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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Gary Graham, SPSG Chair
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Overview
• Background• Currently identified issues• New issues?• Next steps
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
EWCC Scenario—Background
October, 2014
Energy-Water-Climate Change Workshop, Salt Lake City
December, 2014
Scenario Planning Workshop
December, 2014
First Draft of Scenario
January, 2015
Second Draft of Scenario
February, 2015
SPSG Discussion
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Currently-Identified Issues
Temperature Change
How should a temperature
rise of 3°F. by 2034 be
characterized?
Are we appropriately addressing broader “climate change” or only average global
temperature increase?
Causality
How should the scenario treat GHG?
How should the scenario treat human influence?
Reliability Risks
How do “system issues” translate into
“reliability risks?”
To what extent are weather-
related outages a
reliability risk?
Water Nexus
Have we adequately addressed West-wide impacts?
Have we adequately
described the importance and nexus of energy
and water?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Currently-Identified Issues
Temperature Change
How should a temperature rise of 3°F. by 2034 be characterized?
Are we appropriately addressing broader “climate change” or only average global temperature increase
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
EPA Temperature Projections From IPCC Emission Models
Highest Emissions = +30F in 2034
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Temperature Change
3°F is our TARGET Consistent for 2035 for highest emissions: Consistent with lowest for 2100; Provides greatest credible POTENTIAL for risks: If early indicators show reduced then easier to adapt planning.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Temperature Change
Temperature primary driver but clearly and scientifically it interacts with, and is coupled with precipitation changes, with both contributing to extreme weather events.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Causality
How should the scenario treat GHG?
How should the scenario treat human influence?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Causality
We have to acknowledge that GHG are the most scientifically credible and almost universally accepted cause of climate change or the scenario will not be received as credible by most of our partners as well the scientific and environmental community.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Causality
But we agreed to and do not have to dwell on the human causes of GHG other than as they related to several of the scenario drivers, AS WE DID WITH THE ORIGINAL SCENARIOS, and to acknowledge several early indicators policies that relate to humans causes
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Risks
Reliability RisksHow do “system issues” translate
into “reliability risks?”
To what extent are weather-related outages a reliability risk?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Risks
Climate ChangesTemperature, Precipitation, Extreme Weather
Impacts(Heat Waves, Droughts, Too much water, Fire, Floods etc)
Can Cause Reliability RisksEvent intensity, duration, onset timing et.
And existing or purposeful planning
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Risks
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Water Nexus
Have we adequately addressed potential West-wide impacts to reliability?
Have we adequately described the importance and nexus of energy and water?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Water Nexus
Yes, given our focus on the nexus and the timing and capacity constraints
Yes, adequately, but could be improved
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
New Issues
• Are there other questions, issues or additions that the SPSG should consider for the Scenario?
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Next Steps (Proposed)
SPSG Comments
Feb 20
“Final” Scenario
Mar 6
MDTF Modeling
Parameters
May 5
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