-o-YGrowthRealDPI
Analysis.Answers.
ParticipationandUnemployment
8
3.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.015.0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-1
3Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-1
4Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-1
5Oct-15
Jan-16
UnemploymentRates
U6 Headline
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
68.0%
Jan-80
Feb-83
Mar-86
Apr-89
May-92
Jun-95
Jul-9
8Au
g-01
Sep-04
Oct-07
Nov-10
Dec-13
Par=cipa=onRate
Analysis.Answers.
ConsumerCredit
9
$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0$10.0$11.0$12.0$13.0$14.0
03:Q1
04:Q1
05:Q1
06:Q1
07:Q1
08:Q1
09:Q1
10:Q1
11:Q1
12:Q1
13:Q1
14:Q1
15:Q1
OutstandingConsumerCredit($Trillions)
Mortgage HERevolving AutoLoan
CreditCard StudentLoan Other
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
1980Q1
1982Q2
1984Q3
1986Q4
1989Q1
1991Q2
1993Q3
1995Q4
1998Q1
2000Q2
2002Q3
2004Q4
2007Q1
2009Q2
2011Q3
2013Q4
DebtServicingasShareDPI
FOB DSR
Analysis.Answers.
ConsumerCredit
10
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
99:Q2
01:Q2
03:Q2
05:Q2
07:Q2
09:Q2
11:Q2
13:Q2
15:Q2
CreditScoreatOrigina=on:Mortgages
Median 25thpercen;le 10thpercen;le
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
03:Q1
04:Q1
05:Q1
06:Q1
07:Q1
08:Q1
09:Q1
10:Q1
11:Q1
12:Q1
13:Q1
14:Q1
15:Q1
SeriousDelinquencyRate(90day+)
MORTGAGE HELOC AUTO CC
Analysis.Answers.
ExistingHomeSales
11
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Jan-99
Aug-00
Mar-02
Oct-03
May-05
Dec-06
Jul-0
8Feb-10
Sep-11
Apr-13
Nov-14
HomeSales2014 2015
OR-Portland 7.2% 11.8% WA-Seattle 6.8% 10.8% CA-San Francisco 7.8% 10.5% CO-Denver 8.4% 10.2% TX-Dallas 8.1% 9.2% FL-Tampa 5.7% 7.4% MI-Detroit 3.1% 7.2% CA-Los Angeles 5.5% 6.9% CA-San Diego 5.0% 6.9% FL-Miami 8.3% 6.8% AZ-Phoenix 2.5% 6.1% NV-Las Vegas 5.9% 6.0% GA-Atlanta 4.9% 5.7% National-US 4.3% 5.4%
Case-ShillerRegionalHPIs
Analysis.Answers.
AffordabilityandConstruction
12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan-01
May-02
Sep-03
Jan-05
May-06
Sep-07
Jan-09
May-10
Sep-11
Jan-13
May-14
Sep-15
HousingStartsSAAR
Single Mul;
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
USHousingAffordability
Analysis.Answers.
ImprovedOutlook
13
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
ChangeinHouseholds(2yearSmoothed)
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
Q1-97
Q2-98
Q3-99
Q4-00
Q1-02
Q2-03
Q3-04
Q4-05
Q1-07
Q2-08
Q3-09
Q4-10
Q1-12
Q2-13
Q3-14
YearRoundVacantas%ofHousingStocktoQ3(CensusHVS)
Analysis.Answers.
Production
14
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-04
Feb-05
Mar-06
Apr-07
May-08
Jun-09
Jul-1
0Au
g-11
Sep-12
Oct-13
Nov-14
Dec-15
IndustrialProduc=onIndexes
Total Manufacturing
2015 Mar.'15
Propor=on to Mar.'16
Totalindustry 100 -2
Energy 21.5 -9.6Consumerproducts 3.4 -8.6Oilandgaswelldrilling 0.4 -55.4Primaryenergy 10.8 -11.6
Non-energy 78.5 0.2Selectedhigh-technology 2.7 2.1Motorvehiclesandparts 5.9 5Consumergoods 20.9 0.3Businessequipment 9.7 -1.4Construc=onsupplies 5.1 1.5Businesssupplies 6.9 0.7Materials 25.1 -0.9
Analysis.Answers.
Trade
15
Exports Imports Bal. Total -104.4 -87.3 -17.1
Canada -28.8 -45.8 17 Netherlands -2.8 -3.9 1.1 Belgium -0.6 -1.2 0.6 India 0.3 -0.1 0.4 Germany 0.2 0.3 -0.1 Taiwan -0.5 0.1 -0.6 Japan -3.5 -2.7 -0.8 France -1.1 0.6 -1.7 UK 2.8 4.5 -1.7 Italy -0.9 1.7 -2.6 Korea, South -0.6 2.8 -3.4 Mexico -3.6 1.3 -4.9 Brazil -10 -2.3 -7.7 China -5.7 17.8 -23.5
ChangeinNominalGoodsTrade2014to2015
17001800190020002100220023002400250026002700
RealImportsandExports
Exports Imports
Analysis.Answers.
OilActivity
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Feb-96
Oct-97
Jun-99
Feb-01
Oct-02
Jun-04
Feb-06
Oct-07
Jun-09
Feb-11
Oct-12
Jun-14
RealPrice:GallonGasoline
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
Jan-2008
Sep-2008
May-2009
Jan-2010
Sep-2010
May-2011
Jan-2012
Sep-2012
May-2013
Jan-2014
Sep-2014
May-2015
Jan-2016
USMonthlyOilProduc=on
Analysis.Answers.
MiningandManufacturing:IP
17
-70.0%
-50.0%
-30.0%
-10.0%
10.0%
30.0%
50.0%
70.0%
Jan-73
Jan-76
Jan-79
Jan-82
Jan-85
Jan-88
Jan-91
Jan-94
Jan-97
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
Y-o-YChangeOilExplora=on
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
Jan
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
TotalEmploymentIndexes:2005=100
ND OK Texas Dallas Houston
Analysis.Answers.
CaliforniafactversusOiction
18
California Hype:!§ High taxes, Over regulated"§ People/business fleeing"
Reality"§ State still outperforming"§ Certain industries more vulnerable than
others, but others doing great"§ Real enemy: CEQA, dumb taxes"
“Lookingbackafewyears(2009/2010)everyonewassayingthatCAwouldfaillikeGreeceorDetroit,butthingslookdifferentnow.What
hashappenedtoturnthingsaround?”
Analysis.Answers.
RegionalGrowth
19
Analysis.Answers.
2015JobGrowth(ChGrfrom14)
20
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jan-95
Aug-96
Mar-98
Oct-99
May-01
Dec-02
Jul-0
4Feb-06
Sep-07
Apr-09
Nov-10
Jun-12
Jan-14
IndexPayrollEmployment
California BalanceUS
State Ch %GrIdaho 26.4 4.0% 1Utah 44.5 3.3% 2Oregon 55.3 3.1% 3Tennessee 89.3 3.1% 4Washington 96.5 3.1% 5Florida 243.2 3.0% 6Arizona 77.5 3.0% 7California 451.6 2.8% 8Georgia 116 2.7% 9Virginia 96.5 2.5% 10
Michigan 90.8 2.2% 17Texas 170.9 1.4% 29NewYork 130.3 1.4% 31Kansas -5.4 -0.4% 46NorthDakota -22.7 -4.9% 51
Analysis.Answers.
Whatkind?
21
Feb-16 Chg Gr.
TotalNonfarm 16,310.0 451.6 2.8%
HealthCare 2,157.3 84.6 4.1%
Accommoda;on 1,584.5 64.6 4.3%
Construc;on 760.7 53.8 7.6%
ProfSciTech 1,228.3 40.6 3.4%
RetailTrade 1,682.6 31.5 1.9%
LocalGov 1,721.8 27.4 1.6%
AdminSupport 1,065.2 22.3 2.1%
Informa;on 499.0 22 4.6%
Logis;cs 561.9 21.8 4.0%
Feb-16 Chg Gr.Educa;on 359.4 18.1 5.3%Entertainment 301.1 17.3 6.1%WholesaleTrade 731.5 17 2.4%OtherServices 551.9 11.4 2.1%StateGov 514.2 9.9 2.0%RealEstate 273.2 4.7 1.8%Management 232.4 3.9 1.7%Finance 525.4 3.5 0.7%FederalGov 245.5 2.3 0.9%DurableManu 808.2 0.8 0.1%Non-DurableMa 478.4 -3.2 -0.7%
Analysis.Answers.
GrowingInequality
22
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Inde
x(1=PerfectIn
equa
lity)
GiniIndex(Inequality)
BasedonBefore-TaxIncome BasedonAner-TaxIncome
AnerTaxesandTransfers
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
USHoldingsofWealth
Top10% EveryoneElse
Top1%own40%to50%ofallwealthintheworld
Analysis.Answers.
TheMinimumWageDebateDebacle• TheWorkingPoorProblem
– GreatRecession,taxpolicies,technologicalchange
– Californiaisworsebecauseofhousing,immigra;on
• Thereality:minimumwagesdon’thelp
– Only$1outof$4inincreasedpayrollcostsgotoneedyhouseholds
– Smallemploymenteffectsbutmainlyhitmostatriskworkers
– Increaseincostshitsthoseonfixedincomes
• TherearebeDerwaystohandle– Modeststatelevelruleswithexplicit
exemp;ons/regionalvariances– BeDeryet-EITC,Pre-K,housingsupports—but
thesecostmoney
MedianRentPaid
MedianFull-TimeHourly
Earnings SantaClara $1,787 $34.40 SanFrancisco $1,587 $34.10 SanMateo $1,793 $29.70 ContraCosta $1,443 $29.50 Alameda $1,391 $27.30 Orange $1,572 $23.60 SanDiego $1,373 $23.30 Sonoma $1,374 $23.20 Sacramento $1,017 $20.10 LosAngeles $1,239 $19.00 SanBernardino $1,125 $18.90 Riverside $1,196 $18.60 SantaBarbara $1,395 $18.40 Kern $870 $17.20 Monterey $1,233 $15.60 Fresno $891 $15.60 Tulare $829 $15.10
Analysis.Answers.
What?Where?
24
Feb-16 Ch # UnRt Ch
California 16,3102.8%
451.6 5.5%-1.2%
SanFrancisco 1,0764.0% 41.4 3.1%-0.6%
SantaCruz 1003.8% 3.7 7.1%-0.9%
Stockton 2233.8% 8.1 8.1%-1.2%
Salinas 1353.7% 4.8 7.7%-0.8%
SanJose 1,0633.6% 37.4 3.8%-0.7%
Vallejo 1353.4% 4.4 5.4%-1.1%
InlandEmpire 1,3703.3% 44.1 5.8%-1.2%
Modesto 1693.2% 5.2 8.6%-1.4%
Visalia 1203.0% 3.5 10.9%-1.1%
Sacramento 9292.8% 25.3 5.2%-1.0%
Feb-16 Ch # UnRt Ch
SanDiego 1,407 2.8% 37.8 4.6% -0.9%
SLO 116 2.7% 3.1 4.2% -0.7%
Fresno 328 2.7% 8.6 9.4% -1.2%
EastBay 1,111 2.7% 29.0 4.3% -0.8%
SantaRosa 200 2.7% 5.2 4.0% -0.8%
OrangeCnty 1,565 2.7% 40.6 4.0% -0.8%
LosAngeles 4,338 2.4%100.4 5.6% -2.2%
SantaBarbara 183 2.3% 4.1 5.0% -0.5%
Chico 78 1.8% 1.4 6.7% -0.8%
Bakersfield 261 1.2% 3.0 9.8% -0.3%
Ventura 297 1.0% 3.0 5.1% -0.8%
Analysis.Answers.
L.A.CountyIndustries
25
Industry Feb-16(000s) YoYChg(%)TotalNonfarm 4,338.1 2.4TotalPrivate 3,767.7 2.5Construc;on 129.1 4.9Educa;on/Health 767.5 4.8Informa;on 211.4 4.4LeisureandHospitality 499.5 4.0RealEstate 81.6 3.6Transport,Warehouse,U;l. 171.8 3.6ProfSciandTech 283.5 3.5NR/Mining 3.7 2.9Management 59.8 2.6RetailTrade 426.3 1.7OtherServices 152.8 1.4Government 570.4 1.3FinanceandInsurance 135.1 0.7AdminSupport 265.5 0.7WholesaleTrade 226.1 0.3Farm 4.9 -0.5Manufacturing 354.2 -2.4
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
AverageAnnualWages
LosAngeles California
Analysis.Answers.
StateOutput:Q314toQ315US CA Diff
All industry total 2.0% 3.5% 1.4%
Agriculture 11.1% 25.5% 14.5% Professional 4.6% 9.0% 4.4% Construction 6.0% 9.9% 3.9% Wholesale 0.9% 4.0% 3.1% Management 3.7% 6.5% 2.8% Accommodation 1.2% 3.5% 2.3% Information 6.6% 8.8% 2.3% Administrative 4.3% 5.9% 1.7% Real estate 1.5% 2.7% 1.2% Retail trade 3.9% 5.1% 1.2% Health care 3.6% 4.4% 0.8% Transportation -2.3% -1.7% 0.6%
Other services 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% Government -0.2% -0.7% -0.5% Durable goods 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% Finance -1.1% -2.7% -1.6% Nondurable goods 3.0% 0.0% -3.1%
95
100
105
110
115
120
2005Q1
2006Q2
2007Q3
2008Q4
2010Q1
2011Q2
2012Q3
2013Q4
2015Q1
OutputIndexes
UnitedStates California
Analysis.Answers.
PublicSector
27
1,850,000
1,900,000
1,950,000
2,000,000
2,050,000
2,100,000
2,150,000
2,200,000
2,250,000
2,300,000
Jan-00
Sep-01
May-03
Jan-05
Sep-06
May-08
Jan-10
Sep-11
May-13
Jan-15
StateandLocalEmployment
240000
245000
250000
255000
260000
265000
270000
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
CAStateRealGovtOutput
Analysis.Answers.
Incometaxdrivingtheshow
28
SalesTaxRateDecline
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995-96=100
Index
PIT CORP SALES
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1972I III
1979I III
1986I III
1993I III
2000I III
2007I III
2014I
State&LocalGov.CapitalInvestmentsas%Revenues
Net
Analysis.Answers.
AgandtheDrought
29
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
TotalCAFarmEmployment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1998Q1
1999Q2
2000Q3
2001Q4
2003Q1
2004Q2
2005Q3
2006Q4
2008Q1
2009Q2
2010Q3
2011Q4
2013Q1
2014Q2
2015Q3
TotalCAFarmEarnings($Bil)
Analysis.Answers.
LookingCloser
30
Value($000) ShareAcres(000)
Total $53,492,081
Hay $1,737,024 3.2% 1,375
Output(Tons)
HayGrown 7,388,000
HayExported 1,939,668 0.9%
WaterUsed(000AcreFeet)
TotalAg 40,000
TotalHay 6,875 17.2%
TotalExport 1,805 4.5%
500700900
1,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Thou
sand
s
HayExports(Tons)
Analysis.Answers. 31
HomesandWorkers
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan-94
Jun-96
Nov-98
Apr-01
Sep-03
Feb-06
Jul-0
8
Dec-10
May-13
WorkforceTrends
Payroll LaborForce
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-02
Apr-03
Jul-0
4Oct-05
Jan-07
Apr-08
Jul-0
9Oct-10
Jan-12
Apr-13
Jul-1
4
MedianHomePrices
SouthernCalifornia BayArea US
Analysis.Answers.
LosAngelesCountyRealEstate
32
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1-01
Q3-02
Q1-04
Q3-05
Q1-07
Q3-08
Q1-10
Q3-11
Q1-13
Q3-14
Med
ianPrice($000s,SA)
Trad
i=on
alSales(0
00s,SA)
Res.RealEstatePricesandTradi=onalSales
Tradi;onalSales Price
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1-05
Q1-06
Q1-07
Q1-08
Q1-09
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
Q1-15
Percen
t,NSA
ApartmentVacancyRate
InlandEmpire LosAngelesCounty
OrangeCounty SanDiegoCounty
Analysis.Answers.
Bubble?No…
33
%OverCrowded %Vacant
Hawaii 8.6% Utah 5.1%
California 8.2% Minnesota 5.2%
Alaska 6.5% California 5.3%
NewYork 5.0% Vermont 5.4%
Texas 4.8% Colorado 5.5%
Arizona 4.5% MassachuseDs 5.6%
Nevada 4.2% NewHampshire 5.6%
NewMexico 3.6% Wisconsin 5.8%
DistrictofColumbia 3.3% Oregon 6.0%
Utah 3.3% Washington 6.4%
Oregon 3.3% Idaho 6.4%
Washington 3.1% Delaware 6.9%
Florida 3.0% Maine 7.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
Jan-93
Aug-95
Mar-98
Oct-00
May-03
Dec-05
Jul-0
8Feb-11
Sep-13
CAHousingAffordability
Analysis.Answers.
WhytheShortage?
CEQA
34
Prop-13Under $25,000 -192,061 $25,000 to $50,000 -58,600 $50,000 to $99,999 18,955 Over $100,000 2,619 Total -229,087
TotalDomes;cNetMigra;onbyIncome08-13
Texas Under $25,000 -40070 $25,000 to $50,000 -23741 $50,000 to $99,999 -3433 Over $100,000 599
Analysis.Answers.
PaceofConstruction
35
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Jan-95
Jul-9
6Jan-98
Jul-9
9Jan-01
Jul-0
2Jan-04
Jul-0
5Jan-07
Jul-0
8Jan-10
Jul-1
1Jan-13
Jul-1
4
CaliforniaPermits
Single-Family Mul;-Family
California 4.1 Tulare 4.0Ventura 6.8 LosAngeles 4.0ContraCosta 6.6 Fresno 4.0Sonoma 6.1 SanMateo 3.4Alameda 5.9 Kern 3.0SantaBarbara 5.3 SantaClara 3.0
SanBernardino 5.0 Orange 2.8Solano 4.6 Placer 2.1Riverside 4.5 SanFrancisco 2.1SanDiego 4.2 Sacramento 0.7
NewPop/Permits
Analysis.Answers. 36
Economic&RevenueForecastingRegionalIntelligenceReportsBusiness&MarketAnalysisRealEstateMarketAnalysisPorts&InfrastructureAnalysisEconomicImpactAnalysisPublicPolicyAnalysis
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