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Find out which
team has 21.27%
chances to win
Bisnode Cup
2016...
BISNODE CUP 2016
...best defence strength
...best attack strength
How we did it
Purpose of analysis was to estimate attack and defense strengths of each national team. Various rankings
and statistics on teams and clubs were used as proxies. Matches played in qualification round were used to value and link proxies to attack and defense strenghts of teams (most likelihood estimation method was used).
Random sampling and simulations were used to avoid overfitting the data.The main assumptions is that matches played in qualification round represent an unbiased sample of matches in the final tournament (i.e. France performance in qualifying stage is biased since France played only friendly matches in qualifying round). France is the only team who has the »home field advantage« in the final tournament.
Based on our estimates of teams attack and defense strenghts more than 15.000 simulations of final tournament were performed. Based on those simulations the following results are presented.
Making predictions with statistics
Bisnode Big Data Analytics Lab is using unstructured and scattered web data combined with analytical
models to predict the outcome of European Football Cup 2016. By analyzing the teams and players by
goal intensity, attack and defense strength, historical results, etc. prediction can be done about each match
ending, the results of the group stage, and the outcome of the playoff tree and finally who will be the winner.
footballcup2016.bisnode.com
GROUP A
Albania
France
Romania
Switzerland
DefenceFIFA ranking
Attack
Expected group results
Expected group table
The most likely candidates for the top two
places in Group A are Switzerland and
France, with Switzerland being slightly
more favoured for first place. Third place will most probably go to Romania, but
it is most likely that Romania will not be
among the four best third-ranked teams.
Albania is the outsider with odds in favour
of it taking last place.
Albania without big chances in this group
Group A
France
Switzerland
Albania
Romania
France 0 - 0 Romania 24%
Albania 0 - 1 Switzerland 16%
Romania 0 - 0 Switzerland 23%
France 1 - 0 Albania 17%
Romania 0 - 0 Albania 26%
Switzerland 1 - 1 France 13%
Pts GG GR GD
Switzerland 5 4 2 2
France 5 4 2 2
Romania 4 2 2 0
Albania 2 2 4 -245
14
19
21
France Switzerland Albania Romania
GROUP B
England is Group B’s clear favourite
for winning first place, while out of the remaining three teams Russia has the best
chances of taking second place. When
it comes to Wales and Slovakia, Wales
is ahead in third-place forecasts, while
Slovakia is most likely to be the bottom-
placed team in this group.
England is the biggest favourite in Group B
Group B
Wales England Slovakia Russia
England
Russia
Slovakia
Wales
DefenceFIFA ranking
Attack
Expected group results
Expected group table
Slovakia
England
Wales
Russia
Wales 0 - 0 Slovakia 18%
England 1 - 0 Russia 19%
Russia 1 - 0 Slovakia 13%
England 1 - 0 Wales 25%
Russia 0 - 0 Wales 23%
Slovakia 0 - 2 England 16%
Pts GG GR GD
England 6 5 1 4
Russia 4 3 3 0
Wales 3 2 3 -1
Slovakia 2 2 5 -3
24
10
27
32
GROUP C
Germany is by far the biggest favourite for
winning first place in Group C and there should be little doubt that they will move to
the next round of the competition. On the
other hand, Poland and the Ukraine have
almost equal chances of taking second
place, with Poland just slightly ahead. Odds
are Northern Ireland will take last place.
Big fight between Poland and the Ukraine for second place
Group C
Germany
Northern Ireland
Poland
Ukraine
DefenceFIFA ranking
Attack
Expected group results
Expected group table
Ukraine
Germany
N. Ireland
Poland
Poland 2 - 1 N. Ireland 9%
Germany 1 - 0 Ukraine 23%
Ukraine 0 - 0 N. Ireland 20%
Germany 2 - 1 Poland 9%
N. Ireland 0 - 2 Germany 13%
Ukraine 1 - 1 Poland 14%
Pts GG GR GD
Germany 7 6 2 4
Poland 4 4 5 -1
Ukraine 4 2 3 -1
Northern Ireland 3 3 6 -3
26
5
27
22
Northern Ireland
Germany Poland Ukraine
GROUP D
Defending champions Spain have the best
chances of winning first place in this group. Croatia and Turkey have equal chances in the
fight for second place, with estimates that both teams will move on to the quarterfinals. On the other hand, the Czech Republic
has the least chance of advancing in the
competition and avoiding taking last place.
Spain is the favourite, while the Czech Republic is the outsider
Group D
Croatia
Czech Republic
Spain
Turkey
Expected group results
Expected group table
Turkey 0 - 0 Croatia 21%
Spain 2 - 0 Czech Rep. 13%
Czech Rep. 0 - 1 Croatia 11%
Spain 1 - 0 Turkey 21%
Croatia 0 - 0 Spain 24%
Czech Rep. 1 - 2 Turkey 10%
Pts GG GR GD
Spain 6 5 2 3
Croatia 4 3 3 0
Turkey 4 3 3 0
Czech Republic 2 3 7 -4
Czech Rep.
Croatia
Spain
Turkey
6
23
13
29
DefenceFIFA ranking
Attack
Spain Czech Republic
Croatia Turkey
GROUP E
Belgium is the biggest favourite in this group.
Italy has good odds for advancing as the
second-ranked team, while Ireland is given
slightly better odds against Sweden in the fight for third place. As one of the four best third-
ranked teams, Ireland should move to the
quarterfinals, making Sweden the only team in this group to catch the early flight home.
Belgium is the strongest team, Ireland and Sweden in battle for third place
Group E
Belgium
Ireland
Italy
Sweden
Expected group results
Expected group table
Ireland 1 - 0 Sweden 15%
Belgium 1 - 0 Italy 18%
Italy 1 - 0 Sweden 12%
Belgium 1 - 0 Ireland 23%
Italy 1 - 0 Ireland 18%
Sweden 0 - 1 Belgium 16%
Pts GG GR GD
Belgium 6 5 2 3
Italy 4 3 3 0
Ireland 3 2 3 -1
Sweden 3 2 5 -3
Sweden
Italy
Belgium
Ireland
2
15
31
36
DefenceFIFA ranking
Attack
Ireland Belgium Italy Sweden
GROUP F
Austria is considered this group’s favourite,
while analysis shows that Portugal has the
best chances of winning second place.
Iceland and Hungary have vastly smaller
chances of advancing, with Iceland having
a slight advantage. However, Iceland is
considered one of the two third-ranked teams
that will not continue the competition.
Austria has the best chances for first place
Group F
Austria
Hungary
Iceland
Portugal
Expected group results
Expected group table
Austria 1 - 0 Hungary 18%
Portugal 0 - 0 Iceland 21%
Iceland 0 - 0 Hungary 21%
Portugal 0 - 1 Austria 17%
Hungary 0 - 1 Portugal 19%
Iceland 0 - 1 Austria 20%
Pts GG GR GD
Austria 6 4 2 2
Portugal 4 3 2 1
Iceland 3 2 3 -1
Hungary 3 2 4 -2
Portugal
Hungary
Austria
Iceland
11
18
35
8
DefenceAttackFIFA ranking
Iceland Portugal Austria Hungary
Attack strengthall teams
1.46 Germany
1.38 Belgium
1.36 Poland
1.29 Czech Republic
1.15 Italy
1.07 France
1.04 Sweden
0.93 Croatia
0.88 Northern Ireland
0.66 Albania
0.61 Iceland
0.55 Romania
1.38 England
1,.31 Spain
1.26 Switzerland
1.24 Austria
1.15 Russia
1.05 Turkey
0.96 Slovakia
0.92 Portugal
0.74 Ireland
0.62 Hungary
0.61 Wales
0.49 Ukraine
According to the analysis, Germany has the
greatest offence potential, followed by England
and Belgium, Poland and Spain. On the other
hand, the Ukraine, Romania, Wales, Iceland and
Hungary have the weakest offence potential.
The host France takes 11th place according to
offence potential.
Defence strenghtall teams
England 1.54
Spain 1.65
Romania 1.32
Ukraine 1.24
Wales 1.22
Ireland 1.09
Turkey 1.07
Switzerland 1.03
Iceland 0.94
Hungary 0.68
Albania 0.66
Northern Ireland 0.52
Czech Republic 0.26
Belgium 1.53
Croatia 1.30
Germany 1.22
Austria 1.13
Russia 1.08
Portugal 1.04
Italy 1.02
France 0.94
Sweden 0.66
Slovakia 0.57
Poland 0.37
Spain has the greatest defence potential, followed
by England, Belgium, Romania and Croatia. On
the opposite end, the Czech Republic takes last
place, with Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and
Albania ahead. The host France takes 16th place
according to defence potential.
ProbabilitiesAlbania
Slovakia
Iceland
Poland
Ireland
Romania
Turkey
Croatia
France
Austria
Belgium
Spain
England
Germany
Switzerland
Russia
Italy
Portugal
Wales
Ukraine
Sweden
Northern Ireland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Group winner 1/8 1/4 1/2 Finale Champion
Even Albania could win the group (6.2%)
According to probability calculations for each team to
reach a certain phase of the competition, the defending
champions Spain are most likely to win the tournament. The
next favourite in line is England, followed by Belgium and
Germany with probability scores of over 10%. Least likely to
win the tournament is the Czech Republic, with a further ten
teams having a less than 1% chance of winning.
Wales has a 0.84%
chance of winning the
tournament
Germany’s chances
of winning the
tournament (23.6%)
are lower than those
of Spain, England
and Belgium
1/8
Group stage
1/4
1/2
Final
According to the Bisnode forecast for the upcoming Euro,
Spain will defend their title of European champions by beating
Belgium in the final match, played in Paris. England and Switzerland will be the semi-finalists, while the host France will be eliminated in the quarterfinals along with Austria, Germany and Russia.
ForecastA B C D E F
Switzerland England Germany Spain Belgium Austria
France Russia Poland Croatia Italy Portugal
Romania Wales Ukraine Turkey Ireland Iceland
Albania Slovakia Northern Ireland Czech Republic Sweden Hungary
Poland - France England - Turkey Spain - Iceland Switzerland - Ukraine Germany - Romania Austria - Italy Belgium - Croatia Russia - Portugal
France - Spain England - Austria Germany - Belgium Switzerland - Russia
Spain - England Belgium - Switzerland
Spain - Belgium
SpainBisnode Cup Champion
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