Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief กันยายน 2558

ISSN: 2286-6132

ChartingThailand’sEconomy

MONTHLY

กนัยายน 2558

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Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, September 2015 (Thai)Publication Date: September 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 69

2

ansmitted in any se, without the

cannot be hat from both n to guarantee.

ased on any

questions and

Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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...

•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015

5Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.

© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysisNote: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

1.05 –

%

7.2%

6.3%

4.2%

5.0%5.4%

1.7%

-0.7%

7.5%

0.8%

7.3%

2.8%

0.9%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10

(

)

2003 2014

3.4% 10 2009

2010

(V)

2011

2012 6.5%

2013 2.8%

2014

2014 0.7%

2015

6

0.9% 1.0%

2.1%

3.0%2.8%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Last 5 Quarters

© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.

Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis

1.06a – 2Q15

%

1.06b –

%

18.7

17.3

8.6

8.6

6.3

5.5

5.5

3.7

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.2

1.3

-0.7

-1.6

-3.9

-6.3

Hotel&Res

Construction

Financial

Transport

Other social

Health&Social

Private HH

Trading

GDP

Utilities

RealEstate

Education

PublicAdmin

Manufacture

Fishing

Mining

Agriculture

GDP

Transport

Hotel&Res

Financial

Trading

Construction

RealEstate

Other social

Utilities

Health&Social

Education

PublicAdmin

Private HH

Fishing

Mining

Manufacture

Agriculture

Stat diff

2 2015

– 2Q15

7

2.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5


Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis

1.08a – 2Q15

%

1.08b –

%

Note: (*) C = , I = I (capital) = I (inventory) =

G = , X = ( ), M = (

25.1

4.6

2.8

2.5

1.9

1.5

-0.2

-0.3

-4.0

X (services)

G

GDP

I (capital)

I

C

M (services)

M (goods)

X (goods)

GDP

X (services)

Discrpncy

C

G

I (capital)

M (goods)

M (services)

I (Inventory)

X (goods)

– 2Q15

.) 8

2.8

3.3

3.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.1

0.0

-0.2

-2.5


MPI Beyond TrainingBusiness Simulation andExperiential LearningContact Us:Tel: 02 168 7245 7, 098 248 2585www.BeyondTraining.co.thFacebook: MPI Beyond [email protected]

•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



1.10 – (2000 = 100)

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

152.1161.1

174.6182.9

170.0

194.2

177.6 181.6 175.7167.7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1

1

1

1

1

2

2000 100

10

2009

2011

2013

11

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014

2015


1.11a –

% , . . 2015

1.11b –

%

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis

29.29.6

6.13.73.02.12.0

-0.2-2.4-2.5-2.8

-4.3-4.6-5.7-5.8-6.5-6.9-7.7

-11.0-17.8

-27.6

PetroleumChemicalVehiclesPaper

Metal productsFood & Bev

TobaccoFurnitureApparel

Rubber&PlasticMachineries

MineralWood productsPrecision instru

LeatherElectricalTextiles

Basic MatTransport Equip

ElectronicOffice automate -

ChemicalElectricalElectronicVehicles

Metal productsApparel

Precision instruFood & Bev

PaperLeather

FurnitureRubber&Plastic

Basic MatPetroleum

MineralTextiles

Wood productsOffice automate

MachineriesTobacco

Transport Equip

. .

. .

–

, . . 2015

12

13.310.0

8.88.5

7.65.8

5.13.22.92.62.62.01.6

0.4-3.2-3.4

-8.4-10.3-10.5

-12.214.1


1% . .

1.12a –

%

1.12b –

%

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Rubber&PlasticElectronicTextiles

Wood productsElectricalFurnitureBasic Mat

Metal productsLeather

Office automateFood & Bev

Precision instruPaper

ChemicalVehicles

Transport EquipMachineries

MineralPetroleumTobaccoApparel

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

Normal

Seasonally adjusted

1%

. .

, . . 2015

13

89%83%

80%79%

78%74%

69%68%

66%64%

59%49%

48%47%

46%45%

43%42%

39%31%

26%


1.13 –

% ,

Source: The Economist

2

1.3

1.2

1.2

-1.6

-3.0

-3.2

-3.6

-4.6

-5.3

-6.1

Vietnam Aug

China Jul

Indonesia Jun

Malaysia Jun

Pakistan Jun

India Jun

Australia Q1

Japan Jun

US Jul

Euro Area Jun

South Korea Jun

Hong Kong Q1

Taiwan Jul

Brazil Jun

Philippines Jun

Russia Jul

Thailand Jul

Singapore Jul

14

9.0

6.0

5.8

4.4

3.9

3.8

2.8

2.3


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



. .

1.14a – (2010 = 100)

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

1.1

%

Non re

Se

Non du

Semi du

Composite

Du80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0


2014

2015

5

( Nielsen’s

FMCG

)

(

)

(

)

(

)

(

)

2010

. .

4b –

, . . 2015

16

53.1

8.6

4.0

0.1

-2.1

-13.0

sident

ervices

rables

rables

Index

rables



1.15a – (2010 = 100)

1.15b

%

Note: (*) figures are 1-month delayed

Domestic M(2010

Cp

Constructio

Import(201

DomesticSa

114.0

115.0

116.0

117.0

118.0

119.0

120.0

121.0


2014

2015

5

2553

2553

3

9

2553

b –

, . . 2015

17

13.8

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-6.0

-12.8

Machinery sales*prices, Baht)

Composite Index

onstruction Areapermitted (sqm)

on Material SalesIndex

of Capital Goods0 prices, Baht)

c Commercial Carales Index


Source: BOT

5.14 –

.

8,547

4,853

9,112

2,474

12,899

14,416

12,728

08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

(Foreign Direct

Investment : FDI)

(Equity capital)

10

.

.

.

.

18


2014

2015


.

.

5.15 – .

Source: Board of Investment

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

236

396

648

525

1,023

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

.

10%

.

230

14

2014/5M 2015/5M

19© ChartingASEAN™www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.

5.16 – .

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

49%58% 54%

2

7%

10%7%

1

8%

7%10%

1

7%

10%6%

7

2%

4%

2%

1

27%

11%21% 2

11FY 12FY 13FY 14

Europe

Japan

ASEANANIEsUSA

Others

29%38%

7%5%

0%2%

7% 21%

3% 1%

25%34%

4FY 2015/5M


1.16a –

% , 6 2015

1.16b

%

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

13.0

-2.9

-9.1

-10.8

Condo unit registered

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

Value of land transaction

-19.5

-38.2

10%

b –

, . . 2015

21

5.6

17.2


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



5.03a –

7 ,

5.03b

7 ,


Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Export Import Tradebalance

2014

2015

– = -20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Expo

-7.4% -4.7%-3.4%

b –

23

ort Import Trade balance– =

% -8.6%


3.4% 7 2015

5.05a –

% , 7 2015

5.05b –

%


-3.412.4

6.43.72.92.52.40.90.20.1

-0.5-3.5

-5.9-6.7-6.7-7.0-8.9-9.0-9.6

-14.3-14.4

-19.2-20.3

-27.7-52.0

Total exportOptical instru

JewelleryPhoto instruMachinery

Other manufacturingAutomotive

ForestryMetal

ElectricalElectronics

Agro productsApparelsFootware

AgricultureToiletriesFurnitureAircrafts

Petro chemicalOther export

FisheryPetroleumChemicalsRe exports

Mining

Total exportAutomotiveMachineryJewellery

Optical instruOther manufacturing

Photo instruMetal

ForestryElectricalFootware

Re exportsFurniture

ElectronicsToiletriesAircraftsFishery

ApparelsMining

Other exportAgro products

AgriculturePetro chemical

ChemicalsPetroleum

3.4% 7 2015

24

-3.40.3

0.20.20.10.10.00.00.00.0

0.00.00.0

-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

-0.4-0.5-0.6

-0.8-0.9


5.07a – 5

%


23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1

20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3

11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0

11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3

10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2

18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5


ASEAN

NAFTA

East Asiaex-Japan

EU

Japan

Middle East

Rest of the world

100% = (Trillion)6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3

Rest of

East Asi

M

( )

5.07b –

, 7 2015

25

7.2%

-3.3%

-3.5%

-5.7%

-6.2%

-7.0%

-13.8%

NAFTA

ASEAN

f the world

Japan

EU

a ex Japan

Middle East


7% 7 2015

5.09a –

% , 7 2015

5.09b –

%


-7.4

7.7

5.0

-0.2

-4.2

-33.3

Total import

Others

Consumer goods

Intermediate Non fuel

Capital goods

Intermediate Fuel

Total imp

Oth

Consumer goo

Intermediate Non f

Capital goo

Intermediate F

7% 7 2015

26

-7.4

0.6

0.4

-0.1

-1.0

-7.3

ort

ers

ods

uel

ods

uel


5.08 –


7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0

17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8

44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7

20.9 21.3 24.4 23.3

10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY

Others

Capital goods

Consumer goods

100% = 5.9 7.0

Intermediate - Fuel

Intermediate –Non-Fuel

7.8 7.7

( )

27

8.7 9.6

20.8 15.8

38.3 40.7

24.2 25.1

8.1 8.8

14FY 15/7MO

(Trillion)7.4 4.0


30% 7

Source: Department of Tourism

5.18 –

CAGR10.6%

10.011.7 11.5

14.5 14.115.9

19.2

22.4

26.524.8

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

30% 7

28

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2014

2015


5.19a 5.19b

10

7 2015,

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis

51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8

27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8

5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9


EastAsia

Europe

Americas

Rest ofworld

191.8

155.2

141.6

131.6

131.3

112.1

95.2

57.6

China

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Korea

Vietnam

Singapore

Japan

India

USA

29

2,458.2

765.8

8


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



. .

2.08 –

%

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

1.83

1.51

1.38 1.381.49

1.04

0.68 0.660.72

0.84

05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

15

30

30

15

. .

1%

1%


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40


2014

2015

2.09 –

, %


0.8

2.0

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.9

5.3

5.3

5.8

6.0

6.3

6.4

7

Thailand Jun

Singapore Q2

Malaysia Jun

Hong Kong Jul

Japan Jul

Vietnam 2014

Taiwan Jul

South Korea Jul

China Q2

India 2013

US Jul

Russia Jul

Indonesia Q1

Pakistan 2014

Australia Jul

Philippines Q2

Brazil Jul

Euro Area Jun

32

7.5

11.1


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



. .

3.01a – . 3.01b –

3.01c – . 3.01d –

Source: Bank of Thailand Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%

Sep-14 Aug-15

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

10.00%

Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-14

Max

Min

Sep-14

. (

1 ) 12

1

12

12

12

0.5%

1.5%

BIBOR*

.

34

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

10.00%

Aug-15

Min

Max

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%

Aug-15


Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

–

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

D J F M A M J J A

2015

7

12%

35

S O N D

2014


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



1.18a – * 1.18b

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Note: (*) Below is tIndex = 1Index > 1Index < 1

49.452.4

45.250.3 49.1

46.4

0

50

100

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15

Better

Worse

88.9 87

0

100

200

Feb-15 Mar

Better

Worse

1,500

3

50

(

) 50

(

) 50

( )

100

100

100

. .

. .

– **

the interpretation of the index:00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

37

7.7 86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0

r-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15


. .

(*) 0-100

50

50

50

1.17 –

Source: Ministry of Commerce

0

50

100

Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-150

50

100


Overall On job

Better

Worse

Better

Worse

0-100

50

50

50

. .

38.9

33.7

50

38

0

50

100


On future income

Better

Worse


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



1.03a –

2015, %

1.03b –

2016, %

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15

Forecast as of, month ending

BOT

FPOThe Economist

poll

NESDB

ForecaJ-15 F-15 M-1

(BOT) (NESDB)

(FPO)

.

3.0-3.5% 2015 4.1%

2016

40

ast as of, month ending

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15

BOT

The Economist poll


.

2015 2016

1.04a –

2015, % , 31/8/2015

1.04

2016,


7.66.9

6.66.3

5.75.5

4.93.53.4

3.12.8

2.42.42.3

1.40.9

-1.7-3.6

IndiaChina

PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan

SingaporeSouth Korea

AustraliaUS

Hong KongEuro Area

JapanBrazilRussia

0.60.4

IndiaChina

VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand

South KoreaSingaporeAustraliaTaiwan

USHong KongEuro Area

JapanBrazilRussia

.

2015 2016

b –

% , 31/8/2015

41

7.86.7

6.56.4

5.65.5

4.74.1

3.33.2

2.82.72.7

2.11.7

1.66


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



. .

3.07a –

%

3.07b

%

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Veg

Tobacco & a

Food away from

Recreation & Edu

Medic

Prepared food at

Apparel and foo

Sea

Housing & furn

Non alcoholic bev

Eggs

Transport & C-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Head line

Core*

. .

1.2%

b –

, . . 2015


8.5

2.0

1.8

1.3

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

-0.7

-2.6

-7.6

-17.0

& fruit

alcohol

m home

ucation

al care

t home

otware

Rice

soning

nishing

verage

Meat

& milk

Commu

Energy

3.08 –

%

Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll

Latest

1.

1.

1.0

0.7

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.8

15.6

9.6

7.2

3.8

3.3

2.5

1.8

1.6

1.5

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-1.2

Russia Jul

Brazil Jul

Indonesia Aug

India Jul

Malaysia Jul

Hong Kong Jul

Pakistan Jul

China Jul

Australia Q2

Philippines Jul

South Korea Aug

Vietnam Aug

Japan Jul

Euro Area Aug

US Jul

Singapore Jul

Taiwan Jul

Thailand Aug

2015*


14.8

8.7

6.3

5.4

2.6

3.1

4.1

5

.7

2.6

2.8

3.09a –

%

3.09

%

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis

CPulp & pa

TexNon metallic min

MechinMechinFore

Leather & footwW

Other manu goMF

EneElectrical eq

ChemLivesto

Basic meRubber & pla

FishPetroleum prod

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%


. .

3.8%

9b –

, . . 2015


5.9

1.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-1.1

-2.2

-3.5

-3.8

-4.1

-4.4

-5.4

-30.6

CropaperxtileneralneryneryestrywareWoodoodsMetalFoodergyquipmicalocksetalsastichingucts

•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



3.02a –

3.02b –


97.7% 97.8%97.2%

96.4%95.7% 95.7%

94.9% 94.8%

90%

95%

100%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

( )

47

94.5% 94.5%95.4%

96.5%

5 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Y-o-Y+4.6%

M-o-M+0.5%


3.03a –

3.03b –


458 401 380 317 270 256 267

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1

7.31%

5.29% 4.85%3.60%

2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 1

Gross NPLs

278 299 312

4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

2.16% 2.29% 2.38%

14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3


3.04 –


Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

12.4%13.3%

13.9%14.9%

14.0%

15.8% 16.1%

14.8%

16.2%15.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

( .)

. .

. .

49

14.5%

15.0%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%


2014

2015


3.05 –

31/8/2015


3M risk-free interest rates Expected 2015 inf

14.2

12.5

7.5

7.4

7.0

4.6

3.7

3.1

2.3

1.8

1.7

1.6

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

India

Pakistan

Vietnam

Malaysia

China

Australia

Philippines

Thailand

South Korea

Taiwan

Hong Kong

US

Japan

Euro Area

8.7

6.3

5.4

4.1

2.8

2.6

1.5

1.7

2.6

0.8

1.0

0.2

3.1

0.4

0.7

0.2

= -

1%

flation* Real interest rates=

50

5.5

-2.3

1.2

2.0

2.9

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.6

-0.8

0.9

0.6

0.7

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-0.2

14.8


. . SET 4%

Source: SET, The Economist

3.06a – SET

%

3.06c –

29/7/2015

3.06b –

SET MAI, ,

France (CAC 40)

Japan (Nikkei 225)

Pakistan (KSE)

Germany (DAX)

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

China (SSEB, $ terms)

US (NAScomp)

S Korea (KOSPI)

Australia (All Ord.)

US (S&P 500)

India (BSE)

US (DJIA)

UK (FTSE 100)

China (SSEA)

Malaysia (KLSE)

HK (Hang Seng)

Thailand (SET)

Singapore (STI)

Taiwan (TWI)

Indonesia (JSX)

-5.1%

1.4%

-2.0%

0.6%

-4.3% -4.0%


-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

SET

. . SET 4%

SET

2014


5.3%

5.3%

4.4%

2.0%

1.8%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-1.1%

-3.9%

-5.8%

-6.5%

-8.6%

-8.9%

-9.5%

-10.3%

-10.7%

-11.9%

-14.6%

-17.1%

-18.9%

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m Growth Opportunity

•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



2

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis

4.1 –

-0.5%

1.4%

-2.0%

-1.1%

-4.0%

-0.7%-0.3%

-0.6%

1.1%

-1.7%

-1.1%

-4.4%

-2.6%

-0.9

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

9 10

2007-2010

2009

2012

10 2009

2014

2014

-3.6%

-2.2% -2.4%

9%

-4.1%

-2.0%-2.5%

Y 12FY 13FY 14FY


2015


4.2 –

1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484

1,7511,902

2,075 2,158 2,076

-1,277 -1,280

-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930

-2,489 -2,424 -2,371

-36110

-174 -100-364

-75 -27

-414-267 -296

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

7 2015

7


-350.0

-300.0

-250.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0


2014

2015

97

7

4.3 –


-36

110

-174

-100

-364

-75

-27

-414

-45

88

-144

-96

-401

-266

-95

-4

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

9 10

2007-2010

2010

2012

7 2015

97

148

148


-267-296

-97

466

-242

-305

-148

Y 13FY 14FY '15/7mo

4.4 –

% , 2015


-1.9

-2.0

-2.0

-2.1

-2.4

-2.6

-2.7

-2.8

-4.1

-4.1

-4.2

-5.1

-5.8

-6.8

South KoreaHong KongSingapore

TaiwanPhilippinesIndonesiaThailand

Euro AreaAustralia

USChina

RussiaIndia

MalaysiaVietnamPakistan

BrazilJapan

2015

2%


0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.1

2015

4.5a – 4.5b –

Source: Public Debt Management Office

8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 2011 2012

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

(5.7 ) (42%)

( )


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2 2013 2014 Jun-15

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

4.6 –

, 2014 ( )

Source: CIA fact book

228181

175142

134132131

119119

110107

1021011019896949494939290898786

1 Japan2 Zimbabwe

3 Greece4 Lebanon

5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland

10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea

14 Barbados15 Spain

16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt

19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan

23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK

25 Cabo verde

39 United40 C43

48 Ur50 Pa

5663 Ma

6771 Th

72 Philip7

80 Vie93 M96 Sw

101 Arg103 South105 Hong

108 T126

129 N133 Indo

137147149 N

164 Saudi

Central Intelligence Agency

CIA 49%

2014

228%

Int’l rule ofthumb<60% ofGDP

59

7170676564

59545149484646

4140383737373030242213122

statesCroatia3 Israelruguayakistan6 Brazilalaysia7 Indiahailandppines8 LaosetnamMexicowedenentinaKoreag kongTurkeyNepalorwayonesia7 ChinaRussiaNigeriaarabia


•

••

••

•

• . . 1%

•

•

• 3.0-3.5% 201

• . .

•

•

• 7 2015

. . 1%

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 4.1% 2016

7 2015



7 2015

(F.

+

5.01 –


31.3

1.25.3

-5.0-1.2

5.6

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

29.8

10FY 1

-19.7

10FY 1

21.3

10FY 1

7 2015

O.B)


17.0

6.0 6.7

24.618.0

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

-8.1 -7.5 -9.1 -10.4-3.5

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

-7.7

6.7

-2.6-15.4 -8.9

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

5.02 –


As % of 2015 GDP*

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

21.3%

12.8%

7.6%

5.0%

4.1%

3.4%

3.0%

2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

2.5%

2.4%

-0.6%

-1.2%

-2.6%

-2.6%

-3.1%

-4.1%

Singapore Q2

Taiwan Q2

South Korea Jun

Russia Q2

Philippines Mar

Malaysia Q2

China Q2

Hong Kong Q1

Vietnam 2013

Japan Jun

Euro Area Jun

Thailand Q1

Pakistan Q2

India Q1

US Q1

Indonesia Q2

Australia Q1

Brazil Jul

-406.4

(Current Account)

12

Last 12 months, USD Billion

62

69.5

72.8

102.2

68.7

14.5

8.8

291.4

5.9

9.5

97.1

317.6

16.1

-2.2

-27.5

-21.6

-41.9

-89.4


2015


5.10a –

5.10b –

69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3

130.

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12Y

38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%

38.0%

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE

.

2009

.7 139.9 140.7 138.0

YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

% 38.2% 34.5% 33.7%

E 13YE 14YE 15/1Q



5.11a – 5.11b –

84% 80% 82% 82% 82%

16% 20% 18% 18% 18%

11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

55% 56

45% 44

11YE 12Y

1

1

% 57% 60% 61%

% 43% 40% 39%

YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q



5.12a – 5.12b –

340%370%

312%

279% 277%292%

10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q

4.7%

3.4%

10FY 11FY

2011

(277%)

4.7%

.

4.2%4.0%

4.7% 4.9%

12FY 13FY 14FY 15/1Q


5.13a – *

5.13b –

**


Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

6.99.1

7.9

13.812.6

10.8 9.9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net forward position .

currency forward contracts

( )

4

2005 2012

10


9.1 9.5 9.7

2 2013 2014 Jul-15

8 190.2 180.2 174.6

2 2013 2014 Jul-15

. . 1%


Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers

USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,

MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

5.17b –

%

5.17a – 2007 = 100

MYR 8.7172

AUD 26.0602

MXN 2.1507

IDR 2.7164

EUR 40.6272

JPY 29.908

KRW 0.0305

SGD 25.6825

INR 0.5759

TWD 1.1134

GBP 55.7311

PHP 0.7816

VND 0.0016

CNY 5.6752

USD 36.0277

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15

M o M1.4%

Y o Y+2.0%

Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates

(Nominal Effective

Exchange Rate)

23

1

. . 1% 1

2%

, 31/8/2015

Baht depreciates Baht appreciates


18.1

15.7

14.0

8.5

4.4

4.0

3.6

0.6

-1.9

-3.6

-4.3

-4.7

-6.3

-7.3

-10.9

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without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but

cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information

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