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Exploring the “Magic” of Algorithmic Predictions
Joyce Lee Sejal PopatSoravis Prakkamakul
UC Berkeley School of Information2019 MIMS Final Presentation
Why do we think oftechnology as magic?
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
Clarke, A. (1999) [1st pub. 1962, rev. 1973, 1984, 1999]. Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry Into the Limits of the Possible. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart & Wilson.
Clarke, A. (1999) [1st pub. 1962, rev. 1973, 1984, 1999]. Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry Into the Limits of the Possible. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart & Wilson.
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
What underlies algorithmic “magic”?
1
Proprietary concerns
2
Technical illiteracy
Burrell, J. (2016). How the Machine ‘Thinks’: Understanding Opacity in Machine Learning Algorithms. Big Data & Society. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951715622512.
AstrologyAura ReadingMediumshipNumerologyPalm ReadingPhysiognomyPhrenologyPsychometryTarot Card Reading
But attempting to predict is nothing new…
ObjectiveCan reframing algorithmic predictions with the deliberately mystical lens of divination lead people to reconsider its sense of “magic”?
ApproachWithin the traditions of reflective & speculative design, we develop an interactive installation that enables technology-mediated tarot-card readings.
Research Questions
1 Will people question how algorithmic prediction works in the context of divination?
2
Will people resist sharing personal data for the purpose of “algorithmic divination”?
System Design
Interaction flow
Conversational Interface
Text Analysis & Visualization
Personality Prediction
Tarot Card Reading
Topic Visualization
Interior Lamp
BlackCurtains
Card DispensingSlot
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Future Prediction
Past Prediction
Present Prediction
Raw Speech
SpeechRecognition
Intent Recognition
Topic Analysis(Empath)
Sentiment Analysis
MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)
Future Prediction
Past Prediction
Present Prediction
Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.
Raw Speech
SpeechRecognition
Intent Recognition
Topic Analysis(Empath)
Sentiment Analysis
MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)
Future Prediction
Past Prediction
Present Prediction
Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.
Raw Speech
SpeechRecognition
Intent Recognition
Topic Analysis(Empath)
Sentiment Analysis
MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)
Future Prediction
Past Prediction
Present Prediction
Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Tarot CardPrinter
Monitor
Laptop
Microphone Array
Research Approach
10 ParticipantsAges 25-40 50% female
Sample Recruited via Email
Self-Guided Tarot Reading
Follow-Up Interview
ResultingThemes
1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data
2
Interrogating underlying technology
ResultingThemes
1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data
2
Interrogating underlying technology
Difficult questions
“The questions got . . . pretty personal. ”
Presence of a camera
“I remembered that it was being recorded, like there’s a video. So I wondered, ‘Should I be giving all this information out? ”
Speaking vs. writing
“There is a sense in opening your own mouth to say things that you’re handing over more information… There’s something about talking that makes it feel different”
ResultingThemes
1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data
2
Interrogating underlying technology
ResultingThemes
1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data
2
Interrogating underlying technology
Reflection vs. inception
“I wasn’t sure whether I was being reflected or lead”
Contesting classification…
“If I see I’m kind of pigeon holed… I either reassess myself, or question what the algorithm is latching onto”
… or being unable to exercise agency
“There’s no real agency to clarify what you mean”
General sense of opacity
“Its mysterious. I mean we assume they’re working. A lot of prediction is business oriented and we don’t know what’s being maximized. ”
Research Questions, Revisited
1 Will people question how algorithmic prediction works in the context of divination?
2
Will people resist sharing personal data for the purpose of “algorithmic divination”?
Insights 1
Participants were most interested in the process of generating predictions, rather than the outcomes themselves
Insights 2
Participants felt they had very little agency to control how they were “seen” by the system; many wondered if they were being reflected or led
Implications 1
The magical, optimistic presentation of algorithmic predictions may be doing more harm than good
Implications 2
We see a need for transparent communication of technology’s inner workings, even if this requires purposeful ambiguity and room for interpretation
Why do we think oftechnology as magic?
Many Thanks To . . .
Our advisor, Kimiko Ryokai
Our research participants
Our I School professors & department staff
Our friends & family (that’s you!)
Exploring the “Magic” of Algorithmic Predictions
Joyce Lee Sejal PopatSoravis Prakkamakul
UC Berkeley School of Information2019 MIMS Final Presentation
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