Creating a Long-Term Vision: The Sustained Climate Assessment · 2013-04-29 · Paul Fleming, Paul...

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Creating a Long-Term Vision:

The Sustained Climate Assessment

April 24, 2013

Moderator: Jim Buizer

Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona

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800.552.8380 www.antiochne.edu

Socially Relevant,

Practice-Oriented Graduate Study

• MBA in Sustainability • MS & PhD in Environmental Studies • Sustainable Development & Climate Change (A Professional Science Master’s Degree)

• MEd in Educating for Sustainability • Resource Management and Conservation • Environmental Education or Science Teaching • Advocacy, Conservation Biology, and more

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Jim Buizer, NCADAC Executive Secretariat member and Convening Lead Author of the Sustained Assessment Special Report, is the Director of the Climate Adaptation and International Development Program in the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona, where he also holds an appointment as Professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment.

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• Introduction to the Panel: Jim Buizer

• Panel Presentations Paul Fleming: Seattle Public Utilities, “Value of a Sustained National

Climate Assessment – the Local Government Perspective“ Bull Bennett: President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; National

Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee. , "Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – the Tribal Nation Perspective“

Anne Waple: US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and Second Nature, “Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – How to Engage”

• Audience Questions: Send your questions through the chat box

• Summary Points

• Thank you! Please fill out the audience survey.

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Anne Waple: Holds appointments jointly with the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), helping to manage the Global Change Information System, and for Second Nature developing adaptation-focused activities

Paul Fleming, Paul Fleming, Climate Resiliency Group for the Seattle Public Utilities, is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee, Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report’s Water Resources Chapter and the Special Report on a Sustained Assessment, and a Lead Author on the Draft Report’s Adaptation Chapter.

Dr. T. M. Bull Bennett, President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee and Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report's Chapter on Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources .

James L. Buizer National Climate Assessment

Development & Advisory Committee

University of Arizona April 24, 2013

US National Climate Assessment

Global Change Research Act (1990) Mandate:

“To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”

13 Federal Departments & Agencies + Executive Office of the President

National Climate Assessment: GCRA (1990), Section 106

…not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which –

• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;

• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and

• analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

A Sustained National Climate Assessment

• Creating and sustaining the capacity to conduct and use assessments is an essential part of the NCA process

• The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) is charged with both producing a synthesis assessment report and providing advice on the sustained process

A Sustained Climate Assessment

• Vision: “Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States.”

Sustained Assessment Foundational Elements and Special Reports

• Foundational Elements – Scenario development

– Indicators

– Vulnerability Assessments

– Valuation

• Special topics Reports (e.g.) – Food security

– International context

– Water and drought

– Large biophysical regions

Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – the Local Government Perspective

Paul Fleming, paul.fleming@seattle.gov

Climate Resiliency Group

Seattle Public Utilities

Chair, Water Utility Climate Alliance

Security & Sustainability Forum

The Long Term Vision: Developing a Sustained Climate Assessment

April 24, 2013

SPU’s Climate Program

Urban Drainage

Water Supply

Sea Level Rise

Snowpack

Precipitation Water quality/turbidity

Forest fires

Building Adaptive Capacity

• Enhance knowledge by engaging the science

• Assess impacts and vulnerabilities

• Establish collaborative partnerships

• Strengthen institutions and people

• Mainstream adaptation & mitigation into decision-making

Sustained Assessment Vision

“Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the

United States.”

Leverage Existing Efforts Seattle

Public Utilities (Chair)

San Francisco Public Utilities Commission

Metropolitan Water

District of

So. California

San Diego County Water Authority

Southern Nevada Water Authority Denver

Water

Portland Water Bureau

New York City Department of

Environmental Protection

Tampa Bay Water (Vice Chair)

Central Arizona Project

Slide created by David Behar, SFPUC

Mission: The Water Utility Climate Alliances provides leadership in assessing and adapting to the potential effects of climate change through collaborative action. We seek to enhance the usefulness of climate science for the adaptation community and improve water management decision-making in the face of climate uncertainty.

Recognize Local Challenges

Carmin, JoAnn, Nikhil Nadkami, and Christopher Rhie. 2012. Progress and Challenges in Urban Climate Adaptation Planning: Results of a Global Survey. Cambridge, MA: MIT

Segmentation, Differentiation and Harmonization • Products and processes that speak to

and support multiple audiences – qualitative, spatially coarse narratives

– quantitative data

– advancements in decision support methods

• Products and processes that coalesce thinking across agencies or sectors – Special Reports

– Urban Systems, Infrastructure and Vulnerability

Incorporate climate change into decision making

Thank You

The Sustained Assessment:

Impacts of Climate Change on

Tribal, Indigenous, and Native

Lands and Resources

T. M. Bull Bennett PhD

National Climate Sustained Assessment Webinar

April 24, 2013

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• Historically underrepresented in Climate Assessment Process

• Equivalent to 5th Largest State in US • Climate impacts relevant across all sectors • Limited resources make Indigenous

populations most vulnerable

NCADAC ES Meeting 26

Key Message 1:

• Climate change related impacts, such as increased

frequency and intensity of wildfires, higher

temperatures, ecosystem changes, ocean

acidification, forest loss and habitat damage, are

threatening Native American and Alaska Native

access to traditional foods such as salmon,

shellfish, wild and cultivated crops, and marine

mammals, which have provided sustenance as well

as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community

health for countless generations

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Key Message 2:

• A significant decrease in water quality and quantity

caused by a variety of factors including climate

change, is affecting Native Americans’ and Alaska

Natives’ drinking water supplies, food, cultures,

ceremonies, and traditional ways of life.

• Native communities’ vulnerabilities and lack of

capacity to adapt to climate change are exacerbated

by land use policies, political marginalization, legal

issues associated with tribal water rights, and poor

socioeconomic conditions.

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Percent change from 2005 to 2060 in projected withdrawals assuming no change in climate (left) and continued growth in heat-trapping gas emissions (A2 4 scenario, right). The effects of climate change, primarily associated with increasing temperatures, are projected to significantly increase water demand across most of the U.S. (Foti et al. 2012).

Key Message 3:

• Declining sea ice in Alaska is causing significant

impacts to Native communities, including

increasingly risky travel and hunting conditions,

damage and/or loss of homes and settlements, food

insecurity from changing availability of wild food

sources, and socioeconomic and health impacts

from loss of cultures, traditional knowledge, and

homelands.

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NCADAC ES Meeting 32

Key Message 4:

• Alaska Native communities are increasingly exposed

to health and livelihood hazards from permafrost

thawing and increasing temperatures, which are

causing damage to roads, water supply and

sanitation systems, homes, schools, ice cellars, and

ice roads, and threatening traditional lifestyles.

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Key Message 5:

• Accelerated sea level rise, erosion, permafrost thaw,

and/or increased intensity of weather events are

forcing relocation of entire tribal and indigenous

communities in Alaska, Louisiana, the Pacific

Islands and other coastal locations. These

relocations and the lack of governance mechanisms

or funding to support them are causing loss of

community and culture, health impacts, and

economic decline, further exacerbating tribal

impoverishment.

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Photos from 2005 show 21 infrastructure damage from coastal erosion in Shishmaref, Alaska. Photographs by Tony Weyiouanna and Gary Braasch.

NCADAC ES Meeting 37

Sustained Assessment Recommendations:

Climate Impacts on Tribal Lands and Resources

Engage indigenous populations in the Climate Assessment Process • Townhall Meetings • Technical Inputs • Synthesis of new supplemental reports

Identify, support and Task existing tribal entities with Climate Assessment Activities • Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) • Alaska Native Science Commission (ANSC) • Pacific Northwest Climate Change Network (PNWCCN) • Our Natural Resources (ONR) • National Tribal Environmental Council (NTEC) • Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group (IPCCWG) • Others

Global Change Information System (GCIS) and NCAnet

Anne Waple

www.globalchange.gov

US Global Change Research Program &

Second Nature

Global Change Information System (GCIS)

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Vision: A unified web-based source of authoritative, accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by decision makers, scientists, and the public. • Globalchange.gov web ‘site’.

– Engaging, relevant, accessible, simple

• Structured Data Server “Back-End” – Capture, Identify, Organize, Present and Maintain metadata

about authoritative Global Change Content Elements from across the Global Change Research Program

Building the GCIS

• NCA has a well-defined, limited scope we can focus on in the short term.

• The broader GCIS vision requires increasing involvement to integrate global change information from across the program, Government, and beyond.

• Core Principal: Incorporate existing, successful enterprises and mechanisms where possible and appropriate

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GCIS Imperative and Innovation • Improved provenance and traceability for the NCA is

necessary independent of the GCIS. More transparency is required of the scientific enterprise than ever before

• GCIS is facilitating this for NCA3, but helping to build the culture and system for greater success for NCA4 and other efforts. – Requires a sustained effort and approach. – For NCA3, we will show early, but not complete, success

• Early in both cultural change and adoption of standards, but using standards being widely accepted as the way to structure information

• GCIS hopes to be transformative for the scientific enterprise in providing more usable and systematic processes, incorporating transparency as a central theme

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NCA links to GCIS entities

NCA 2013 Draft, Chapter 1 – Executive Summary (v. 11 Jan 2013) Figure 1.2: Sea Level Rise: Past, Present, Future

http://nca2013.globalchange.gov/executive_summary/fig1.2

http://globalchange.gov/dataset/GMSLTRS

4 Data Source (s) - Dataset #3 (green time series):

Producer:

Publication:

Nerem, R.S., D.P. Chambers, C. Choe, and G.T. Mitchum, 2010: Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Marine Geodesy, 33, 435-446 doi: 10.1080/01490419.2010.491031

http://globalchange.gov/instrument/TOPEX

http://globalchange.gov/instrument/JASON-1

Instrument: Person: http://globalchange.gov/person/Nerem_R_S

http://globalchange.gov/person/Chambers_D_P

http://globalchange.gov/person/Choe_C

http://globalchange.gov/person/Mitchum_G_T

http://globalchange.gov/agency/CU_Sea_Level_Research_Group

University of Colorado CU Sea Level Research Group

Source: Josh Willis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

http://globalchange.gov/publication/doi/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031

Where did this figure come from? Why should I trust it?

NCAnet: Partners in Assessment

• 80+ organizations extend the NCA process and products beyond the federal government and are active partners in the sustained assessment process

• Professional societies, Academic institutions and consortia, Non-governmental organizations, Local and state government departments, Private sector

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Online at:

http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov

• List of partners’ NCA-related activities

• Monthly conversations among existing partners

• “Affinity groups” model for collaboration on activities

NCAnet: Partners in Assessment Benefits for Partners:

• Tailored access to the NCA process and products and organization

• Point of contact within NCA staff for questions, concerns, and comments about participation

• Create and sustain relationships with other organizations interested in the NCA and climate change

• Collaborate on climate-related activities and learn about new methods for engagement

• Share ideas, wisdom, and best practices within and across disciplines

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NCAnet groups are building:

• Relevant technical input – Papers and reviews

– Community case studies

– Data, topical reports, interpretation

• Assessment Capacity – Workshops

– Stakeholder analyses

– Community dialog

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Anne Waple: Holds appointments jointly with the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), helping to manage the Global Change Information System, and for Second Nature developing adaptation-focused activities

Paul Fleming, Paul Fleming, Climate Resiliency Group for the Seattle Public Utilities, is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee, Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report’s Water Resources Chapter and the Special Report on a Sustained Assessment, and a Lead Author on the Draft Report’s Adaptation Chapter.

Dr. T. M. Bull Bennett, President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee. is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee and Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report's Chapter on Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources .

Second Nature's mission is to create a sustainable society by

transforming higher education

Sarah Brylinsky, Director of Climate Resilience & Educational Programs

(sbrylinsky@secondnature.org)

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• A Sustained Climate Assessment is aimed at

supporting decision-making across the nation

• The Global Climate Information System and the

National Climate Assessment Network are ongoing NCA

activities

• Good for cities if it leverages the local knowledge and

experience at the local level

• Good for Tribes if the tribes can be engaged and

supported

• Second Nature is leading higher education institutions

in using the National Climate Assessment and other

tools to prepare for climate impacts, and become hubs

for resilience in their local communities

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