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Climate Change in New Hampshire: Connecting the Dots
Sherry Godlewski
NH Department of Environmental Services
Deerfield, April 2007 Deerfield, March 13, 2018 Deerfield, October 29, 2017
Belmont Conservation Commission April 4, 2018
Harvey
Irma Maria
Irma Katia Jose
September 7, 2017
Emergency Management Publication Fall 2017
NH October Storm At its peak, this storm caused fourth-largest storm-related power outage in NH history
Hurricanes, wildfires, flooding made 2017 the most costly U.S. disaster year on record
$306 billion
$125
$90 $50
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/1/201802?products[
Grayson - January 4 “blizzard, bombogenesis ”
Skylar – March 13
Riley - March 2-3 3 Nor’easters in 11 days!
March 7-8
Hampton Island Path
Rt 1B between Portsmouth and New Castle
Hampton Town officials survey damage
North Beach
March 5 Local Impacts
More CO2 = More Extreme Weather
• Scientists now link extreme weather events to carbon dioxide in the air from the burning of fossil fuels.
• More atmospheric CO2 has boosted the odds of extreme heat, extreme cold, drought, & punishing rain/snow storms….
The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/21852
NH Presidentially-Declared Storm-Related Disasters
• 1953-2003 (50 Years) – 15 Declared Disasters
• 2003-2017 (14 Years) – 19 Declared Disasters
• 1 Hurricane
• 1 Tropical Storm
• 14 Severe Storms
– 1 Fall Snow Storm
• 3 Winter Storms
Source: FEMA.gov
Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NH, May 2006
Federal Disasters Expenditures in New Hampshire
13 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
To
tal
Sto
rm-R
ela
ted
Da
ma
ge
(M
illi
on
s o
f D
oll
ars
[2
01
5])
1998: Ice Storm 2005: Alstead/Keene Floods (Oct) 2006: Mother’s Day Flood (May) 2007: Patriots Day Flood (April) 2008: Tornado; Floods; Ice Storm 2010: Windstorm; Floods 2011: Irene 2012: Flooding; Sandy 2013: Severe winter storm & Flooding 2015: Severe winter storm
Weather and Climate
Weather – the set of conditions at any given point in time
– today, tomorrow, this week
Climate - the average set of conditions over a period of decades
– 30 year averages
• Over the past 50 years, the average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history. • Burning of fossil fuels to for transportation is the largest source of heat-trapping pollution. Second is electricity generation
Global Warming Causes the Climate to Change
• Greenhouse gases trap heat – Warming of our atmosphere causes warmer
overall temperatures
– Changes to water cycle (some more rain, some less rain)
– Warms oceans, Melts glaciers, Sea-level Rise
– Effects plant growth
• Industrial Revolution – Raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
from 280 parts per million to 410 parts per million in the last 150 years
Measuring Carbon Dioxide
• Ice cores
• Ambient Monitoring
– Mauna Loa
collecting data since 1956
Petit et al., 1999
180
220
260
300
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Car
bo
n D
ioxi
de
(pp
mv
)
Years before 2000 AD
CO 2
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record 410 ppm
Petit et al., 1999
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide & Temperature Record
180
220
260
300
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
-10
-5
0
5
Car
bo
n D
ioxi
de
(pp
mv
)
Years before 2000 AD
Tem
per
atu
re (
o C
)
CO 2
Temperature
410 ppm
Warming Trends
2017 3rd warmest Records date back 138 years to 1880
Climate Change is Real
99% of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends are likely due to human activity
Climate Change is Already Occurring
“Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present”
National Climate Assessment 2014
Do nothing – Continue with business as usual
We Have a Choice
• Mitigation
– Reduce emissions of CO2 & other greenhouse gases
• Reduce our use of fossil fuels
• Adaptation
– Prepare for the current and future impacts
We Have a Choice
So what about our area?
Changing Seasonality
Increase in Precipitation
Amounts and Intensity – rain & snow
Source: National Climate Assessment 2014 1950-2010
Change (%)
Drought 2016
Sea-level Rise
Portsmouth, NH Hampton, NH
King Tide
Groundwater will rise with sea level
• Groundwater rise will extend further inland than sea level rise • From 1-7ft of ground water rise is predicted at ~2 mi from the coast
• The amount of groundwater rise is not uniform and
linear with distance from the coast • Depends on
– local hydrogeology, – proximity of streams or wetlands, – distance from the coast, – groundwater pumping.
• Will impact roads, underground storage tanks, drinking water wells, landfills…
Knott J., M. Elshaer, J. Sias Daniel, J.M. Jacobs, P. Kirshen 2017
Seacoast
Local & Regional Climate Assessments
Southern NH Northern NH
Observed Climate Patterns and How This Impacts Us
• Increase in precipitation – rain & snow
• Increase in average temperature
• Increase in extreme weather
• Changing seasonality
• Drought
• Sea-level rise – Portsmouth’s sea level has risen 6” since 1926
– Increases in ground water levels
CSNE 2014 & Knott 2017
Precipitation
• Increases in the frequency and
severity of extreme weather events
• Increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, coastal storm surge – Food & water contamination
– Increase in shellfish bed closures
– Vector borne diseases (EEE, WNV)
– Impacts to transfer stations, water & waste water systems
Increasing Temperature
• Warmer average temperatures – hotter days – Increases in tick born diseases
• More frequent and longer heat waves – Heat stroke and dehydration – Heat related illnesses and deaths
• Increase in concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants – More cyanobacteria warnings – More air quality action days
• Less winter snow – Less snowmobiling, skiing & skating
If we do nothing & keep to business as usual… Our summer climate will feel like N.C.!
Frumhoff 2007
Sneezy and Itchy
Increases in pollens & other allergens • Longer allergy season
• Observed increase of 13 to 27 days in the ragweed pollen season in the northeast
Poison Ivy loves CO2
• grows bigger • has more toxic oils • more abundant and more irritating
Ziska, 2011
Loss of Electricity
• Lack of heating on cold days
• Lack of cooling on hot days
• Carbon monoxide poisoning
• Interrupts communication & utilities
– Rural areas - no flushing
- no drinking water
Ecological Impacts
• Terrestrial species – Moose – winter ticks; warming – Birds – food source timing;
erratic weather
• Ocean species – Cod – moving north due to warming – Lobster – moved north due to warming – Shrimp – population collapse due to warming – Clams/oysters – more contaminated due to increased rain
& pollutants; shells impacted by ocean acidification
• Natural system economies (i.e. maple syrup, ski industry, snow mobiling, tourism, agriculture…)
Changes in our White Mountain Region
Thanks to:
• Mount Washington Observatory for hourly & daily weather observations since 1932.
• Marina Plopeanu Plymouth State University
• Georgia Murray Appalachian Mountain Club
Monitoring Stations 1. First Connecticut Lake 2. Errol 3. York Pond 4. Gorham 5. Bethlehem 6. Mount Washington 7. Pinkham Notch 8. Hubbard Brook (Stations 2 & 17) Map created using Google My Maps.
Winter Impacts
Conclusions
• Long term snow records from northern New Hampshire show significant trends largely indicating: – shorter duration of snow cover (continuous cover of
at least 1”), – shorter overall snow season (first snow is later and
last snow is earlier; including trace amounts) and – less snow depth
This supports concerns that climate change is altering winter in a region that relies on snow
What can we do?
Mitigation
Purchase efficient fleet and personal vehicles
Mitigation
Make our buildings and homes more efficient and utilize alternative energy
Mitigation
Insulate our homes, schools and businesses
Mitigation
• Use water efficiently
• Waste less food
Energy Use … and the obvious
• Shut stuff off!
• Unplug stuff not in use!
• Turning off computers and monitors (and other electric items) saves energy and
reduces pollution! 20% of energy is wasted The US spends $40 billion dollars each
year on wasted energy Phantom Energy!
Monitor > than 20 mins Both > than 2 hours
Purchase
Phantom Energy Phact
Phantom Load fact: The consumption from phantom loads of electricity in the United States is said to equal the electricity use of Greece, Peru, and Vietnam combined. When an appliance is not in use, unplug it at the wall.
"Energy savers are the real stars," The Christchurch Press, September 11, 2001
Adaptation is Key in Planning for Climate Change
We have four adaptation options:
1. Take no action or “business as usual” scenario
52
2. “Protect and fortify” built infrastructure
Adaptation
Adaptation
3. “Accommodate” using natural systems (buffers)
and alternative construction techniques
4. “Retreat” by relocating or removing built infrastructure from highly vulnerable areas and those damaged repeatedly
Adaptation
Is There Anyone Working On This?
NH Coastal Adaptation Workgroup
http://www.nhcaw.org/
Upcoming workshop on Groundwater rise April 26
Upper Valley Adaptation Workgroup
http://uvaw.uvlsrpc.org/
Upcoming workshop on Forest and Farm Impacts at DHMC on May 15
YES! Regional Workgroups
Local Energy Solutions Workgroup
http://www.nhenergy.org/
State Agencies
State Government Energy Committee
• Established by Executive
Order 216-3
• Reporting Requirements
State Environmental Resilience Group
• Volunteer – no formal
Executive Order
What Can We Expect?
April, May, June 2018 Temperature Outlook
April, May, June 2018 Precipitation Outlook
Extreme Heat
Average number of days over 90 degrees per year
Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE
Future Growing Season
The growing season is projected to lengthen by about two weeks (lower
emission scenario) or five weeks (higher emission scenario)
Hotter temperatures, reduced chilling hours, enhanced evapotranspiration, and more extreme precipitation will likely result in a decrease in crop yields.
Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE
Future Precipitation Annual precipitation is projected to increase 17 to 20% (both
emission scenarios) by the end of the century Increase in extreme precipitation events, results in excessive runoff, flooding, damage to critical infrastructure (buildings, roads, dams, bridges,
culverts), increased erosion & degradation of water quality
Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE
Snow Covered Days
Historically we had 105 days per year with snow cover By the end of the century (high emissions scenario),
we could have only 52 days
Climate Change in Southern NH - CSNE
Sea Level Rise
Projections:
0.6 – 2.0 ft. by 2050
1.6 – 6.6 ft. by 2100 NH Coastal Risk and Hazards Commission - 2016
Exacerbating Issues
• Population increase – Climate refugees
• Development increases – more pavement
• Old infrastructure - undersized • More homes built in risky
areas • Federal funding decreases • Political climate • Other?
Already Adapting - “Yankee Ingenuity”
• Power companies trimming trees and limbs
• Maintaining & upgrading culverts when replacing
• On-going road/drainage
maintenance
• Ski areas have alpine slides, canopy tours & mountain biking
• Backup generators
Investments in Adaptation
It’s not a question of IF we’ll pay to adapt
It’s a question of WHEN we’ll pay
We can plan ahead & get where we want to go
Anticipatory Adaptation
We can incur damages, clean up the mess & live with the consequences
Reactionary Adaptation
River & Stream buffers
Help to Decrease : • storm water runoff • erosion • flooding
OR
$1.00
$4.00
Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council-National Institute of Building Sciences http://www.disaster-resource.com
2018 National Institute of Building Science https://www.nibs.org/
We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!
• 40 years ago – Smog
– Solution: Catalytic converters
– Smog reduced by 30% to 50%
We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!
• 35 years ago – Ozone layer destruction
– Solution: Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) phase out
– CFCs all but eliminated, ozone layer (slowly) rebounding
We Have Met Environmental Challenges in the Past!
• 30 years ago – Acid Rain
– Solution: market-based program for regulating utility sulfur dioxide emissions
– Acid rain emissions cut by 50%; forests rebounding, lakes (slowly) rebounding
Connecting the Dots
• Climate change will cost taxpayers more than a half a trillion dollars this decade, and trillions more in the future unless we mitigate the impacts (Government Accountability Office)
• We cannot ignore the impact of climate change on our public health, our environment, and our economy.
• The lessons will continue to be taught until they are learned.
• We’ve got to connect the dots!
Working Together
• State Agencies
• Regional Workgroups
• Communities
• Conservation Groups
• Businesses
• Non-profits
• Schools
• Neighbors
• Shared voices
Polar Vortex
Source: R. Barry & R. Chorley (2009). Atmosphere, Weather and Climate.
