A Grande Depressão Mitos e Fatos - Continental Economics · Grande Depressão O capitalismo livre...

A Grande DepressãoMitos e Fatos

Antony P. Mueller (UFS)

www.continentaleconomics.com

1 de julho de 2019

Mitologia da Grande

Depressão

O capitalismo livre entrou numa grave crise em 1929

O Presidente Hoover (1929-1933) não intervém

Franklin Delano Roosevelt toma posse em Março 1933 e aplica medidas expansivas (keynesianas)

O aumente dos gastos de governo fez que a economia americana se recuperou

Roosevelt salvou o capitalismo com as intervenções governamentais

Lição: O capitalismo precisa do governo para recuperar de crises econômicas

A Grande Depressão

A Grande Depressão

O Grande Boom

A Grande Contração

O Grande Colapso

A Grande Duração

A LongaExpansão

A Grande Recuperação

Indicadores 1929-1932

United

States

Great

BritainFrance Germany

Industrial production –46% –23% –24% –41%

Wholesale prices –32% –33% –34% –29%

Foreign trade –70% –60% –54% –61%

Unemployment +607% +129% +214% +232%

Fonte: Jerome Blum, Rondo Cameron, Thomas G. Barnes, The European world: a history (2nd ed 1970) page 885

Gastos públicos do governo Hoover

Hoover insisted that industrial leaders keep wages high. Real average hourly earnings in manufacturing increased from 1929 in 1931, even as production dropped by nearly half.

Presidente Hoover insistiu em que os líderes industriais mantivessem os salários altos (fortalezer a demanda) O rendimento médio real por hora na produção aumentou de 1929 em 1931, mesmo com a produção caindo quase pela metade.

Medidas da presidência de Hoover 1929-1933

1929• March 4, 1929 Herbert Hoover was

inaugurated as 31st President of the United States.

• June 15, 1929 After Hoover called a specialsession of Congress, the AgriculturalMarketing Act was passed, which establisheda Federal Farm Board that worked to stabilizeagricultural prices.

• October The Wall Street stock marketcrashed, which signaled the beginning of theGreat Depression.

• November 19, 1929 Hoover began a series ofmeetings with business, labor andgovernment leaders called the conference forContinued Industrial Progress in which he secured pledges to maintain currentemployment and wage levels.

1930• January 1930 Hoover instituted a vigorous public

works program in which he authorized $635 millionfor construction projects.

• February 3, 1930 Hoover appointed Charles Evans Hughes Chief Justice of the Supreme court.

• June 17, 1930 Hoover signed the Smoot-HawleyTariff into law which set tariffs to historically high levels.

• July 21, 1930 Hoover combined all federal servicesinto one agency, the Veterans Administration.

• September 17, 1930 The Hoover Dam in Navadawas dedicated, marking the start of construction. Itwas completed in 1936.

• October 21, 1930 Hoover created the President'sEmergency Committee for Employment, whichpromoted private sector responses tounemployment

Year Description

1933 EBA Emergency Banking Act March 9 declaration of nationwide bank holiday

“ CCC Civilian Conservation Corps

“ TVA Tennessee Valley Authority

“ AAA Agricultural Adjustment Administration

“ FERA Federal Emergency Relief Administration

“ NRA National Recovery Administration

“ FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

“ PWA Public Works Administration

“ CWA Civil Works Administration

“ FAA Federal Aviation Administration

“ HOLC Home Owners Loan Corporation

1934 FCC Farm Credit Administration

GRA Gold Reserve Act - confiscation of private gold possessions

“ FHA Federal Housing Administration

“ NLRB National Labor Relations Board (Wagner Act)

“ SEC Securities Exchange Commission

1935 NYA National Youth Administration

“ SSA Social Security Administration

“ FSA Farm Security Administration

“ DRS Drought Relief Service

“ RA Resettlement Administration

1938 USHA United States Housing Authority

1939 FWA Federal Works Agency

Medidas na presidência de Roosevelt 1933-1939

Estados Unidos: Desemprego, crescimento,

preços e moeda, 1929-1942

Moeda nominal e real

Taxa de juros nominal e real

Taxa de desemprego

A Grande Estagnação

no Reino Unido

Teoria Geral de Keynes –fevereiro 1936

• “No entanto a teoria da produção como um todo, que é o que o livro propõe expor, seria muito mais facilmente adaptada às condições de um Estado totalitário do que a teoria da produção e distribuição de um volume dado em condições de livre-concorrência e uma ampla dose de laissez-faire ...”

• John Maynard Keynes, prefácio da edição alemã, setembro 1936

Modelo keynesiano

• Decline of investmentbecause of faltering'animal spirits'

• Fall of aggregatedemand

Trigger

• Contraction ofproduction

• Lay-offs

• Fall of consumptionspending

Amplifier• Further contraction

of production

• More unemployment

• More fall of demand

Crisis

Modelo monetarista

• Contraction of themoney supply

• Economiccontraction

Trigger

• Credit contraction

• Fall of output

• Lay-offs

Amplifier• Further fall of

money supply

• More economiccontraction

Crisis

Armadilha de liquidez no modelo ISLM

ISLM contração

contra expansão

Efeito da deflação sobre

a taxa real de juros

• 𝑖𝑡 = 𝑟 + 𝜋𝑡+1𝑒

• 𝑟 = 𝑟𝑛

• 𝑟𝑡−1 = 𝑖𝑡−1 − 𝜋𝑡−1

• 𝑟 = 𝑖 − 𝜋

• 𝜋 < 0 ⇔ 𝑟 = 𝑖 − (−𝜋)

Modelo ISLM da Grande Depressão

Taxa nominal e real dos salários

Sistema monetário internacional 1919-1930

Source: Charles P. Kindleberger: "The World in Depression" (Anniversary Edition 2013)The chart shows the monthly decline in world trade from 2998 million to 992 million gold dollars based on the total world imports from January 1929 to March 1933

Efeito “Smoot-Hawley”

Robert Higgs, Regime Uncertainty, The Independent, Spring 1997http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf

Bolsa de valores.

Índice S&P’s 1920-1950

Modelo de juros

negativos na deflação

Base Monetária

Estados Unidos

Taxas de juros negativas da

Alemanha (títulos)

O que fazer na crise? Os Keynesianos e os Novo Keynesianos em comparação com os Clássicos-Austríacos

Macroeconomic

Policies

Keynesian and New

Keynesians Models

Classical-Austrian model

Business Bailouts LiquidatePrice level Re-inflate Let deflation run its courseCredit expansion Re-try money expansion Stop money expansionWage rate Support current wage level Let wage level fallConsumption Stimulate consumption Discourage consumptionSavings Discourage savings Stimulate savingsEmployment Subsidize unemployment Discourage unemploymentInterest rate Move nominal rates to zero

bound

Let market find the natural

level

Referências

• Blanchard, Olivier: Macroeconomia, Pearsons

• MUELLER, Antony (P.) A Teoria Austríaca do Ciclo de Negócios na Perspectiva do Modelo GSMS. MISES. Revista Interdisciplinar de Filosofia, Direito e Economia, v. II, p. 150-162, 2014.

• MUELLER, Antony (P.) Beyond Keynes and the Classics. Procesos de Mercado, v. 11, p. 111-135, 2014. http://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4980988

• Rothbard, Murray: A grande depressão americana, Mises Brasil

• http://www.mises.org.br/Ebook.aspx?id=76

• New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis Author(s): Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian Source: The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 112, No. 4 (Aug., 2004), pp. 779-816 Published by: The University of Chicago Press https://campus.fsu.edu/bbcswebdav/users/jcalhoun/Courses/Growth_of_American_Economy/Chapter_Supplemental_Readings/Chapter_23/Cole-New_Deal_Policies_and_the_Persistence_of_the_GD.pdf