W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario

Gary Graham, SPSG Chair

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Overview

• Background• Currently identified issues• New issues?• Next steps

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EWCC Scenario—Background

October, 2014

Energy-Water-Climate Change Workshop, Salt Lake City

December, 2014

Scenario Planning Workshop

December, 2014

First Draft of Scenario

January, 2015

Second Draft of Scenario

February, 2015

SPSG Discussion

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Currently-Identified Issues

Temperature Change

How should a temperature

rise of 3°F. by 2034 be

characterized?

Are we appropriately addressing broader “climate change” or only average global

temperature increase?

Causality

How should the scenario treat GHG?

How should the scenario treat human influence?

Reliability Risks

How do “system issues” translate into

“reliability risks?”

To what extent are weather-

related outages a

reliability risk?

Water Nexus

Have we adequately addressed West-wide impacts?

Have we adequately

described the importance and nexus of energy

and water?

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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Currently-Identified Issues

Temperature Change

How should a temperature rise of 3°F. by 2034 be characterized?

Are we appropriately addressing broader “climate change” or only average global temperature increase

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EPA Temperature Projections From IPCC Emission Models

Highest Emissions = +30F in 2034

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Temperature Change

3°F is our TARGET Consistent for 2035 for highest emissions: Consistent with lowest for 2100; Provides greatest credible POTENTIAL for risks: If early indicators show reduced then easier to adapt planning.

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Temperature Change

Temperature primary driver but clearly and scientifically it interacts with, and is coupled with precipitation changes, with both contributing to extreme weather events.

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Causality

How should the scenario treat GHG?

How should the scenario treat human influence?

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Causality

We have to acknowledge that GHG are the most scientifically credible and almost universally accepted cause of climate change or the scenario will not be received as credible by most of our partners as well the scientific and environmental community.

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Causality

But we agreed to and do not have to dwell on the human causes of GHG other than as they related to several of the scenario drivers, AS WE DID WITH THE ORIGINAL SCENARIOS, and to acknowledge several early indicators policies that relate to humans causes

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Reliability Risks

Reliability RisksHow do “system issues” translate

into “reliability risks?”

To what extent are weather-related outages a reliability risk?

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Reliability Risks

Climate ChangesTemperature, Precipitation, Extreme Weather

Impacts(Heat Waves, Droughts, Too much water, Fire, Floods etc)

Can Cause Reliability RisksEvent intensity, duration, onset timing et.

And existing or purposeful planning

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Reliability Risks

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Water Nexus

Have we adequately addressed potential West-wide impacts to reliability?

Have we adequately described the importance and nexus of energy and water?

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Water Nexus

Yes, given our focus on the nexus and the timing and capacity constraints

Yes, adequately, but could be improved

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New Issues

• Are there other questions, issues or additions that the SPSG should consider for the Scenario?

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Next Steps (Proposed)

SPSG Comments

Feb 20

“Final” Scenario

Mar 6

MDTF Modeling

Parameters

May 5