Dr John Tibby Senior Lecturer © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman...

Dr John TibbySenior Lecturer

© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

Questions for you… Trends in global climate and carbon

emissions Which countries emit the most? What is the risk? What are the solutions?

• Global• Australia

When was the last Ice Age? When did it finish? How much did The Earth warm?

Image source: www.strangesounds.org

2100 m

900 m

1250 m

3300 m

Why? Perhaps does not

understand “tragedy of the commons”, “the precautionary principle” and “ecological footprints”

Image source: www.sbs.com.au

Hardin, G. 1968. A biologist wrote “The Tragedy of the Commons” in journal the Science.

Argued that in absence of private property rights, environment suffers

Occurs: atmosphere and aquatic (esp. marine) environments

1.8-4.0°C end of century (best estimate)

Range: 1.1-6.4°C 2°C: “dangerous”

source: IPCC (2007)

Mandated role of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and IPCC

Definitions vary according to different organisations

How can it be avoided?

In the industrial period…• First 50 ppm increase: took > 200

years• Second 50 ppm increase: took 30 years

(~1970 to 2000)• 2000-2010: 20 ppm increase

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

GHG emissions by sector, 2004 source: IPCC WG3

Conclusion: Conclusion: •Solutions Solutions need to be need to be multi-facetedmulti-faceted•No “silver No “silver bullet”bullet”

Absolute amount per person Historical or accumulated

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Image source: http://image.guardian.co.uk/sysfiles/Guardian/documents/2011/02/10/CarbonWeb.pdf

Qatar: 36.9 tonnesUnited States: 17.3 tonnesAustralia: 17.0 tonnesRussia: 11.6 tonnesGermany: 9.3 tonnesUK: 7.8 tonnesChina: 5.4 tonnes

World average: 4.5 tonnesIndia: 1.4 tonnes

Africa average: 0.9 tonnesEthiopia: 0.1 tonnes

From: Energy Information Association (US)www.eia.gov/

An integrated measure obtained by removing exports but including imports

Belgium 21.9United States of America 20.2Ireland 16.2Finland 15.1Australia 13.8Australia 13.8United Kingdom 11.5

China 4.3Brazil 2.1India 1.3Nigeria 0.5Malawi 0.2

Data source: www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/04/20/1006388108.DCSupplemental/sapp.pdf

http://images.china.cn/http://images.china.cn/

Nation Million tonnes CO2

United States 314772

Russia 89688

China 89243

Germany 73626

United Kingdom 55164

Japan 42696

France 28515

India 25054

Canada 23669

Ukraine 22841

Poland 21263

Italy 17642

South Africa 13242

AustraliaAustralia 1192911929

From: http://www.wri.org

“The challenge – an absolute reduction of global GHG emissions – is daunting. It presupposes a reduction of energy and carbon intensities at a faster rate than income and population growth taken together (p. 109)”

Source: IPPC wg3

What is current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere?

Models vary Replicated science difficult

with a planet Even the simplest of

measures, “climate sensitivity” (i.e. amount of global warming when C02 doubled) is subject of debate

Source: IPPC wg3

Final temp CO2-e best estimate (ppm)

CO2-e 80% confidence

(ppm)

2.O°C 441 378

3.O°C 556 441

4.O°C 701 515

Source: IPPC wg3

CO2-e=Carbon dioxide equivalent (includes other gases)

Conclusion: Conclusion: Precautionary principle Precautionary principle demands very strong demands very strong immediate reductionsimmediate reductions

Source: IPPC wg3

Summary of what action needed to achieve 2 or 3ºC warming

Realise there is considerable variation in the models (see table)

450 ppm CO2-e• requires “dramatic and immediate changes

in global emissions”• discussed at Bali, basis for 25-40%

reduction suggestion• Needs:

peak CO2: 2010 falling to 2000 levels by 2020 half 2000 levels by 2050 1/4 2000 levels by 2100

Stronger than Kyoto Protocol

Based on Garnaut, 2008

550 ppm CO2-e “much higher risks of

dangerous climate change” peak 2030 (at absolute latest) 2000 levels by 2050 (at

absolute latest) Even this only happens with

“only urgent, large, and effective global policy change”

Based on Garnaut, 2008

Applies precautionary principle• absence of scientific certainty not sufficient

to justify a lack of action Implement sustainable development

principles 165 signatories (Dec 2006). US

signed but not ratified

“Common but differentiated responsibilities”It requires 38 participating developed

countries to cut their emissions of gases by an average of 5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012.

Developing countries were excluded.○ The U.S. did not sign, but California and Maine

are participating.○ U.S. did not sign because developing countries

such as China, India and Brazil were excluded.

Order from Strength

Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration

TechnoGarden

Globalization Regionalization

World DevelopmentE

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Man

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Pro

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R

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Link between economic output, development and energy use

Sub-Saharan Africa, electrification to only 23% of population

Sth Asia: 41%

Energy growth demand 1971-2003

~ 550 million tonnes/year

Apparently significant opportunities for a large, hot, flat sparsely populated nation

Include:• solar

2-3 decades away?• geothermal

limited amount of power• land-use change• also of course nuclear and carbon capture

1 dot=1000 people, www.soe.gov.au (2001)

Stationary energy: increased 40% Transport: increased 27% Industry: increased 18% Land-use: decreased 54% (was 24%

of emissions in 1990) Total emissions growth: 4%

At 2020 reduce emissions by 5% of 2000 • 23% of expected growth• 80% by 2050

Included: Carbon Price... Approx. 500 business Price of $23 tonne on carbon

• 2.5%/year increase until 2015 + “carbon farming”

Garnaut Review (2008, final report) argued that revegetation of (semi) arid lands might allow uptake of 250 million tonnes carbon • half Australia’s emissions• $2.5 Billion/year to rural Australia @

$20/tonne carbon

http://www.daff.gov.au/ www.hreoc.gov.au

The ecological footprint of Australia (and other developed nations) has been substantial and continues to grow

This knowledge underpins global solutions that emphasise shared responsibility

Adaptation to climate change is going to be a large part of our lives

Garnaut review: www.garnautreview.org.auPacala, S. and Socolow, R. 2004. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the

Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Science 305: 968-972.

Parry M. 2009. Closing the loop between mitigation, impacts and adaptation. Climatic Change 96: 23-27.

Mackey, B.G., Keith, H., Berry, S.L. and Lindenmayer, D. B. 2008. Green carbon :the role of natural forests in carbon storage. Part 1, A green carbon account of Australia’s south-eastern Eucalypt forest, and policy implications. Canberra, ANU E Press.

Trenberth K. and Dai A. (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering Geophysical Research Letters. L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524

Witze, A. 2009. Geoengineering schemes under scrutiny. Nature news, see: http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090807/full/news.2009.810.html