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“An efficient transformation to a lower carbon economy “
Mulhouse, 06.12.2013
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World GHG Emissions
Source: Analysis by Ecofys – flow chart 2010
*Fossil Fuel related emissions
*Direct emissions (i.e. livestock CH4 emissions, Co2 emissions from cutting down trees)
3
Changing dynamics in the energy sector are putting current energy architecture under pressure
Global Energy Demand, 1990-2035
TPED – Mtoe - new policies scenarios
Sources: IEA (WEO 2013), World Bank, IEA (WEO 2013)
World Bank Energy Price Index
2010=100, Real 2010 US$ terms*
Energy-related CO2 emissions by region
Mt CO2 – new policies scenarios
OECD
Non-OECDNon-OECD
OECD - EuropeOECD - Asia/Oceania
OECD - Americas
Recession
"Super-cycle"of developing world
growth
OECD
Non-OECD
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Energy transitions are more complex than ever before
5
Energy Architecture Objectives
Through the New Energy Architecture the Forum seeks to measure the transitions across an “Energy Triangle”
“Social”
Industry
Govern-ment
Civil Society
“Physical”“Physical”
Carriers
Energy Sources
Markets & Demand Sectors
EnergyAccess & Security
Economic Growth & Development
Environmental Sustainability
“Energy Triangle”
“Boundary Constraints”
Water availability
Hydrocarbon
reserves
Geo
grap
hic
setti
ng
& c
limat
e
Land availability
Physical elements: Includes energy sources, their carriers and end markets.
Social elements: Includes political institutions, industry and civil society, which shape the physical elements.
The Energy Triangle: Ultimate objectives that the energy architecture is designed to support.
Boundary constraints: Factors limiting performance against the energy triangle, both physical and social.
Definitions
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The analysis of the New Energy Architecture initiative highlights policy, market structures, technology and human capital as the key enabling factors for effective transitions
The four enabling pillars
HUMAN CAPITAL
TECHNOLOGYPOLICY MARKET STRUCTURES
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A single factor does not drive a transition on its own: the ecosystem of enabling pillars must come together
Technical advances in Hydraulic fracturing
O&G workforce
Regulatory framework
Market with small independent producers
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Interconnectedness of energy systems: individual transitions can have a wider reach and impact and cause negative transitions
$ $
10
Conclusions
There is a clear and significant transformation on-going in the global energy system
An integrated approach is critical
Trade-offs are often necessary
New Technologies are available
Sustainability needs more attention
Appendix
12
How does business interact with climate goal?
Lowering cost base
Energy literacyConsumer demandBrand image
Profitability
13
Fossil fuels are still dominating the energy landscape
Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
Global energy demandTPED, bn toe
1990.00
1991.00
1992.00
1993.00
1994.00
1995.00
1996.00
1997.00
1998.00
1999.00
2000.00
2001.00
2002.00
2003.00
2004.00
2005.00
2006.00
2007.00
2008.00
2009.00
2010.00
2011.00
2012.00
2013.00
2014.00
2015.00
2016.00
2017.00
2018.00
2019.00
2020.00
2021.00
2022.00
2023.00
2024.00
2025.00
2026.00
2027.00
2028.00
2029.00
2030.00
2031.00
2032.00
2033.00
2034.00
2035.00
2036.00
2037.00
2038.00
2039.00
2040.00
0
5
10
15
20International bunkers
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD
14
Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicator conceptual framework
• Efficiency
• Affordability / Lack of price distortion
• Supports / detracts from growth
• Emissions impact
• Ratio of low carbon fuels in the energy mix
• Diversity of supply
• Level and quality of access
• Self-sufficiency / multi-lateral markets
ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX
How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure and allowing universal access to consumers?
KEY QUESTION
ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY
QU
ANTI
TATI
VE MEASURES: MEASURES: MEASURES:
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Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicators
ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX
How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure
and allowing universal access to consumers?
ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY
OBJECTIVES KPIS
Emissions impact
• Efficiency of electricity production – CO2 from electricity and heat generation/kWh
• Nitrous oxide emissions in energy sector (thou. metric tons of CO2 equivalent)/Total Population
• Methane emissions in energy sector (thou. metric tons of CO2 equivalent)/Total Population
• Emissions intensity – PM10, country level (mg per m3)
• Average Fuel Economy for Passenger vehicle fleet (l/100km)
Ratio of low carbon fuels in the energy mix
• Alternative and Nuclear energy as share of total consumption (%)
OBJECTIVES KPIS
Diversity of supply
• Diversity of Total Primary Energy Supply (Herfindahl index)
• Diversification of net import counterparts by country (Herfindahl index)
Level and quality of access
• Electrification (% of population)• Quality of electricity supply
(Survey score between 1 – 7)• Percentage of population using
solid fuels for cooking (%)
Self-sufficiency
• Import Dependence (Energy Imports, net % energy use)
QU
ANTI
TATI
VE
OBJECTIVES KPIS
Efficiency • Energy Intensity (GDP per unit of energy use (PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
Affordability • Degree of artificial distortion to gasoline pricing (index)
• Degree of artificial distortion to diesel pricing (index)
• Electricity Prices for Industry (U.S. Dollars per Kilowatt hour)
Supportive / detracts from growth
• Cost of energy imports (% GDP)• Value of energy exports (% GDP)
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