Climate Change in New Hampshire: Connecting the …Climate Change in New Hampshire: Connecting the...

Climate Change in New Hampshire: Connecting the Dots

Sherry Godlewski

NH Department of Environmental Services

Deerfield, April 2007 Deerfield, March 13, 2018 Deerfield, October 29, 2017

Belmont Conservation Commission April 4, 2018

Harvey

Irma Maria

Irma Katia Jose

September 7, 2017

Emergency Management Publication Fall 2017

NH October Storm At its peak, this storm caused fourth-largest storm-related power outage in NH history

Hurricanes, wildfires, flooding made 2017 the most costly U.S. disaster year on record

$306 billion

$125

$90 $50

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/1/201802?products[

Grayson - January 4 “blizzard, bombogenesis ”

Skylar – March 13

Riley - March 2-3 3 Nor’easters in 11 days!

March 7-8

Hampton Island Path

Rt 1B between Portsmouth and New Castle

Hampton Town officials survey damage

North Beach

March 5 Local Impacts

More CO2 = More Extreme Weather

• Scientists now link extreme weather events to carbon dioxide in the air from the burning of fossil fuels.

• More atmospheric CO2 has boosted the odds of extreme heat, extreme cold, drought, & punishing rain/snow storms….

The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/21852

NH Presidentially-Declared Storm-Related Disasters

• 1953-2003 (50 Years) – 15 Declared Disasters

• 2003-2017 (14 Years) – 19 Declared Disasters

• 1 Hurricane

• 1 Tropical Storm

• 14 Severe Storms

– 1 Fall Snow Storm

• 3 Winter Storms

Source: FEMA.gov

Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NH, May 2006

Federal Disasters Expenditures in New Hampshire

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1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

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1998: Ice Storm 2005: Alstead/Keene Floods (Oct) 2006: Mother’s Day Flood (May) 2007: Patriots Day Flood (April) 2008: Tornado; Floods; Ice Storm 2010: Windstorm; Floods 2011: Irene 2012: Flooding; Sandy 2013: Severe winter storm & Flooding 2015: Severe winter storm

Weather and Climate

Weather – the set of conditions at any given point in time

– today, tomorrow, this week

Climate - the average set of conditions over a period of decades

– 30 year averages

• Over the past 50 years, the average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history. • Burning of fossil fuels to for transportation is the largest source of heat-trapping pollution. Second is electricity generation

Global Warming Causes the Climate to Change

• Greenhouse gases trap heat – Warming of our atmosphere causes warmer

overall temperatures

– Changes to water cycle (some more rain, some less rain)

– Warms oceans, Melts glaciers, Sea-level Rise

– Effects plant growth

• Industrial Revolution – Raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels

from 280 parts per million to 410 parts per million in the last 150 years

Measuring Carbon Dioxide

• Ice cores

• Ambient Monitoring

– Mauna Loa

collecting data since 1956

Petit et al., 1999

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CO 2

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record 410 ppm

Petit et al., 1999

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide & Temperature Record

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Warming Trends

2017 3rd warmest Records date back 138 years to 1880

Climate Change is Real

99% of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends are likely due to human activity

Climate Change is Already Occurring

“Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present”

National Climate Assessment 2014

Do nothing – Continue with business as usual

We Have a Choice

• Mitigation

– Reduce emissions of CO2 & other greenhouse gases

• Reduce our use of fossil fuels

• Adaptation

– Prepare for the current and future impacts

We Have a Choice

So what about our area?

Changing Seasonality

Increase in Precipitation

Amounts and Intensity – rain & snow

Source: National Climate Assessment 2014 1950-2010

Change (%)

Drought 2016

Sea-level Rise

Portsmouth, NH Hampton, NH

King Tide

Groundwater will rise with sea level

• Groundwater rise will extend further inland than sea level rise • From 1-7ft of ground water rise is predicted at ~2 mi from the coast

• The amount of groundwater rise is not uniform and

linear with distance from the coast • Depends on

– local hydrogeology, – proximity of streams or wetlands, – distance from the coast, – groundwater pumping.

• Will impact roads, underground storage tanks, drinking water wells, landfills…

Knott J., M. Elshaer, J. Sias Daniel, J.M. Jacobs, P. Kirshen 2017

Seacoast

Local & Regional Climate Assessments

Southern NH Northern NH

Observed Climate Patterns and How This Impacts Us

• Increase in precipitation – rain & snow

• Increase in average temperature

• Increase in extreme weather

• Changing seasonality

• Drought

• Sea-level rise – Portsmouth’s sea level has risen 6” since 1926

– Increases in ground water levels

CSNE 2014 & Knott 2017

Precipitation

• Increases in the frequency and

severity of extreme weather events

• Increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, coastal storm surge – Food & water contamination

– Increase in shellfish bed closures

– Vector borne diseases (EEE, WNV)

– Impacts to transfer stations, water & waste water systems

Increasing Temperature

• Warmer average temperatures – hotter days – Increases in tick born diseases

• More frequent and longer heat waves – Heat stroke and dehydration – Heat related illnesses and deaths

• Increase in concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants – More cyanobacteria warnings – More air quality action days

• Less winter snow – Less snowmobiling, skiing & skating

If we do nothing & keep to business as usual… Our summer climate will feel like N.C.!

Frumhoff 2007

Sneezy and Itchy

Increases in pollens & other allergens • Longer allergy season

• Observed increase of 13 to 27 days in the ragweed pollen season in the northeast

Poison Ivy loves CO2

• grows bigger • has more toxic oils • more abundant and more irritating

Ziska, 2011

Loss of Electricity

• Lack of heating on cold days

• Lack of cooling on hot days

• Carbon monoxide poisoning

• Interrupts communication & utilities

– Rural areas - no flushing

- no drinking water

Ecological Impacts

• Terrestrial species – Moose – winter ticks; warming – Birds – food source timing;

erratic weather

• Ocean species – Cod – moving north due to warming – Lobster – moved north due to warming – Shrimp – population collapse due to warming – Clams/oysters – more contaminated due to increased rain

& pollutants; shells impacted by ocean acidification

• Natural system economies (i.e. maple syrup, ski industry, snow mobiling, tourism, agriculture…)

Changes in our White Mountain Region

Thanks to:

• Mount Washington Observatory for hourly & daily weather observations since 1932.

• Marina Plopeanu Plymouth State University

• Georgia Murray Appalachian Mountain Club

Monitoring Stations 1. First Connecticut Lake 2. Errol 3. York Pond 4. Gorham 5. Bethlehem 6. Mount Washington 7. Pinkham Notch 8. Hubbard Brook (Stations 2 & 17) Map created using Google My Maps.

Winter Impacts

Conclusions

• Long term snow records from northern New Hampshire show significant trends largely indicating: – shorter duration of snow cover (continuous cover of

at least 1”), – shorter overall snow season (first snow is later and

last snow is earlier; including trace amounts) and – less snow depth

This supports concerns that climate change is altering winter in a region that relies on snow

What can we do?

Mitigation

Purchase efficient fleet and personal vehicles

Mitigation

Make our buildings and homes more efficient and utilize alternative energy

Mitigation

Insulate our homes, schools and businesses

Mitigation

• Use water efficiently

• Waste less food

Energy Use … and the obvious

• Shut stuff off!

• Unplug stuff not in use!

• Turning off computers and monitors (and other electric items) saves energy and

reduces pollution! 20% of energy is wasted The US spends $40 billion dollars each

year on wasted energy Phantom Energy!

Monitor > than 20 mins Both > than 2 hours

Purchase

Phantom Energy Phact

Phantom Load fact: The consumption from phantom loads of electricity in the United States is said to equal the electricity use of Greece, Peru, and Vietnam combined. When an appliance is not in use, unplug it at the wall.

"Energy savers are the real stars," The Christchurch Press, September 11, 2001

Adaptation is Key in Planning for Climate Change

We have four adaptation options:

1. Take no action or “business as usual” scenario

52

2. “Protect and fortify” built infrastructure

Adaptation

Adaptation

3. “Accommodate” using natural systems (buffers)

and alternative construction techniques

4. “Retreat” by relocating or removing built infrastructure from highly vulnerable areas and those damaged repeatedly

Adaptation

Is There Anyone Working On This?

NH Coastal Adaptation Workgroup

http://www.nhcaw.org/

Upcoming workshop on Groundwater rise April 26

Upper Valley Adaptation Workgroup

http://uvaw.uvlsrpc.org/

Upcoming workshop on Forest and Farm Impacts at DHMC on May 15

YES! Regional Workgroups

Local Energy Solutions Workgroup

http://www.nhenergy.org/

State Agencies

State Government Energy Committee

• Established by Executive

Order 216-3

• Reporting Requirements

State Environmental Resilience Group

• Volunteer – no formal

Executive Order

What Can We Expect?

April, May, June 2018 Temperature Outlook

April, May, June 2018 Precipitation Outlook

Extreme Heat

Average number of days over 90 degrees per year

Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE

Future Growing Season

The growing season is projected to lengthen by about two weeks (lower

emission scenario) or five weeks (higher emission scenario)

Hotter temperatures, reduced chilling hours, enhanced evapotranspiration, and more extreme precipitation will likely result in a decrease in crop yields.

Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE

Future Precipitation Annual precipitation is projected to increase 17 to 20% (both

emission scenarios) by the end of the century Increase in extreme precipitation events, results in excessive runoff, flooding, damage to critical infrastructure (buildings, roads, dams, bridges,

culverts), increased erosion & degradation of water quality

Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE

Snow Covered Days

Historically we had 105 days per year with snow cover By the end of the century (high emissions scenario),

we could have only 52 days

Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE

Sea Level Rise

Projections:

0.6 – 2.0 ft. by 2050

1.6 – 6.6 ft. by 2100 NH Coastal Risk and Hazards Commission - 2016

Exacerbating Issues

• Population increase – Climate refugees

• Development increases – more pavement

• Old infrastructure - undersized • More homes built in risky

areas • Federal funding decreases • Political climate • Other?

Already Adapting - “Yankee Ingenuity”

• Power companies trimming trees and limbs

• Maintaining & upgrading culverts when replacing

• On-going road/drainage

maintenance

• Ski areas have alpine slides, canopy tours & mountain biking

• Backup generators

Investments in Adaptation

It’s not a question of IF we’ll pay to adapt

It’s a question of WHEN we’ll pay

We can plan ahead & get where we want to go

Anticipatory Adaptation

We can incur damages, clean up the mess & live with the consequences

Reactionary Adaptation

River & Stream buffers

Help to Decrease : • storm water runoff • erosion • flooding

OR

$1.00

$4.00

Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council-National Institute of Building Sciences http://www.disaster-resource.com

2018 National Institute of Building Science https://www.nibs.org/

We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!

• 40 years ago – Smog

– Solution: Catalytic converters

– Smog reduced by 30% to 50%

We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!

• 35 years ago – Ozone layer destruction

– Solution: Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) phase out

– CFCs all but eliminated, ozone layer (slowly) rebounding

We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!

• 30 years ago – Acid Rain

– Solution: market-based program for regulating utility sulfur dioxide emissions

– Acid rain emissions cut by 50%; forests rebounding, lakes (slowly) rebounding

Connecting the Dots

• Climate change will cost taxpayers more than a half a trillion dollars this decade, and trillions more in the future unless we mitigate the impacts (Government Accountability Office)

• We cannot ignore the impact of climate change on our public health, our environment, and our economy.

• The lessons will continue to be taught until they are learned.

• We’ve got to connect the dots!

Working Together

• State Agencies

• Regional Workgroups

• Communities

• Conservation Groups

• Businesses

• Non-profits

• Schools

• Neighbors

• Shared voices

Thank You!

Sherry Godlewski

NH Department of Environmental Services

603-271-6801

Sherry.godlewski@des.nh.gov

Polar Vortex

Source: R. Barry & R. Chorley (2009). Atmosphere, Weather and Climate.