Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558

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ChartingThailand’sEconomy

MONTHLY

กนัยายน 2558

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Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, September 2015 (Thai)Publication Date: September 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 69

ansmitted in any se, without the

cannot be hat from both n to guarantee.

ased on any

questions and

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••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysisNote: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

1.05 –

5.0%5.4%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2003 2014

3.4% 10 2009

2012 6.5%

2013 2.8%

2014 0.7%

0.9% 1.0%

3.0%2.8%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Last 5 Quarters

Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis

1.06a – 2Q15

1.06b –

Hotel&Res

Construction

Financial

Transport

Other social

Health&Social

Private HH

Trading

Utilities

RealEstate

Education

PublicAdmin

Manufacture

Fishing

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Hotel&Res

Financial

Trading

Construction

RealEstate

Other social

Utilities

Health&Social

Education

PublicAdmin

Private HH

Fishing

Mining

Manufacture

Agriculture

Stat diff

2 2015

– 2Q15

Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis

1.08a – 2Q15

1.08b –

Note: (*) C = , I = I (capital) = I (inventory) =

G = , X = ( ), M = (

X (services)

I (capital)

M (services)

M (goods)

X (goods)

X (services)

Discrpncy

I (capital)

M (goods)

M (services)

I (Inventory)

X (goods)

– 2Q15

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••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

1.10 – (2000 = 100)

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

152.1161.1

174.6182.9

177.6 181.6 175.7167.7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2000 100

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1.11a –

% , . . 2015

1.11b –

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis

29.29.6

6.13.73.02.12.0

-0.2-2.4-2.5-2.8

-4.3-4.6-5.7-5.8-6.5-6.9-7.7

-11.0-17.8

PetroleumChemicalVehiclesPaper

Metal productsFood & Bev

TobaccoFurnitureApparel

Rubber&PlasticMachineries

MineralWood productsPrecision instru

LeatherElectricalTextiles

Basic MatTransport Equip

ElectronicOffice automate -

ChemicalElectricalElectronicVehicles

Metal productsApparel

Precision instruFood & Bev

PaperLeather

FurnitureRubber&Plastic

Basic MatPetroleum

MineralTextiles

Wood productsOffice automate

MachineriesTobacco

Transport Equip

, . . 2015

13.310.0

8.88.5

7.65.8

5.13.22.92.62.62.01.6

0.4-3.2-3.4

-8.4-10.3-10.5

-12.214.1

1% . .

1.12a –

1.12b –

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Rubber&PlasticElectronicTextiles

Wood productsElectricalFurnitureBasic Mat

Metal productsLeather

Office automateFood & Bev

Precision instruPaper

ChemicalVehicles

Transport EquipMachineries

MineralPetroleumTobaccoApparel

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

Normal

Seasonally adjusted

, . . 2015

89%83%

80%79%

78%74%

69%68%

66%64%

59%49%

48%47%

46%45%

43%42%

39%31%

1.13 –

Source: The Economist

Vietnam Aug

China Jul

Indonesia Jun

Malaysia Jun

Pakistan Jun

India Jun

Australia Q1

Japan Jun

US Jul

Euro Area Jun

South Korea Jun

Hong Kong Q1

Taiwan Jul

Brazil Jun

Philippines Jun

Russia Jul

Thailand Jul

Singapore Jul

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

1.14a – (2010 = 100)

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Non re

Non du

Semi du

Composite

Du80.0

( Nielsen’s

4b –

, . . 2015

sident

ervices

rables

1.15a – (2010 = 100)

Note: (*) figures are 1-month delayed

Domestic M(2010

Constructio

Import(201

DomesticSa

, . . 2015

Machinery sales*prices, Baht)

Composite Index

onstruction Areapermitted (sqm)

on Material SalesIndex

of Capital Goods0 prices, Baht)

c Commercial Carales Index

Source: BOT

5.14 –

12,899

14,416

12,728

08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY0

10,000

12,000

14,000

(Foreign Direct

Investment : FDI)

(Equity capital)

5.15 – .

Source: Board of Investment

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

2014/5M 2015/5M

5.16 – .

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

49%58% 54%

11%21% 2

11FY 12FY 13FY 14

Europe

ASEANANIEsUSA

Others

29%38%

7% 21%

25%34%

4FY 2015/5M

1.16a –

% , 6 2015

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

Condo unit registered

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

Value of land transaction

, . . 2015

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

5.03a –

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Export Import Tradebalance

– = -20

-7.4% -4.7%-3.4%

ort Import Trade balance– =

% -8.6%

3.4% 7 2015

5.05a –

% , 7 2015

5.05b –

-3.412.4

6.43.72.92.52.40.90.20.1

-0.5-3.5

-5.9-6.7-6.7-7.0-8.9-9.0-9.6

-14.3-14.4

-19.2-20.3

-27.7-52.0

Total exportOptical instru

JewelleryPhoto instruMachinery

Other manufacturingAutomotive

ForestryMetal

ElectricalElectronics

Agro productsApparelsFootware

AgricultureToiletriesFurnitureAircrafts

Petro chemicalOther export

FisheryPetroleumChemicalsRe exports

Mining

Total exportAutomotiveMachineryJewellery

Optical instruOther manufacturing

Photo instruMetal

ForestryElectricalFootware

Re exportsFurniture

ElectronicsToiletriesAircraftsFishery

ApparelsMining

Other exportAgro products

AgriculturePetro chemical

ChemicalsPetroleum

3.4% 7 2015

-3.40.3

0.20.20.10.10.00.00.00.0

0.00.00.0

-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

-0.4-0.5-0.6

-0.8-0.9

5.07a – 5

23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1

20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3

11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0

11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3

10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2

18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5

East Asiaex-Japan

Middle East

Rest of the world

100% = (Trillion)6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3

Rest of

East Asi

5.07b –

, 7 2015

-13.8%

f the world

a ex Japan

Middle East

7% 7 2015

5.09a –

% , 7 2015

5.09b –

Total import

Others

Consumer goods

Intermediate Non fuel

Capital goods

Intermediate Fuel

Total imp

Consumer goo

Intermediate Non f

Capital goo

Intermediate F

7% 7 2015

5.08 –

7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0

17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8

44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7

20.9 21.3 24.4 23.3

10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY

Others

Capital goods

Consumer goods

100% = 5.9 7.0

Intermediate - Fuel

Intermediate –Non-Fuel

7.8 7.7

8.7 9.6

20.8 15.8

38.3 40.7

24.2 25.1

8.1 8.8

14FY 15/7MO

(Trillion)7.4 4.0

Source: Department of Tourism

5.18 –

CAGR10.6%

10.011.7 11.5

14.5 14.115.9

26.524.8

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

5.19a 5.19b

7 2015,

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis

51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8

27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8

5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9

EastAsia

Europe

Americas

Rest ofworld

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Vietnam

Singapore

2,458.2

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

2.08 –

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

1.38 1.381.49

0.68 0.660.72

05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0

2.09 –

Thailand Jun

Singapore Q2

Malaysia Jun

Hong Kong Jul

Japan Jul

Vietnam 2014

Taiwan Jul

South Korea Jul

China Q2

India 2013

US Jul

Russia Jul

Indonesia Q1

Pakistan 2014

Australia Jul

Philippines Q2

Brazil Jul

Euro Area Jun

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

3.01a – . 3.01b –

3.01c – . 3.01d –

Source: Bank of Thailand Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Sep-14 Aug-15

10.00%

Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-14

Sep-14

1 ) 12

BIBOR*

10.00%

Aug-15

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

D J F M A M J J A

S O N D

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

1.18a – * 1.18b

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Note: (*) Below is tIndex = 1Index > 1Index < 1

49.452.4

45.250.3 49.1

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

Better

88.9 87

Feb-15 Mar

Better

– **

the interpretation of the index:00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

7.7 86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0

r-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

(*) 0-100

1.17 –

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-150

Overall On job

Better

On future income

Better

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

1.03a –

2015, %

1.03b –

2016, %

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15

Forecast as of, month ending

FPOThe Economist

ForecaJ-15 F-15 M-1

(BOT) (NESDB)

3.0-3.5% 2015 4.1%

ast as of, month ending

15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15

The Economist poll

2015 2016

1.04a –

2015, % , 31/8/2015

7.66.9

6.66.3

5.75.5

4.93.53.4

3.12.8

2.42.42.3

1.40.9

-1.7-3.6

IndiaChina

PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan

SingaporeSouth Korea

AustraliaUS

Hong KongEuro Area

JapanBrazilRussia

0.60.4

IndiaChina

VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand

South KoreaSingaporeAustraliaTaiwan

USHong KongEuro Area

JapanBrazilRussia

2015 2016

% , 31/8/2015

7.86.7

6.56.4

5.65.5

4.74.1

3.33.2

2.82.72.7

2.11.7

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

3.07a –

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Tobacco & a

Food away from

Recreation & Edu

Prepared food at

Apparel and foo

Housing & furn

Non alcoholic bev

Transport & C-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Head line

, . . 2015

& fruit

alcohol

m home

ucation

al care

t home

otware

soning

nishing

verage

& milk

Energy

3.08 –

Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll

Latest

Russia Jul

Brazil Jul

Indonesia Aug

India Jul

Malaysia Jul

Hong Kong Jul

Pakistan Jul

China Jul

Australia Q2

Philippines Jul

South Korea Aug

Vietnam Aug

Japan Jul

Euro Area Aug

US Jul

Singapore Jul

Taiwan Jul

Thailand Aug

3.09a –

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis

CPulp & pa

TexNon metallic min

MechinMechinFore

Leather & footwW

Other manu goMF

EneElectrical eq

ChemLivesto

Basic meRubber & pla

FishPetroleum prod

9b –

, . . 2015

CropaperxtileneralneryneryestrywareWoodoodsMetalFoodergyquipmicalocksetalsastichingucts

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

3.02a –

3.02b –

97.7% 97.8%97.2%

96.4%95.7% 95.7%

94.9% 94.8%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

94.5% 94.5%95.4%

5 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Y-o-Y+4.6%

M-o-M+0.5%

3.03a –

3.03b –

458 401 380 317 270 256 267

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1

5.29% 4.85%3.60%

2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1

Gross NPLs

278 299 312

4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

2.16% 2.29% 2.38%

14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

3.04 –

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

12.4%13.3%

13.9%14.9%

15.8% 16.1%

16.2%15.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3.05 –

31/8/2015

3M risk-free interest rates Expected 2015 inf

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

Pakistan

Vietnam

Malaysia

Australia

Philippines

Thailand

South Korea

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Euro Area

flation* Real interest rates=

. . SET 4%

Source: SET, The Economist

3.06a – SET

3.06c –

29/7/2015

3.06b –

SET MAI, ,

France (CAC 40)

Japan (Nikkei 225)

Pakistan (KSE)

Germany (DAX)

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

China (SSEB, $ terms)

US (NAScomp)

S Korea (KOSPI)

Australia (All Ord.)

US (S&P 500)

India (BSE)

US (DJIA)

UK (FTSE 100)

China (SSEA)

Malaysia (KLSE)

HK (Hang Seng)

Thailand (SET)

Singapore (STI)

Taiwan (TWI)

Indonesia (JSX)

-4.3% -4.0%

-100.0

J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

. . SET 4%

-10.3%

-10.7%

-11.9%

-14.6%

-17.1%

-18.9%

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m Growth Opportunity

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis

4.1 –

-0.7%-0.3%

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

2007-2010

10 2009

-2.2% -2.4%

-2.0%-2.5%

Y 12FY 13FY 14FY

4.2 –

1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484

1,7511,902

2,075 2,158 2,076

-1,277 -1,280

-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930

-2,489 -2,424 -2,371

-36110

-174 -100-364

-75 -27

-414-267 -296

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

7 2015

-350.0

-300.0

-250.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

4.3 –

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

2007-2010

7 2015

-267-296

Y 13FY 14FY '15/7mo

4.4 –

% , 2015

South KoreaHong KongSingapore

TaiwanPhilippinesIndonesiaThailand

Euro AreaAustralia

USChina

RussiaIndia

MalaysiaVietnamPakistan

BrazilJapan

4.5a – 4.5b –

Source: Public Debt Management Office

8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total

2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 2011 2012

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

(5.7 ) (42%)

2 2013 2014 Jun-15

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

4.6 –

, 2014 ( )

Source: CIA fact book

228181

175142

134132131

119119

110107

1021011019896949494939290898786

1 Japan2 Zimbabwe

3 Greece4 Lebanon

5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland

10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea

14 Barbados15 Spain

16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt

19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan

23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK

25 Cabo verde

39 United40 C43

48 Ur50 Pa

5663 Ma

6771 Th

72 Philip7

80 Vie93 M96 Sw

101 Arg103 South105 Hong

108 T126

129 N133 Indo

137147149 N

164 Saudi

Central Intelligence Agency

CIA 49%

Int’l rule ofthumb<60% ofGDP

7170676564

59545149484646

4140383737373030242213122

statesCroatia3 Israelruguayakistan6 Brazilalaysia7 Indiahailandppines8 LaosetnamMexicowedenentinaKoreag kongTurkeyNepalorwayonesia7 ChinaRussiaNigeriaarabia

••

• . . 1%

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

• 7 2015

. . 1%

tability

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

5.01 –

1.25.3

-5.0-1.2

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

10FY 1

7 2015

6.0 6.7

24.618.0

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

-8.1 -7.5 -9.1 -10.4-3.5

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

-2.6-15.4 -8.9

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

5.02 –

As % of 2015 GDP*

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Singapore Q2

Taiwan Q2

South Korea Jun

Russia Q2

Philippines Mar

Malaysia Q2

China Q2

Hong Kong Q1

Vietnam 2013

Japan Jun

Euro Area Jun

Thailand Q1

Pakistan Q2

India Q1

Indonesia Q2

Australia Q1

Brazil Jul

-406.4

(Current Account)

Last 12 months, USD Billion

5.10a –

5.10b –

69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12Y

38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE

.7 139.9 140.7 138.0

YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

% 38.2% 34.5% 33.7%

E 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

5.11a – 5.11b –

84% 80% 82% 82% 82%

16% 20% 18% 18% 18%

11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

55% 56

45% 44

11YE 12Y

% 57% 60% 61%

% 43% 40% 39%

YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

5.12a – 5.12b –

340%370%

279% 277%292%

10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

10FY 11FY

(277%)

4.2%4.0%

4.7% 4.9%

12FY 13FY 14FY 15/1Q

5.13a – *

5.13b –

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

6.99.1

13.812.6

10.8 9.9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net forward position .

currency forward contracts

2005 2012

9.1 9.5 9.7

2 2013 2014 Jul-15

8 190.2 180.2 174.6

2 2013 2014 Jul-15

. . 1%

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers

USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,

MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

5.17b –

5.17a – 2007 = 100

MYR 8.7172

AUD 26.0602

MXN 2.1507

IDR 2.7164

EUR 40.6272

JPY 29.908

KRW 0.0305

SGD 25.6825

INR 0.5759

TWD 1.1134

GBP 55.7311

PHP 0.7816

VND 0.0016

CNY 5.6752

USD 36.0277

Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15

M o M1.4%

Y o Y+2.0%

Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates

(Nominal Effective

Exchange Rate)

. . 1% 1

, 31/8/2015

Baht depreciates Baht appreciates

without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but

cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information

gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingASEAN™ can accept

no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558

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