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Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production
C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M ObersteinerThe 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012
About CIAT
International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Leader DAPA: Dr. Andrew Jarvis
CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS
…about 100 researchers
• CIAT: One of 15 CGIAR Centers
• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture.
• Coffee: About 35 researchers work in two fields, access to high value markets and vulnerability to climate change.
About CIAT
"El clima se ha convertido en impredecible, ahora llueve menos y muy irregular, mi rendimiento ha disminuido y tengo más problemas de plagas y enfermedades."Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, Enero, 2010
Intro Perceptions
©Neil Palmer
PerceptionsIntro
©Neil Palmer
• Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee SuitabilityOVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN, Christian
• Integrated CC Impact Assessment of the Coffee sectorBUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael
Outline
©Neil Palmer
Outline
Sequential Modelling approach• Spatially Explicit Impacts• Land Use Change
Outline
Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Suitability
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN, Christian
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionFramework Global Impact of CC on Coffee Suitability
ObjectivePredict the global impact of climate change on coffee suitability.
Area of study – GPS-referenced locations are distributed over 19 countries
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionMethodology Overall Approach
Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs –
SRES_A2
Statistical Downscaling of
Climate Information
Species Distribution Modeling –MaxEnt
β r=o.o5 Back =20000
Future Climatesat Local scaleCoffee Suitability
Inputs
Process
Output
Geo-referenced Coffee farms.
Worldclim – Current Climate
(19 bioclimaticvariables)
2030 2050
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults MaxEnt - Parameterization
>10000 “background” may be needed if the number of presence
points is large (Phillips & Dudı 2008)
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1.
Central America and Mexico coffee farms 2030 2050
Annual average temperature change + 1,4 °C + 2,1°C
Annual change in precipitation - 50 mm - 70 mm
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Uncertainty Analysis of MaxEnt output using multiple GCMs
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionResults Environmental factors which drive the suitability of coffee (Zone1)
Regression analysis of variables:- Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation drive
change- Fore sign of impact depends on altitude
Low
High
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionSummary
Conclusions Impacts are site specific
- Low altitudes lose most- Countries with available area in high altitudes gain
Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation patterns drive change
Maxent modeling should be done on a high resolution
For sub-regional impact assessments local models are recommended
Outline
Integrated CC Impact Assessment of the Coffee sector
BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH,
Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael
Outline
Sequential Modelling approach• Spatially Explicit Impacts• Land Use Change
Motivation
The suitability for coffee production is changing
How does Arabica production change relative to Robusta?
Where are future production regions?
Is there pressure on deforestation?
Objectives
• Demonstrate SDM approach for integrated impact modeling
• Combine impacts on coffee with impacts in other sectors to model interactions
• Compare Scenarios, Policies and economic implications
SUPPLY
Process
DEMAND
Wood products Food Bioenergy
G4M
Exogenous driversPopulation, GDP
Primary wood
products
Crops
Country HRU*PX30
PX5
SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
reference for geo-coded data on crop management;
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
LC&LUstat
PROCESS
PX5
Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class
PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Biophysical models
Between 10*10 km and 50*50
km
Aggregation in larger units
(max 200*200 km)
EPIC RUMINANT
SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA
Climate Soil and topographyManagemen
tLand cover
AGRICULTURE FORESTRY
28 regions
Globiom Partial Equilibrium Modeling
• Model impacts on Robusta– Similar to Arabica impact model
• Model Spatially explicit area data– Downscaling of FAO data using USDA information
• Model Spatially explicit yield data– Derive a function dependent on suitability
Globiom Coffee Integration
Ovalle et al 2012
Robusta Global CC Impacts
Downscaling
Downscaling
s.t.
Where A = Areai= Model unit
Downscaling
Yield Potential
• A2 – Scenario - Increasing
Population- Regional
Economic development
• Three climate models- CNRM CM3- MRI CGCM 2.3.2- UKMO HadGem1- Baseline
Globiom Macro Scenario
Globiom Key Results
Globiom Key Results
Globiom Key Results
Upcoming Projects
• Evaluate Adaptation policies
• Include a process model of coffee
• Differentiate demand
• More data• Data on CO2 stocks and Fertilizer use• Regional Trade-off model of Adaptation and Mitigation• Water constraint
Next Steps Upcoming Projects
Summary
Conclusion
• Species distribution Modeling can be used for integrated CC Assessments with little prior knowledge
• Without market differentiation Robusta will be the dominant crop
• Asia may be a climate change winner, Brazil a loser
• R&D in coffee will be the key to Adaptation
Summary
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
Peter Läderach (CIAT)[email protected]
Oriana Ovalle (CIAT)[email protected]
Christian Bunn (CIAT/HU Berlin)[email protected]
¡Gracias!
Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production
C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M ObersteinerThe 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012
