Decision Science for Marine Spatial Planning

Steve Gaines

University of California, Santa Barbara

Decision Science for Marine Spatial Planning

Functional Connections Play Key RoleIn Ecosystem Dynamics

Human Uses Are no Exception

Fisheries

Wave energy AquacultureWind energy

LNG Desalination MPAs

Coastal propertyRecreation

Shipping

How do we MakeRational Decisions?

Chris Costello, Sarah Lester, Ben Halpern, Sarah Anderson, Steve Katz, Kristin Carden, Phil Levin

MSP is about Tradeoffs

• Multiple co-occurring activities is the norm

• Activities interact to affect ecosystem services

• Ignoring interactions creates unanticipated consequences and potential conflicts

Analysis of Tradeoffs Must Be:

Transparent

Explicit

Flexible

Useful to managers and stakeholders

Ecosystem Service Tradeoff Analysis

• Developed from basic economic decision theory

• Visualizes relationship between 2 or more services

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

Potentially interacting services

e.g., lingcod yield, shoreline protection, aesthetic value, aquaculture

e.g.

, urc

hin

yiel

d, to

uris

m p

rofit

s,

biod

iver

sity

, wav

e en

ergy

Any management action yields an ecosystem services outcome

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

Different actions yield different ecosystem services outcomes

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

InherentTradeoff?

How can you distinguish between trade-offs and suboptimal decisions?

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

Explore all management options

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

EcosystemServicesFrontier

Management options that maximize two services combined lie on the frontier

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

Reveals sub-optimal decisions

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

Choosing among optimal solutions depends on societal values/preferences

Does the frontier always have this shape?

The shape of the frontier provides important information

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

The Cost of Institutional/Legal Bottlenecks

NMFS

FWS

FERC

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

The Cost of Institutional Bottlenecks

Small Costs

Ecosystem Service 1

Ecos

yste

m S

ervi

ce 2

The Cost of Institutional Bottlenecks

Large Costs

Total Fish Biomass (Conservation)

Fish

ery

Prof

it

Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation

Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation

Total Fish Biomass (Conservation)

Fish

ery

Prof

it

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

?

Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation

Total Fish Biomass

Fish

ery

Prof

it

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

All Harvest PoliciesOn Frontier IncludeMarine Reserves

Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation

Applying tradeoff analysis to emerging ocean uses

Wave energy

Aquaculture

Wind energy

LNG Desalination

Many competing technologies

• pistons and forced air• hinged, articulating• wave overtopping• Faraday principle

Fish

ery

Pro

fit

Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value

Real Estate Value

Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value

- What distance from shore to site wave farm?

shor

elin

e

offshore distance

shallow deep

crabs

- Estimate value of fishery per km (from 3-9km offshore)- Assume WE displaces crab fishing with no benefits

Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value

- What distance from shore to site wave farm?

shor

elin

e

offshore distance

shallow deep

crabsview

- Estimate value of coastal real estate- WE reduces value by amount of view impacted by buoys

Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value

- What distance from shore to site wave farm?

shor

elin

e

offshore distance

shallow deep

crabswavebuoys

view

- Estimate value of wave energy per km (from 3-10km)- Evaluate range of offshore distance siting options

Maximum energy profit at 5km offshore

Crab profit decreased by wave energy

View maximally impacted by wave energy

Putting the pieces together

Maximum energy profit at 5km offshore

Crab profit decreased by wave energy

View maximally impacted by wave energy

Peak value: 4.95 km

TOTAL

Putting the pieces together

Adding More Reality

• Coastal Erosion

• Barriers to Movement (boats, mammals)

• Benefits to Fisheries?

• Alongshore Locations

Benefits of an MSP Decision Framework

• Separates Real Tradeoffs from Poor Decisions

• Identifies Critical Science Needs

• Measures Costs of Ignorance & Suboptimal Governance