Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?

Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate

How do we know anything?

Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology

Stanford, CAkcaldeira@stanford.edu

Climate Literacy ConferenceSan Diego 18 Feb 2010

How do we know anything?• Thought, intuition, interior reflection

• Unplanned direct experience

• Family, friends, etc

• TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots

• Planned empirical investigation

• Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information

Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

Can we trust our own experience?

by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson

How do we know anything?• What food to eat?

• Which things are really dangerous?

• Which investments are safe?

• Whether human-induced climate change is a real threat?

• Which energy technologies or approaches can really diminish climate risk?

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions exceed natural emissions by a factor of about

100

7

8

9

10

1990 2000 2010

CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection

6

5

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

CO2 e

miss

ions

(PgC

y-1)

2005

7

8

9

10

1990 2000 2010

CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection

6

5

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

CO2 e

miss

ions

(PgC

y-1)

2005

2006

7

8

9

10

1990 2000 2010

CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection

6

5

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

CO2 e

miss

ions

(PgC

y-1)

2005

20062007

2008

Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth

International Energy Agency, October 2009

-1.1%

7

8

9

10

1990 2000 2010

CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection

6

5

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; updated Raupach unpublished; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-Geo, in press

CO2 e

miss

ions

(PgC

y-1)

2005

20062007

20082009

Projection 2009:Emissions: -2.8%GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7%

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.2

2.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux

(Pg

C y-1

)Si

nkSo

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Ice core and instrumental records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Petit et al (1999)

Fig by Robert A. Rohde

Ischia, Italy

Map created by Norman Einstein

CO2 dissolving shells and skeletonsHall-Spencer / BBC

High CO2 = Invasive grasses

Low CO2= Native shellfish

Thanks, Jason Hall-Spencer

Chemistry ofocean acidification

Formation of calcium carbonate shells and

skeletons

CO32-C

O O

OCa Ca2+ (dissolved)

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

Formation of calcium carbonate shells and

skeletons

CO32-

CO O

O

Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

Formation of calcium carbonate shells and

skeletons

CO32-

CO O

O

Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

Formation of calcium carbonate shells and

skeletons

CO O

OCa CaCO3 (solid)

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons

CaCO3 (solid)C

O O

OCa

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

Addition of CO2

CaCO3 (solid)C

O O

OCa

H HO

H2O HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

CO O CO2

Formation of carbonic acid

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HHC

O O

O H2CO3

CaCO3 (solid)

Increasing ocean acidity

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

H H+

CaCO3 (solid)

Increasing ocean acidity

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

H H+

CaCO3 (solid)

Increasing ocean acidity

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

H H+

CaCO3 (solid)

Increasing ocean acidity

CaCO3 (solid)C

O O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

H H+

Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O CO32-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

H H+

CaCO3 (solid)

H

Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons

CO O

OCa

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O HCO3-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

CaCO3 (solid)

H

Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-

CO O

O

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O HCO3-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)

H

Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-

CO O

O

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O HCO3-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)

H

Dissolving shells and skeletons

CO32-C

O O

O

HC

O O

OHCO3

-C

O O

O HCO3-

HC

O O

O HCO3-

Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)

Lizard Island

ExpeditionSeptember

2008

We measured of coral skeletal growth rates 40% lower than in the late 1970’s

Distribution of corals andocean acidification

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragonite

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

Cao and Caldeira, 2008

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

0 1 2 3 4 5

Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008

Carbon dioxide level,

Coral reef distribution

,

and chemical

conditions helping

drive reef formation

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Qori Kalis, Peru 1978

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

Qori Kalis, Peru 2002

Courtesy Lonnie Thompson

1900 2000

1900 2000

Whitechuck GlacierWA, USA

1973

Mauri Pelto 2006

PELTOMS

Anecdotes&

Statistics

Dyurgerov (2002), Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode

Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode

What if things aren’t simple?

The case of forests

With deforestation, CO2 is much higher but temperatures are slightly cooler

A2

Atmospheric CO2 TemperatureAdditional contribution from loss of CO2-fertilization of forests

Effect of loss of carbon from forests

Global deforestation experiment: net temperature change (CO2 +

biophysical)

A2

Temperature change predicted in latitude-band deforestation simulations

Boreal

Temperate

Tropical

Predicted role of forestsTropical forests cool the planetTemperate (mid-latitude) forests do littleBoreal forests warm the planet

Desire for

improvedwell-being Demand

for goods and

services

Demand for

energy

Impacts on

humans and

Climate change &

ocean

CO2 emission

sCO2 in

ecosystems

acidification

atmosphere

Conservation

Efficiency

Low-carbonenergy

Forests, etc.

Adaptation

Climateintervention

Inglehart and Klingemann 2000.

usa

People in Philippines and Brazilare just as happy as West Germans, Canadians, Japanese, and Frenchbut use 1/10th the energy

Happiness and GDP

Myers, 2004

American income (and energy use) increases,but we do not become happier

How do we know anything?• Thought, intuition, interior reflection

• Unplanned direct experience

• Family, friends, etc

• TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots

• Planned empirical investigation

• Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information