Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School University of...

Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School University of Salford, UK

(Email: b.c.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk)

BACKGROUND MATERIAL FOR ‘BRIDGING THE GAP’ PROJECT

CAREER BACKGROUND ETC.

• Started in industrial OR• Been involved with SD since 1970’s• Exec Editor of SD Review since 2002• Role in this project is advisory• Opportunities you might grasp:

– Research Problems paper– Upcoming 2008 International SD Conference

HIV/AIDS RESEARCH

MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL

Number of Year (quarter) of

Feature equations (approx) introduction

Project-based model 13 1987(2)

Variable infectivity 20 1989(1)

Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2)

Reporting delay & fitting model to data 70 1992(2)

Treatment effect & removals / additions 120 1997(4)

Health care sector 190 1998(4)

Introduction of HAART 300 1999(2)

Effects of regression in behaviour

after HAART (fitting to HIV data) 360 2001(3)

HIV/AIDS

• JORS 41: (1990)• In: “Models for Infectious Human Diseases” V. Isham

and G. Medley Eds., C.U.P. (1996)• EU Concerted Action Report: RIVM (1997)• Recovering the AIDS Incubation Time Distribution

from Right-Censored Data SDR 15: (1999)• HAART SDR 17: (2001)

RE-CONFIGURING HEALTH SERVICES

• JORS 56: (2005)• JHSRP 10: (2005)

ECONOMIC MODELLING

Map of Borneo

Model purpose

How and over what time-scale can the State of Sarawak best manage the transition from a production-based economy to a knowledge-based economy and thereby improve international competitiveness?

DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: high-level map

Primary & SecondaryEducation

HigherEducation

(Arts)

HigherEducation(Science)

VocationalEducation

(Sub-professional)

R & DCentres

(Exemplars)

Primary Industry

(Agric; Forestry;Mining; M/facturing)

Knowledge-basedIndustry & Services

High Value-added; Biotech; Medicine

SecondaryIndustry

(Transport; Storage;Retail; Finance &

Insurance)

BroadbandCabling (Kms)

Number of PC’s

State Incentives

FederalFunds

ICT Infrastructure

StateRevenue

SUPPLY

DEMAND

COMMSINFRASTRUCTUREF

DI

Closures?

Leakage

Overseas?

Skills/Tech Transfer Money

Capital EquipmentHuman Resources

Sectors of the model • Population• Education & Human capital• Workforce (main view )

• Workforce (measures of performance )• R&D/ ICT Infrastructure/k-industries• Manufacturing; Services (tourism) & GDP• Timber Production: trees• Timber Production: downstream processing• Palm Oil: trees• Palm Oil: products• Sago production• LNG & petroleum production• State Revenue & spending

Dissemination

• Various conference presentations

• ICFAI Journal of Knowledge Management

3: (2005)

• Article in “Complex Decision-Making: Theory & Practice”, H Qudrat-Ullah, MJ Spector & P Davidsen (Eds) Springer, NY (2007)

CURRENTLY….

• “Sustained competitiveness in the UK Construction Industry”

• EPSRC funded & collaborative with Reading & Loughborough IMRC’s

• £1.5m budget. SD modelling a major component

• See www.thebigideas.org.uk

Contracts onOffer in the

Market

Contracts Won ButNot Started Work in Progress

New ContractsReleased

ContractsAllocated

Contracts Start ContractsCompleted

CompetitivenessIndex

fraction allocatedto firm

delay in startingcontracts

delay in completingcontracts

Contractors Model

• July 20-24 2008 (Athenaeum Intercontinental)

• My role is Programme Chair

• Two opportunities:– ‘Developmental papers’– Workshops on the Thursday (24th)

• See www.systemdynamics.org

ISDC 2008 in ATHENS

QUESTIONS?….