Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook

Colorado’s 2003 Moisture Outlook

Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr.Colorado Climate CenterPrepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss

http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

HowHow we got into this drought! we got into this drought!

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1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Month

Pre

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(in

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Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep)

Through 1999

Through 1999

Reservoir StorageReservoir Storage

Provisional Data Provided by NRCS

Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado

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40

60

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Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Feb 1. 2003

Date

Pe

rce

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ge

Colorado Statewide Annual Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002Temperatures through 2002

From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

Colorado Average Annual Temperature(1895 - 2002)

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50

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Te

mp

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ture

(d

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Fort Collins Summer Average Temperature(June - August), 1889-2002

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70

72

74

18891899

19091919

19291939

19491959

19691979

19891999

Years

Te

mp

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ture

(D

eg

. F)

Summer Total 7 year running mean

Summer Temperatures Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, 1889-2002Fort Collins, 1889-2002

Where do we stand now?Where do we stand now?

Oct 2002 - Jan 2003 Precipitation as Oct 2002 - Jan 2003 Precipitation as percent of averagepercent of average

Temperature - Water Year 2003Temperature - Water Year 2003

-6

-4

-2

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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

De

pa

rtu

re f

rom

av

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, de

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e F

Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003

UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTELUPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003

HOOSIER PASS SNOTELHOOSIER PASS SNOTEL

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003

JOE WRIGHT SNOTELJOE WRIGHT SNOTEL

Grand Lake 1 NW2003 Water Year

(through October '02-January '03)

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OCTNOV

DECJA

NFEB

MAR

APRM

AYJU

NJU

LAUG

SEP

Months

Acc

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ted

Pre

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(I

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30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1984Min Year - 2002 Period of Record Average - 1941 - 20022003 Water Year Accumulated

Akron 4E 2003 Water Year

(through October '02-January'03)

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OCTNOV

DECJA

NFEB

MAR

APRM

AYJU

NJU

LAUG

SEP

Months

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late

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30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915Min Year - 1966 Period of Record Average - 1906 - 20022003 Water Year Accumulated

What May Be Ahead in 2003What May Be Ahead in 2003

PrecipitationPrecipitationMonthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites

in the South Platte Basin

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Month

Pre

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itat

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(in

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)

Hoosier Pass Denver Stapleton Sterling

Monthly Average Precipitation for1971-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

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inc

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s)

Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita

PrecipitationPrecipitation

A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction.

Greeley Daily Accumulated Precipitation

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecDay

Pre

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he

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Accumulated Daily 1999 2000 2001 2002

What Happens NextWhat Happens Next

We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years.

Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year.

Entire State rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!

Our Path For 2003Our Path For 2003

Greeley, Colorado Monthly Accumulated Precipitation for Water Year 2003

vs. 30-year Averages (1971-2000).

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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

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30-yr Acc WY2003 Acc

Positive IndicatorsPositive Indicators

Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover

Negative IndicatorsNegative Indicators

Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine

Current IndicatorsCurrent Indicators

El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February not a good indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year

(Exceptions: SE CO)

TemperatureTemperatureMarch-May 2003March-May 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationPrecipitationMarch-May 2003March-May 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Temperature Temperature June-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationPrecipitationJune-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Breaking This Drought Breaking This Drought Will Be ToughWill Be Tough

A wet spring is essential to begin that process.

COAGMETCOAGMETWeather Data for AgricultureWeather Data for Agriculture

Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of:

Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration

http://www.COAGMET.com

Colorado Climate MagazineColorado Climate Magazine

Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic

$15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

CoCo RaHSRaHSYOU CAN HELP!

http://www.cocorahs.com

Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University

Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading

http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on “Drought”

then click on “Presentations”