Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India - Urban Mobility...

Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India

Minal Pathak, CEPT University, AhmedabadSubash Dhar, UNEP

P.R. Shukla, IIMA

Key Interventions

National Level

Macro Indicatorsof Low Carbon

Transport

Case Studyof mega

infrastructure /dedicated Rail

Freight Corridor

Fuel EfficiencyPolicy Study

Integrated Assessment of theTransport Sector up to 2050

AdaptationFramework for

Climate Proofing

Sustainability Indicators forUrban Transport

Planning

Case Studies of UrbanTransport Technologies -

Metro, BRT, NMT

Methodology for Developmentof Low Carbon Comprehensive

Mobility Plans

Low-Carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plans

Toolkit on Low CarbonComprehensiveMobility Plans

Development of Project Proposals- technology and financial packagesfor implementation of action plans

Transport Action Plan

Completed activity ongoing activity

City Level

Net

wor

king

and

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ion

Shar

ing

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ps, w

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ublic

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ns, c

ase

stud

ies)

Target activity for 2012 /13

Decomposing CO2 ReductionsDecomposing CO2 Reductions

Scenario Framework

Trends in Personal Vehicle OwnershipTrends in Personal Vehicle Ownership

PM10 levels in Indian cities (2001 and 2011)

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350

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Integrated Modeling FrameworkIntegrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

DATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/GCAM

ANSWER-MARKALModel

Modal Choice ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM (SD

B)

(Strategic Database)

Drivers: Population, Urbanization and GDP growthDrivers: Population, Urbanization and GDP growth

Projected Vehicle OwnershipProjected Vehicle Ownership

National Policies and Programs

• India’s Climate Change Plan (INDCs)– focuses on vehicle efficiency and clean fuel use

• The ‘Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid& Electric Vehicles’ in India (FAME India), a schemeformulated as part of the ‘National Electric MobilityMission Plan 2020 (NEMMP)’,– to promote faster adoption and manufacturing of hybrid

and electric vehicles in the country by providing incentives.• ‘Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Program’

– with effect beginning in April 2016, sets the efficiencytargets for new cars.

National Electric Mobility Mission Plan

• Demand side incentives- focused to create demand throughincentivizing consumers.

• Supply side Incentives- focus to create supply of affordable vehiclesinto the market.

• R & D – focus to create technology capability to achieve localizationand domestic manufacturers.

• Charging Infrastructure- focus to create conducive environment formass adoption of Electric Vehicles.

• Pilot projects- focus towards creating awareness, kick start adoption,test market condition, developing conducive business models andproduct feedback from customers.

• Estimated fuel savings of 2.2 – 2.5 million tonnes, Substantiallowering of vehicular emissions and decrease in carbon dioxideemissions by 1.3%-1.5% in 2020 compared to the status quo scenario.

Range of Battery Types, Energy and Price

Bruce et al., 2012; Shukla et al., 2014

Challenges for EVs in India

• Charging infrastructure• Smart Grids• Battery recycling• Dedicated lanes for EVs

• Taxation of vehiclesand components

• Subsidies on fossil fuels• Electricity tariff policies

• Efficiencies of batteries• Driving range of EVs• Charging time• Safety• Environmental Impacts

• Testing and certification• Vehicle Servicing• High capital cost and Financing• Electricity quality• Market for electricity storage• Consumer perceptions• Raw Materials for

batteries Market Technical

InfrastructurePolicy

Scenario Architecture

EV Scenarios

BAUFollow existing trends

in socio-economictransitions

EV ScenarioStrong policy support

for EVs whichimproves the

competitiveness of EVs

EV plus 2 degree CScenario

Considers both apolicy push for EVs and

a carbon price

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

BAU EV Scenario EV + 2 deg C

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

BAU EV Scenario EV + 2 deg C

Modal Shares of EV in 2 wheelers and cars

Share of Electric and Hybrid 2 wheelersShare of Electric and Hybrid 2 wheelers Share of Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell 4 wheelersShare of Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell 4 wheelers

Energy Demand and Fuel Mix for Electricity

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

BAU EV Scenario EV + 2 deg C

Electricity Output 2035 (Twh)

Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

BAU EV Scenario EV + 2 deg C

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BAU EV Scenario EV + 2 deg C

CO2 Emissions in different EV scenariosCO2 Emissions in different EV scenarios

PM2.5 Emissions in different EVscenarios

PM2.5 Emissions in different EVscenarios

-

50,000

1,00,000

1,50,000

2,00,000

2,50,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BAU EV Scenario EV+2 deg C

Key FindingsKey Findings

• Given India’s large growing 2-wh market, there exists a significantpotential for scaling up electric two-wheelers

• Opportunity to develop domestic industry and emerge as a major playerin the global market

• Financial support, incentives and infrastructure can increase the share ofEVs.

• EV policies supported by carbon price increase competitiveness of EVscompared with conventional vehicles and can result in rapid diffusion

• Significant air pollution reduction in near and medium term• Shift away from oil and contribute to energy security• If electricity is decarbonized, EVs can also be a significant option for CO2

mitigation

Thank you

• Resources• Project Website

www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon

Reports Referred• Shukla, P. R., Dhar, S., Pathak, M., & Bhaskar, K. 2014. Electric Vehicles Scenarios

and Roadmap for India. Copenhagen: UNEP DTU Partnership.http://www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon/PDFs/ElectricVehicleScenarios.pdf

• Dhar, S., Pathak, M., & Shukla, P. R. 2015. Transport Scenarios for India:Harmonising Development and Climate Benefits: UNEP DTU Partnership,Technical University of Denmark