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Creating a Long-Term Vision:
The Sustained Climate Assessment
April 24, 2013
Moderator: Jim Buizer
Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona
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800.552.8380 www.antiochne.edu
Socially Relevant,
Practice-Oriented Graduate Study
• MBA in Sustainability • MS & PhD in Environmental Studies • Sustainable Development & Climate Change (A Professional Science Master’s Degree)
• MEd in Educating for Sustainability • Resource Management and Conservation • Environmental Education or Science Teaching • Advocacy, Conservation Biology, and more
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Jim Buizer, NCADAC Executive Secretariat member and Convening Lead Author of the Sustained Assessment Special Report, is the Director of the Climate Adaptation and International Development Program in the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona, where he also holds an appointment as Professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment.
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• Introduction to the Panel: Jim Buizer
• Panel Presentations Paul Fleming: Seattle Public Utilities, “Value of a Sustained National
Climate Assessment – the Local Government Perspective“ Bull Bennett: President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; National
Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee. , "Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – the Tribal Nation Perspective“
Anne Waple: US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and Second Nature, “Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – How to Engage”
• Audience Questions: Send your questions through the chat box
• Summary Points
• Thank you! Please fill out the audience survey.
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Anne Waple: Holds appointments jointly with the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), helping to manage the Global Change Information System, and for Second Nature developing adaptation-focused activities
Paul Fleming, Paul Fleming, Climate Resiliency Group for the Seattle Public Utilities, is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee, Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report’s Water Resources Chapter and the Special Report on a Sustained Assessment, and a Lead Author on the Draft Report’s Adaptation Chapter.
Dr. T. M. Bull Bennett, President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee and Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report's Chapter on Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources .
James L. Buizer National Climate Assessment
Development & Advisory Committee
University of Arizona April 24, 2013
US National Climate Assessment
Global Change Research Act (1990) Mandate:
“To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”
13 Federal Departments & Agencies + Executive Office of the President
National Climate Assessment: GCRA (1990), Section 106
…not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which –
• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;
• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and
• analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.
A Sustained National Climate Assessment
• Creating and sustaining the capacity to conduct and use assessments is an essential part of the NCA process
• The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) is charged with both producing a synthesis assessment report and providing advice on the sustained process
A Sustained Climate Assessment
• Vision: “Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States.”
Sustained Assessment Foundational Elements and Special Reports
• Foundational Elements – Scenario development
– Indicators
– Vulnerability Assessments
– Valuation
• Special topics Reports (e.g.) – Food security
– International context
– Water and drought
– Large biophysical regions
Value of a Sustained National Climate Assessment – the Local Government Perspective
Paul Fleming, [email protected]
Climate Resiliency Group
Seattle Public Utilities
Chair, Water Utility Climate Alliance
Security & Sustainability Forum
The Long Term Vision: Developing a Sustained Climate Assessment
April 24, 2013
SPU’s Climate Program
Urban Drainage
Water Supply
Sea Level Rise
Snowpack
Precipitation Water quality/turbidity
Forest fires
Building Adaptive Capacity
• Enhance knowledge by engaging the science
• Assess impacts and vulnerabilities
• Establish collaborative partnerships
• Strengthen institutions and people
• Mainstream adaptation & mitigation into decision-making
Sustained Assessment Vision
“Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the
United States.”
Leverage Existing Efforts Seattle
Public Utilities (Chair)
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Metropolitan Water
District of
So. California
San Diego County Water Authority
Southern Nevada Water Authority Denver
Water
Portland Water Bureau
New York City Department of
Environmental Protection
Tampa Bay Water (Vice Chair)
Central Arizona Project
Slide created by David Behar, SFPUC
Mission: The Water Utility Climate Alliances provides leadership in assessing and adapting to the potential effects of climate change through collaborative action. We seek to enhance the usefulness of climate science for the adaptation community and improve water management decision-making in the face of climate uncertainty.
Recognize Local Challenges
Carmin, JoAnn, Nikhil Nadkami, and Christopher Rhie. 2012. Progress and Challenges in Urban Climate Adaptation Planning: Results of a Global Survey. Cambridge, MA: MIT
Segmentation, Differentiation and Harmonization • Products and processes that speak to
and support multiple audiences – qualitative, spatially coarse narratives
– quantitative data
– advancements in decision support methods
• Products and processes that coalesce thinking across agencies or sectors – Special Reports
– Urban Systems, Infrastructure and Vulnerability
Incorporate climate change into decision making
Thank You
The Sustained Assessment:
Impacts of Climate Change on
Tribal, Indigenous, and Native
Lands and Resources
T. M. Bull Bennett PhD
National Climate Sustained Assessment Webinar
April 24, 2013
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• Historically underrepresented in Climate Assessment Process
• Equivalent to 5th Largest State in US • Climate impacts relevant across all sectors • Limited resources make Indigenous
populations most vulnerable
NCADAC ES Meeting 26
Key Message 1:
• Climate change related impacts, such as increased
frequency and intensity of wildfires, higher
temperatures, ecosystem changes, ocean
acidification, forest loss and habitat damage, are
threatening Native American and Alaska Native
access to traditional foods such as salmon,
shellfish, wild and cultivated crops, and marine
mammals, which have provided sustenance as well
as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community
health for countless generations
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Key Message 2:
• A significant decrease in water quality and quantity
caused by a variety of factors including climate
change, is affecting Native Americans’ and Alaska
Natives’ drinking water supplies, food, cultures,
ceremonies, and traditional ways of life.
• Native communities’ vulnerabilities and lack of
capacity to adapt to climate change are exacerbated
by land use policies, political marginalization, legal
issues associated with tribal water rights, and poor
socioeconomic conditions.
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Percent change from 2005 to 2060 in projected withdrawals assuming no change in climate (left) and continued growth in heat-trapping gas emissions (A2 4 scenario, right). The effects of climate change, primarily associated with increasing temperatures, are projected to significantly increase water demand across most of the U.S. (Foti et al. 2012).
Key Message 3:
• Declining sea ice in Alaska is causing significant
impacts to Native communities, including
increasingly risky travel and hunting conditions,
damage and/or loss of homes and settlements, food
insecurity from changing availability of wild food
sources, and socioeconomic and health impacts
from loss of cultures, traditional knowledge, and
homelands.
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NCADAC ES Meeting 32
Key Message 4:
• Alaska Native communities are increasingly exposed
to health and livelihood hazards from permafrost
thawing and increasing temperatures, which are
causing damage to roads, water supply and
sanitation systems, homes, schools, ice cellars, and
ice roads, and threatening traditional lifestyles.
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Key Message 5:
• Accelerated sea level rise, erosion, permafrost thaw,
and/or increased intensity of weather events are
forcing relocation of entire tribal and indigenous
communities in Alaska, Louisiana, the Pacific
Islands and other coastal locations. These
relocations and the lack of governance mechanisms
or funding to support them are causing loss of
community and culture, health impacts, and
economic decline, further exacerbating tribal
impoverishment.
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Photos from 2005 show 21 infrastructure damage from coastal erosion in Shishmaref, Alaska. Photographs by Tony Weyiouanna and Gary Braasch.
NCADAC ES Meeting 37
Sustained Assessment Recommendations:
Climate Impacts on Tribal Lands and Resources
Engage indigenous populations in the Climate Assessment Process • Townhall Meetings • Technical Inputs • Synthesis of new supplemental reports
Identify, support and Task existing tribal entities with Climate Assessment Activities • Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) • Alaska Native Science Commission (ANSC) • Pacific Northwest Climate Change Network (PNWCCN) • Our Natural Resources (ONR) • National Tribal Environmental Council (NTEC) • Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group (IPCCWG) • Others
Global Change Information System (GCIS) and NCAnet
Anne Waple
www.globalchange.gov
US Global Change Research Program &
Second Nature
Global Change Information System (GCIS)
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Vision: A unified web-based source of authoritative, accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by decision makers, scientists, and the public. • Globalchange.gov web ‘site’.
– Engaging, relevant, accessible, simple
• Structured Data Server “Back-End” – Capture, Identify, Organize, Present and Maintain metadata
about authoritative Global Change Content Elements from across the Global Change Research Program
Building the GCIS
• NCA has a well-defined, limited scope we can focus on in the short term.
• The broader GCIS vision requires increasing involvement to integrate global change information from across the program, Government, and beyond.
• Core Principal: Incorporate existing, successful enterprises and mechanisms where possible and appropriate
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GCIS Imperative and Innovation • Improved provenance and traceability for the NCA is
necessary independent of the GCIS. More transparency is required of the scientific enterprise than ever before
• GCIS is facilitating this for NCA3, but helping to build the culture and system for greater success for NCA4 and other efforts. – Requires a sustained effort and approach. – For NCA3, we will show early, but not complete, success
• Early in both cultural change and adoption of standards, but using standards being widely accepted as the way to structure information
• GCIS hopes to be transformative for the scientific enterprise in providing more usable and systematic processes, incorporating transparency as a central theme
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NCA links to GCIS entities
NCA 2013 Draft, Chapter 1 – Executive Summary (v. 11 Jan 2013) Figure 1.2: Sea Level Rise: Past, Present, Future
http://nca2013.globalchange.gov/executive_summary/fig1.2
http://globalchange.gov/dataset/GMSLTRS
4 Data Source (s) - Dataset #3 (green time series):
Producer:
Publication:
Nerem, R.S., D.P. Chambers, C. Choe, and G.T. Mitchum, 2010: Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Marine Geodesy, 33, 435-446 doi: 10.1080/01490419.2010.491031
http://globalchange.gov/instrument/TOPEX
http://globalchange.gov/instrument/JASON-1
Instrument: Person: http://globalchange.gov/person/Nerem_R_S
http://globalchange.gov/person/Chambers_D_P
http://globalchange.gov/person/Choe_C
http://globalchange.gov/person/Mitchum_G_T
http://globalchange.gov/agency/CU_Sea_Level_Research_Group
University of Colorado CU Sea Level Research Group
Source: Josh Willis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
http://globalchange.gov/publication/doi/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031
Where did this figure come from? Why should I trust it?
NCAnet: Partners in Assessment
• 80+ organizations extend the NCA process and products beyond the federal government and are active partners in the sustained assessment process
• Professional societies, Academic institutions and consortia, Non-governmental organizations, Local and state government departments, Private sector
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Online at:
http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov
• List of partners’ NCA-related activities
• Monthly conversations among existing partners
• “Affinity groups” model for collaboration on activities
NCAnet: Partners in Assessment Benefits for Partners:
• Tailored access to the NCA process and products and organization
• Point of contact within NCA staff for questions, concerns, and comments about participation
• Create and sustain relationships with other organizations interested in the NCA and climate change
• Collaborate on climate-related activities and learn about new methods for engagement
• Share ideas, wisdom, and best practices within and across disciplines
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NCAnet groups are building:
• Relevant technical input – Papers and reviews
– Community case studies
– Data, topical reports, interpretation
• Assessment Capacity – Workshops
– Stakeholder analyses
– Community dialog
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Anne Waple: Holds appointments jointly with the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), helping to manage the Global Change Information System, and for Second Nature developing adaptation-focused activities
Paul Fleming, Paul Fleming, Climate Resiliency Group for the Seattle Public Utilities, is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee, Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report’s Water Resources Chapter and the Special Report on a Sustained Assessment, and a Lead Author on the Draft Report’s Adaptation Chapter.
Dr. T. M. Bull Bennett, President and CEO, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC; National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee. is a Member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee and Convening Lead Author of the Draft Report's Chapter on Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources .
Second Nature's mission is to create a sustainable society by
transforming higher education
Sarah Brylinsky, Director of Climate Resilience & Educational Programs
Endowments, Pensions, and Climate Change Conference
May 21st, 2013 Washington D.C. or via webcast
Developing Strategies that Mitigate Risk, Seize Opportunity, and Support
Sustainable Portfolios
Adapting to Climate Impacts, Webinar Series for Higher Education
September – December 2013
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• A Sustained Climate Assessment is aimed at
supporting decision-making across the nation
• The Global Climate Information System and the
National Climate Assessment Network are ongoing NCA
activities
• Good for cities if it leverages the local knowledge and
experience at the local level
• Good for Tribes if the tribes can be engaged and
supported
• Second Nature is leading higher education institutions
in using the National Climate Assessment and other
tools to prepare for climate impacts, and become hubs
for resilience in their local communities
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