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7September 2017
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential
AdvancedIntelligence&Research onSolarPV
byGaëtanMasson,Director,BecquerelInstitute
BECQUERELINSTITUTE
• Est.2014inBrussels• Researchoriented Instituteandconsultingcompany forSolarPVTechnologies.
• GlobalPVMarket Analysis includingcompetitiveness andeconomics.
• Industry analysis together with quality &reliability.
• Integration into electricity systems (grids andmarkets).
• In-houseexperts/Globalnetworkofexpertsandstakeholders
• PVMarket Alliance partner
COP21:BELGIUMCANBEQUITECOMPLEX
4
Target costs for BIPV
The PV market & the BIPV market
Market Potential in Europe for BIPV
Why isn’t it working already now?
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2
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Today’s agendaBIPV market and competitiveness
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential
FROM1.1to76GWin12years ?Andmore?
76GW5%
PVMarket Alliance2017
303GW
BIPVmarket (sourceDemForBIPV)
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 6
Bestcasearound 3GWin2016Or4% oftheglobalPVmarket.PartofrealBIPVcomponents?PartofarchitecturalBIPV?Growth rateuncertain unless driversareunderstood.
• Phase-out from subsidised schemes forPV(Feed-in-Tariffs,GreenCertificatesandNet-metering)
è Consequently,businessmodels based onself-consumption aredeveloping.
• Competitiveness under SCmeasured astheability toproduce electricity,sell it (orconsumeit locally)with revenuescompensating (with aprofit)theCAPEXandOPEXcosts during thelifetime oftheplant:
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 7
Current situation of European marketsWe currently are in a transitional period
CAPEXofPVSystem
Savings onelectricity
bills
Salesofexcess
electricity< +
During PV systems’ lifetime (25 years)
OPEXofPVSystem+
• StandardBAPVcompetitivenesshasbeenmeasuredwithcurrentlowelectricitymarketpricesand
showsthata50%self-consumptionsolutioncouldbecompetitive inallmarketsconsidered.
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 8
Competitiveness of BAPV solutionsDetailed costs of a usual BAPV system
TotalCAPEX(foracommercialsystem)=0,95€/Wp
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 9
Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsDrawing a parallel with BAPV – the classical approach
Target cost of BIPV systems ≤ MAX(BAPV[Module+DC Cabling+Mounting+Installation+Margin]) + Roofing material + Inverter
Only ifincluded intheBIPV« module »
• The threshold for competitiveness for a commercial BIPV roof solution has been calculated aswell: the system price needed to reach competitiveness in 2017 has been calculated assumingmodule efficiency of 16% and roofingmaterial cost from 15€ to 100€/m²
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 10
Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsEvaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a commercial roof
Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+…) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material)
Belgium/Luxemburg 0,72 €/Wp 0,82 €/Wp > 1,34 €/Wp
France 0,63 €/Wp (North) – 1,18 €/Wp (South) 0,73-1,28 €/Wp > 1,35 – 1,9 €/Wp
Germany 1,10 €/Wp (North) – 1,18 €/Wp (South) 1,20-1,28 €/Wp > 1,82 – 1,9 €/Wp
Italy 1,69 €/Wp (North) – 2,11 €/Wp (South) 1,79-2,21 €/Wp > 2,41 – 2,83 €/Wp
Netherlands 0,76 €/Wp 0,86 €/Wp > 1,48 €/Wp
No inverter included in BIPV system – Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 50%
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 11
Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsEvaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a industrial roof
• In case of an Industrial system. Assumptions are the same as on the previous slide (except roofingmaterial estimated at 15€/m2)
No inverter included in BIPV system – Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 75%
Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+…) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material)
Belgium/Luxemburg 0,80 €/Wp 0,92 €/Wp
France 0,72 €/Wp (North) – 1,23 €/Wp (South) 0,83-1,34 €/Wp
Germany 1,31 €/Wp (North) – 1,48 €/Wp (South) 1,43-1,60 €/Wp
Italy 1,48 €/Wp (North) – 1,99 €/Wp (South) 1,60-2,10 €/Wp
Netherlands 0,72 €/Wp 0,83 €/Wp
• Metrics in €/Wp are useful to compare BIPV costs with BAPV costs, so are classical LCOEcalculation in €/kWh
• BUT… BIPV has more functions than just generating power, hence such metric is incomplete(thermal isolation, water proofing,…)
• BIPV elements are building elements before being PV elements: €/m² are probably moresuited
• Main barriers:• Lack of awareness & resistance to change within the building sector• Lack of cooperation between stakeholders: PV and Construction/Building sectors do not communicate• Unadapted regulation• Difficulty to identify required standards and certifications: PV and Building
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 12
Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsA special case of PV requiring a special assessment
SUPPLY-SIDEAPPROACH:
• If all suitable facade and roof areas of residential andnon-residential buildings were covered with BIPVelements.
• « Suitable » takes into account:• Architectural suitability (considering shading areas, average
space occupied by other devices…)• Solar suitability: only areas where ≥80% of the maximum
solar yield that can be reached at this specific location, i.e. atoptimum tilt and azimuth
• But it is a « best case scenario »: many constraints mustbe overcome.
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 13
Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question – answer depends of the approach
DEMAND-SIDEAPPROACH:
• Considering the power demand of residential and non-residential buildings and what would be the BIPVcapacity required to exclusively cover this demand.
• Equal repartition between facade and roof BIPV, but atdifferent yields of course.
• This scenario is based on the idea that BIPV producedpower should be self-consumed on site consideringtoday’s regulatory uncertainty and unadequacy.
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 14
Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question – answer depends of the approach
39
40
104
111
208
26
27
69
74
139
0 50 100 150 200 250
Netherlands
Belgium
Italy
France
Germany
GWp
LowScenario HighScenario
SUPPLY-SIDEAPPROACH:
AdelELGAMMAL,PhilippeMACÉetal.,« Technical EvaluationofBIPVpowergeneration potential inEU-28 »,32ndEUPVSEC,Munich,June2016
DEMAND-SIDEAPPROACH:
63
90
435
442
574
25
42
158
168
300
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Belgium
Netherlands
Germany
France
Italy
GWp
LowScenario HighScenario
BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 15
38.1%
23.8%
31.3%
40.3%
29.7%
Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands
Potential share ofBIPVpowergeneration intotalpowerdemand
Market Potential of BIPV in Europe BIPV has the potential to generate
AdelELGAMMAL,PhilippeMACÉetal.,« Technical EvaluationofBIPVpowergeneration potential inEU-28 »,32ndEUPVSEC,Munich,June2016
16BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential
ConclusionsThe chicken and the egg
• In theory competitiveness could be possible already today in some segments.
• BIPV also suffers from the difficult situation of PV in Europe. Outisde of Europe,distributed PV markets are growing again after years of stagnation. Perspectives?
• BIPV is often seen as « architectural ». By definition « tailor-made ».
• Business models are significantly more complex, especially financing (mortage?Long term loans?) and insurance (who will cover what? Maintenance? Spareparts?) including guarantees (who will pay in case of late defect?)
• PV and BIPV business models shouldn’t be mixed while there is a part in common.
• Lack of products to motivate buyers (Tesla? Not the first but the most visible)
• Out of solve the equation? Public policies targeting the financial and insuranceaspects. R&D with market access. Call for tenders with technology requirements forBIPV. Develop easy-BIPV?
Utility-scale TRENDS
- <3USDcents/kWhis now feasible.- Reducing costs is still thechallenge
- Adhocmodules- Bifacialmodules- Longerlifetime (with repowering)- …
- Movable PVsystems (forshorterprojects)
- From fields to…waterà floatting PVsystems
_IPV
- PVinthebuilt environment >ease toself-consumelocally PVelectricity >competitive advantage
- Buildings- BAPV+BIPV- Solving questionsof:financing,insurance,
maintenance(spare parts),standardization…>adhocbusinessmodels which arenotdeveloped yet
- Rethink thenotionsofroofs/façades/buildingelements >evolving buildings
- Materials:glass,butalso metal,aesthetical aspects?- Massmanufacturing ofBIPVis acentralchallenge
- Urbanfurniture with PV- PVroads:highpotential,highprices
AutomotivePV
- Electrificationofvehicules is ongoing (slowly butgrowing).91000EVs sold inEuropeinH1.Chinafirstworldmarket.
- Different uses- Powerauxiliary equipment incars(reduce fuel
consumption orincrease range)- RechargeEVs’batteries(30km/day?)
- Potential- 60,000,000carsproduced every year- 0,5to1kWp percar- 30to60GWofPV
- Long-term reliability is less important,price is notanissueneither >>possiblefast development.
Integratedenergy approach
PVasapartofanintegratedapproach:- Reshaping energy useinbuildings
- Storage(energy (heat,cold)andelectricity)
- EVasDSM,EVasstorage- Virtualnet-metering- >>innovative businessmodelsandcommercialoffers
PVpowersource
Energymanagementinbuilding+storage
(En)
External uses:export+EV+storage (El)
Next step inevolution
CONTACT
GaëtanMasson,Directorg.masson@becquerelinstitute.org
orVisit usatwww.becquerelinstitute.org
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