Asic2012 final

Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production

C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M ObersteinerThe 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012

About CIAT

International Center for Tropical Agriculture

Leader DAPA: Dr. Andrew Jarvis

CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS

…about 100 researchers

• CIAT: One of 15 CGIAR Centers

• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture.

• Coffee: About 35 researchers work in two fields, access to high value markets and vulnerability to climate change.

About CIAT

"El clima se ha convertido en impredecible, ahora llueve menos y muy irregular, mi rendimiento ha disminuido y tengo más problemas de plagas y enfermedades."Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, Enero, 2010

Intro Perceptions

©Neil Palmer

PerceptionsIntro

©Neil Palmer

• Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee SuitabilityOVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN, Christian

• Integrated CC Impact Assessment of the Coffee sectorBUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael

Outline

©Neil Palmer

Outline

Sequential Modelling approach• Spatially Explicit Impacts• Land Use Change

Outline

Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Suitability

OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN, Christian

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionFramework Global Impact of CC on Coffee Suitability

ObjectivePredict the global impact of climate change on coffee suitability.

Area of study – GPS-referenced locations are distributed over 19 countries

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionMethodology Overall Approach

Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs –

SRES_A2

Statistical Downscaling of

Climate Information

Species Distribution Modeling –MaxEnt

β r=o.o5 Back =20000

Future Climatesat Local scaleCoffee Suitability

Inputs

Process

Output

Geo-referenced Coffee farms.

Worldclim – Current Climate

(19 bioclimaticvariables)

2030 2050

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults MaxEnt - Parameterization

>10000 “background” may be needed if the number of presence

points is large (Phillips & Dudı 2008)

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1.

Central America and Mexico coffee farms 2030 2050

Annual average temperature change + 1,4 °C + 2,1°C

Annual change in precipitation - 50 mm - 70 mm

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Uncertainty Analysis of MaxEnt output using multiple GCMs

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Environmental factors which drive the suitability of coffee (Zone1)

Regression analysis of variables:- Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation drive

change- Fore sign of impact depends on altitude

Low

High

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionSummary

Conclusions Impacts are site specific

- Low altitudes lose most- Countries with available area in high altitudes gain

Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation patterns drive change

Maxent modeling should be done on a high resolution

For sub-regional impact assessments local models are recommended

Outline

Integrated CC Impact Assessment of the Coffee sector

BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH,

Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael

Outline

Sequential Modelling approach• Spatially Explicit Impacts• Land Use Change

Motivation

The suitability for coffee production is changing

How does Arabica production change relative to Robusta?

Where are future production regions?

Is there pressure on deforestation?

Objectives

• Demonstrate SDM approach for integrated impact modeling

• Combine impacts on coffee with impacts in other sectors to model interactions

• Compare Scenarios, Policies and economic implications

SUPPLY

Process

DEMAND

Wood products Food Bioenergy

G4M

Exogenous driversPopulation, GDP

Primary wood

products

Crops

Country HRU*PX30

PX5

SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and

Cropland management systems

reference for geo-coded data on crop management;

input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;

LC&LUstat

PROCESS

PX5

Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class

PX5

Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;

Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;

Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;

HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil

Biophysical models

Between 10*10 km and 50*50

km

Aggregation in larger units

(max 200*200 km)

EPIC RUMINANT

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA

Climate Soil and topographyManagemen

tLand cover

AGRICULTURE FORESTRY

28 regions

Globiom Partial Equilibrium Modeling

• Model impacts on Robusta– Similar to Arabica impact model

• Model Spatially explicit area data– Downscaling of FAO data using USDA information

• Model Spatially explicit yield data– Derive a function dependent on suitability

Globiom Coffee Integration

Ovalle et al 2012

Robusta Global CC Impacts

Downscaling

Downscaling

s.t.

Where A = Areai= Model unit

Downscaling

Yield Potential

• A2 – Scenario - Increasing

Population- Regional

Economic development

• Three climate models- CNRM CM3- MRI CGCM 2.3.2- UKMO HadGem1- Baseline

Globiom Macro Scenario

Globiom Key Results

Globiom Key Results

Globiom Key Results

Upcoming Projects

• Evaluate Adaptation policies

• Include a process model of coffee

• Differentiate demand

• More data• Data on CO2 stocks and Fertilizer use• Regional Trade-off model of Adaptation and Mitigation• Water constraint

Next Steps Upcoming Projects

Summary

Conclusion

• Species distribution Modeling can be used for integrated CC Assessments with little prior knowledge

• Without market differentiation Robusta will be the dominant crop

• Asia may be a climate change winner, Brazil a loser

• R&D in coffee will be the key to Adaptation

Summary

Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

Peter Läderach (CIAT)p.laderach@cgiar.org

Oriana Ovalle (CIAT)o.ovalle@cgiar.org

Christian Bunn (CIAT/HU Berlin)Christian.Bunn@HU-Berlin.de

¡Gracias!

Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production

C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M ObersteinerThe 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012