Exploring the “Magic” of Algorithmic Predictions

Joyce Lee Sejal PopatSoravis Prakkamakul

UC Berkeley School of Information2019 MIMS Final Presentation

Why do we think oftechnology as magic?

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

Clarke, A. (1999) [1st pub. 1962, rev. 1973, 1984, 1999]. Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry Into the Limits of the Possible. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart & Wilson.

Clarke, A. (1999) [1st pub. 1962, rev. 1973, 1984, 1999]. Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry Into the Limits of the Possible. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart & Wilson.

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

What underlies algorithmic “magic”?

1

Proprietary concerns

2

Technical illiteracy

Burrell, J. (2016). How the Machine ‘Thinks’: Understanding Opacity in Machine Learning Algorithms. Big Data & Society. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951715622512.

AstrologyAura ReadingMediumshipNumerologyPalm ReadingPhysiognomyPhrenologyPsychometryTarot Card Reading

But attempting to predict is nothing new…

ObjectiveCan reframing algorithmic predictions with the deliberately mystical lens of divination lead people to reconsider its sense of “magic”?

ApproachWithin the traditions of reflective & speculative design, we develop an interactive installation that enables technology-mediated tarot-card readings.

Research Questions

1 Will people question how algorithmic prediction works in the context of divination?

2

Will people resist sharing personal data for the purpose of “algorithmic divination”?

System Design

Interaction flow

Conversational Interface

Text Analysis & Visualization

Personality Prediction

Tarot Card Reading

Topic Visualization

Interior Lamp

BlackCurtains

Card DispensingSlot

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Future Prediction

Past Prediction

Present Prediction

Raw Speech

SpeechRecognition

Intent Recognition

Topic Analysis(Empath)

Sentiment Analysis

MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)

Future Prediction

Past Prediction

Present Prediction

Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.

Raw Speech

SpeechRecognition

Intent Recognition

Topic Analysis(Empath)

Sentiment Analysis

MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)

Future Prediction

Past Prediction

Present Prediction

Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.

Raw Speech

SpeechRecognition

Intent Recognition

Topic Analysis(Empath)

Sentiment Analysis

MBTI PersonalityAnalysis (SpaCy)

Future Prediction

Past Prediction

Present Prediction

Basic Interactions:Skip, Repeat, etc.

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Tarot CardPrinter

Monitor

Laptop

Microphone Array

Research Approach

10 ParticipantsAges 25-40 50% female

Sample Recruited via Email

Self-Guided Tarot Reading

Follow-Up Interview

ResultingThemes

1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data

2

Interrogating underlying technology

ResultingThemes

1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data

2

Interrogating underlying technology

Difficult questions

“The questions got . . . pretty personal. ”

Presence of a camera

“I remembered that it was being recorded, like there’s a video. So I wondered, ‘Should I be giving all this information out? ”

Speaking vs. writing

“There is a sense in opening your own mouth to say things that you’re handing over more information… There’s something about talking that makes it feel different”

ResultingThemes

1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data

2

Interrogating underlying technology

ResultingThemes

1 Questioning whether or not to share personal data

2

Interrogating underlying technology

Reflection vs. inception

“I wasn’t sure whether I was being reflected or lead”

Contesting classification…

“If I see I’m kind of pigeon holed… I either reassess myself, or question what the algorithm is latching onto”

… or being unable to exercise agency

“There’s no real agency to clarify what you mean”

General sense of opacity

“Its mysterious. I mean we assume they’re working. A lot of prediction is business oriented and we don’t know what’s being maximized. ”

Research Questions, Revisited

1 Will people question how algorithmic prediction works in the context of divination?

2

Will people resist sharing personal data for the purpose of “algorithmic divination”?

Insights 1

Participants were most interested in the process of generating predictions, rather than the outcomes themselves

Insights 2

Participants felt they had very little agency to control how they were “seen” by the system; many wondered if they were being reflected or led

Implications 1

The magical, optimistic presentation of algorithmic predictions may be doing more harm than good

Implications 2

We see a need for transparent communication of technology’s inner workings, even if this requires purposeful ambiguity and room for interpretation

Why do we think oftechnology as magic?

Many Thanks To . . .

Our advisor, Kimiko Ryokai

Our research participants

Our I School professors & department staff

Our friends & family (that’s you!)

Exploring the “Magic” of Algorithmic Predictions

Joyce Lee Sejal PopatSoravis Prakkamakul

UC Berkeley School of Information2019 MIMS Final Presentation